That's right. I said Part 1. The acceleration continues.

I do not intend to let this be a regular thing. I will (once again!) be raising the bar for what gets included going forward to prevent that. But for now, we’ve hit my soft limit, so I’m splitting things in two, mostly by traditional order but there are a few things, especially some videos, that I’m hoping to get to properly before tomorrow, and also I’m considering spinning out my coverage of The OpenAI Files.

Tomorrow in Part 2 we’ll deal with, among other things, several new videos, various policy disputes and misalignment fun that includes the rising number of people being driven crazy.

Table of Contents

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Outline:

(00:53) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility

(03:12) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility

(09:53) Humans Do Not Offer Mundane Utility

(10:59) Langage Models Should Remain Available

(12:51) Get My Agent On The Line

(15:45) Have My Agent Call Their Agent

(18:09) Beware Prompt Injections

(21:13) Unprompted Attention

(23:18) Huh, Upgrades

(26:02) Memories

(27:56) Cheaters Gonna Cheat Cheat Cheat Cheat Cheat

(36:40) On Your Marks

(40:05) Fun With Media Generation

(41:20) Copyright Confrontation

(45:13) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon

(50:28) Liar Liar

(52:25) They Took Our Jobs

(54:18) No, Not Those Jobs

(58:37) All The Jobs Everywhere All At Once

(01:04:44) The Void

(01:05:58) Into the Void

(01:06:49) The Art of the Jailbreak

(01:07:18) Get Involved

(01:07:32) Introducing

(01:07:55) In Other AI News

(01:13:26) Show Me the Money

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Google recently came out with Gemini-2.5-0605, to replace Gemini-2.5-0506, because I mean at this point it has to be the companies intentionally fucking with us, right?

Google: Our updated Gemini 2.5 Pro Preview continues to excel at coding, helping you build more complex web apps. We’ve also added thinking budgets for more control over cost and latency. GA is coming in a couple of weeks…

We’re excited about this latest model and its improved performance. Start building with our new preview as support for the 05-06 preview ends June 19th.

Sundar Pichai (CEO Google): Our latest Gemini 2.5 Pro update is now in preview.

It's better at coding, reasoning, science + math, shows improved performance across key benchmarks (AIDER Polyglot, GPQA, HLE to name a few), and leads @lmarena_ai with a 24pt Elo score jump since the previous version.

We also heard your feedback [...]

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Outline:

(02:06) What's In A Name

(02:49) On Your Marks

(08:05) Gemini 2.5 Flash Lite Preview

(08:24) The Model Report

(11:33) Safety Testing

(15:17) General Reactions to Gemini 2.5-Pro 0605

(16:48) The Personality Upgrades Are Bad

(19:36) The Lighter Side

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You can now have o3 throw vastly more compute at a given problem. That's o3-pro.

Should you have o3 throw vastly more compute at a given problem, if you are paying the $200/month subscription price for ChatGPT Pro? Should you pay the $200, or the order of magnitude markup over o3 to use o3-pro in the API?

That's trickier. Sometimes yes. Sometimes no. My experience so far is that waiting a long time is annoying, sufficiently annoying that you often won’t want to wait. Whenever I ask o3-pro something, I often also have been asking o3 and Opus.

Using the API at scale seems prohibitively expensive for what you get, and you can (and should) instead run parallel queries using the chat interface.

The o3-pro answers have so far definitely been better than o3, but the wait is usually enough to break my workflow and [...]

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Outline:

(03:07) o3-Pro Versus o3

(06:07) Give Me a Minute

(07:33) On Your Marks

(10:04) Reactions

(23:30) Brevity Is The Soul Of Wit

(24:08) Where Art Thou O System Card

(27:05) The Price Drop on o3

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Overall Take

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Outline:

(00:45) Overall Take

(03:04) RTFB: The RAISE Act

(03:26) Definitions: Frontier Model

(07:24) Definitions: Critical Harm

(08:59) Definition: Safety Incident

(10:22) You Have To Report Safety Incidents The Way We Report Cybersecurity Breaches

(11:31) Definition: Safety and Security Protocol (SSP)

(12:31) You Have To Have And Implement An SSP

(13:44) You Have To Not Release Models That Would Create An Unreasonable Risk Of Critical Harm

(13:59) You Shall Not Knowingly Make False Or Materially Misleading Statements or Omissions

(14:10) What Are The Consequences?

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It's always a nice break to see what else is going on out there.

Bad News

Study finds sleep in male full-time workers falls as income rises, with one cause being other leisure activities substituting for sleep. It makes sense that sleep doesn’t cost money while other things often do, but the marginal cost of much leisure is very low. I don’t buy this as the cause. Perhaps reverse causation, those who need or prefer less sleep earn more money?

The productivity statistics continue to be awful, contra Alex Tabarrok part of this recent -3.88% Q1 print is presumably imports anticipating tariffs driving down measured GDP and thus productivity. The more I wonder what's wrong with the productivity statistics the more I think they’re just a terrible measure of productivity?

A model of America's electoral system that primary voters don’t know much about candidate positions [...]

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Outline:

(00:16) Bad News

(01:58) Rules of Confidentiality

(02:44) Something Is Wrong On The Internet

(06:21) Government Working

(08:39) Jones Act Watch

(09:05) Signatures as Solemnization

(12:12) Antisocial Media

(19:43) Technology Advances

(25:12) For Science!

(25:37) Variously Effective Altruism

(28:44) Lab Grown Meat Ban Redux

(36:04) Opportunity Knocks

(36:16) Good Books

(36:57) Commitment

(39:14) How To Pass On Generational Wealth

(42:21) Rain On Your Wedding Day

(44:14) Social Versus Transactional Exchanges

(48:24) While I Cannot Condone This

(54:07) Costly Signaling Is a Weird Name

(56:58) Travel en-US-AvaMultilingualNeural__ Trademark symbol (™) shown as large dark letters

(01:00:22) Good News, Everyone

(01:04:28) Put On a Happy Face

(01:06:44) Egg Prices Keep Going Up

(01:09:04) Cultural Stagnation

(01:11:54) For Your Entertainment

(01:22:33) Gamers Gonna Game Game Game Game Game

(01:27:00) I Was Promised Flying Self-Driving Cars

(01:31:06) The Lighter Side

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This week we got o3-Pro. As is my custom, I’m going to wait a bit so we can gather more information, especially this time since it runs so slowly. In some ways it's a cross between o3 and Deep Research, perhaps, but we shall see. Coverage to follow.

Also released this week was Gemini 2.5 Pro 0605, to replace Gemini 2.5 Pro 0506, I swear these AI companies have to be fucking with us with the names at this point. I’ll also be covering that shortly, it does seem to be an upgrade.

The other model release was DeepSeek-r1-0528, which I noted very much did not have a moment. The silence was deafening. This was a good time to reflect on the reasons that the original r1 release triggered such an overreaction.

In other news this week, Sam Altman wrote an essay The Gentle Singularity, trying [...]

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Outline:

(01:22) Language Models Offer Mundane Utility

(04:46) Language Models Don't Offer Mundane Utility

(06:13) Get My Agent on the Line

(06:43) Doge Days

(10:15) Liar Liar

(13:57) Huh, Upgrades

(15:59) On Your Marks

(17:32) Choose Your Fighter

(18:29) Retribution, Anticipation and Diplomacy

(23:46) Deepfaketown and Botpocalypse Soon

(27:12) Fun With Media Generation

(31:27) Unprompted Attention

(31:49) Copyright Confrontation

(33:46) The Case For Education

(40:04) They Took Our Jobs

(44:16) Get Involved

(45:01) Introducing

(47:30) In Other AI News

(48:50) Give Me a Reason(ing Model)

(51:41) Show Me the Money

(51:54) We Took Our Talents

(53:18) A Little Too Open Of A Model

(54:59) Meta Also Shows Us the Money

(58:10) Quiet Speculations

(01:02:51) Moratorium Madness

(01:07:09) Letter to the Editor

(01:13:40) The Quest for Sane Regulations

(01:15:42) I Was Just Following Purchase Orders

(01:23:32) The Week in Audio

(01:24:51) Rhetorical Innovation

(01:31:52) Claude For President Endorsement Watch

(01:33:05) Give Me a Metric

(01:35:08) Aligning a Smarter Than Human Intelligence is Difficult

(01:36:25) Misaligned!

(01:37:59) The Lighter Side

(01:40:48) We Apologize For The Inconvenience

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Thanks For the Memos

Prepare For High Weirdness

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Outline:

(00:09) Thanks For the Memos

(00:49) Prepare For High Weirdness

(02:59) Short Timelines

(04:13) Not Used To It

(05:16) Singularity, Singularity, Singularity, Singularity, Oh, I Don't Know (In That Order)

(09:31) They Took Our Fake Jobs

(11:43) There Isn't Going To Be a Merge \[Finish Meme Here\]

(13:10) Fun Little Detail About Compute

(13:41) Oh Look It's The Alignment Plan, And It's Solve Alignment

(19:55) The Plan After Solving Alignment Is To Muddle Through

(21:29) Supposedly Smooth Sailing

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Not Thinking Clearly

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Outline:

(00:53) Not Thinking Clearly

(01:59) Thinking Again

(07:24) Inability to Think

(08:56) In Brief

(10:01) What's In a Name

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A key question going forward is the extent to which making further AI progress will depend upon some form of continual learning. Dwarkesh Patel offers us an extended essay considering these questions and reasons to be skeptical of the pace of progress for a while. I am less skeptical about many of these particular considerations, and do my best to explain why in detail.

Separately, Ivanka Trump recently endorsed a paper with a discussion I liked a lot less but that needs to be discussed given how influential her voice might (mind you I said might) be to policy going forward, so I will then cover that here as well.

Dwarkesh Patel on Continual Learning

Dwarkesh Patel explains why he doesn’t think AGI is right around the corner, and why AI progress today is insufficient to replace most white collar employment: That continual learning is both [...]

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Outline:

(00:44) Dwarkesh Patel on Continual Learning

(09:43) Comparing Investments

(11:51) Comparing Predictions

(21:18) Others React to Dwarkesh Patel

(28:25) Ivanka Trump and The Era of Experience

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When r1 was released in January 2025, there was a DeepSeek moment.

When r1-0528 was released in May 2025, there was no moment. Very little talk.

Here is a download link for DeepSeek-R1-0528-GGUF.

It seems like a solid upgrade. If anything, I wonder if we are underreacting, and this illustrates how hard it is getting to evaluate which models are actually good.

What this is not is the proper r2, nor do we have v4. I continue to think that will be a telltale moment.

For now, what we have seems to be (but we’re not sure) a model that is solid for its price and status as an open model, but definitely not at the frontier, that you’d use if and only if you wanted to do something that was a very good fit and played to its strong suits. We likely shouldn’t [...]

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Outline:

(01:18) We Had a Moment

(05:31) The R2 Moment Will Matter

(08:28) On Your Marks

(16:22) In The News

(18:34) Other Reactions

(27:48) The Distillation Accusation

(30:35) It's Quietly Probably a Solid Model, Sir

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