Inflection Point

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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the continued Bitcoin ETF inflows as they surpass $4 billion and increasing each day. We then deep dive into the huge earnings beat from Coinbase & the path forward for 2024 as the Bitcoin halving approaches. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, David Choi Founder of MetStreet Labs joins the show to discuss a viral thread he wrote on the GBTC "widowmaker" trade that blew up in 2021. We deep dive into the mechanics of the GBTC arbitrage trade, the role of Bitcoin lenders (BlockFi, Genesis) & how the unwind of the GBTC widowmaker trade dragged down the industry in 2021 - 2022.

We then compare to todays market conditions and why 2024 & beyond may be a more sustainable market environment for crypto. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Read David's thread here: https://twitter.com/0xZergs/status/1746126672451993999?s=20

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(00:00) Introduction

(02:47) The GBTC Arbitrage Trade

(08:44) Structure Of The Trade

(15:24) BlockFi, Genesis & GBTC

(19:18) MANTRA Ad

(20:39) The Bitcoin Lending Market

(23:11) When The GBTC Trade Started To Spiral

(29:29) DAS London Plug

(30:45) Unwinding The Trade

(38:53) Current State Of The Market

(46:10) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, Mike & Mark give an update on the Bitcoin ETFs as Grayscale outflows continue to slow down, as Bitcoin approaches $50,000 & stock markets continue to reach new record highs. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, Travis Kling CIO of Ikigai Asset Management joins the show for a discussion on his bullish thesis for 2024.

With Stock markets at all-time highs, a rate cutting cycle expected in 2024 & the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, Travis makes the case that he expects potential tailwinds into the coming year for both crypto & markets broadly. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:37) Travis' 2024 Thesis

(03:10) DAS London Plug

(04:27) Stock Markets Break ATHs, What About Crypto?

(14:05) The Bitcoin ETFs

(20:54) Trading Crypto Cycles

(26:07) Blockworks Research Ad

(26:55) Financial Nihilism

(39:26) Valuation & Reflexivity In Crypto

(45:02) Infrastructure vs Applications

(52:51) Can Crypto Disrupt Walled Gardens?

(56:36) Travis' Macro Outlook In 2024

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, Mike & Mark give an update on the Bitcoin ETFs as Grayscale outflows begin to slow down. We then discuss this weeks FOMC, the QRA & Meta's blowout earnings. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.

VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/

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This week, Joseph Wang CIO at Monetary Macro joins the show to discuss the latest in markets after Jerome Powell's FOMC conference.

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:41) Joseph's View on Jan FOMC: "This Was A Hawkish Fed Conference"

(07:51) Joseph's View On Asset Prices

(10:04) Joseph's View on Rates

(20:52) Vaneck Ad

(21:37) The Plumbing Of How The Government & Fed Prints Money

(32:41) Treasury Issuance (QRA, Quarterly Refunding Announcement)

(39:01) Joseph's View on Fed's Quantitative Tightening (QT): Taper Could Likely Begin In Q4 2024

(44:57) Fed's Plan For Discount Window & End Of Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP)

(49:31) Joseph Wang: Fiscal Deficits Will Likely Continue To Fuel Bull Market In Risk Assets

(52:19) Concentration of Stock Market Rally

(01:00:12) Jack Puts On Tin Foil Hat Re: Fed Language & New York Community Bank (NYCB)

(01:02:44) Closing Thoughts: Plumbing People Are Not Always Bearish!!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, Mike & Mark discuss Tesla's disappointing earnings, the stock market rally as liquidity has resurged & the current state of the Bitcoin & crypto markets. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, Darius Dale Founder of 42 Macro joins the show for a discussion on the current state of asset markets.

With the recession that never came to be, stock markets hovering around all time highs & Fed rate cuts in 2024, Darius makes the case that markets are pricing in goldilocks & a 2024 soft landing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:39) Markets Are Pricing Goldilocks

(06:29) The Recession That Never Came To Be

(10:55) DAS London Plug

(12:11) 2024 Elections & Janet Yellen's Liquidity Supportive Impulse

(15:25) The Highest Probability Is A Soft Landing In 2024

(21:10) Inflation

(27:06) Rate Cuts In 2024

(30:10) Blockworks Research Ad

(30:58) Oil

(33:21) What Is Happening In China?

(39:56) Bitcoin

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, Mike & Mark discuss whether the Bitcoin ETFs were successful or not? Despite large flows into the Bitcoin ETF products, outflows from Grayscale's ETF have contributed to price declines post ETF launch. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Access liquidity on centralised exchanges through Copper’s off-exchange collateral management and settlement solution. To find out more about ClearLoop visit: https://bit.ly/3SnJI5r

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, Jonah Van Bourg Director at Onyx & Former Global Head of Trading at DRW joins the show for a discussion on his 2024 outlook for both commodity and crypto markets. We deep dive into Jonah's Bitcoin thesis, the U.S debt end game & the outlook for an Ethereum ETF in 2024 & beyond. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount. https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a...

Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(05:05) Trading Crypto & Commodities

(14:03) Copper Ad

(18:04) Macro Outlook In 2024

(28:22) The Debt End Game

(31:05) The Bitcoin ETFs

(35:55) Das London Plug

(37:12) The Bitcoin Thesis

(44:53) The Crypto Thesis

(48:54) Ethereum ETF

(55:18) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.