Macro Mondays

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to unpack a seemingly contradictory macro setup, with the economy running hot despite slowing jobs growth and fading inflation. They break down Andreas’ latest convictions on where we are in the business cycle, and whether Kevin Warsh and the Fed are misreading the setup. 

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Timestamps:
00:23 - CPI Preview: Is Inflation Falling Faster Than Expected? 
01:11 - Why Tariff Refunds Could Keep US Inflation Low
05:28 - Oil, Hormuz, and Why the Energy Shock Looks Over
09:21 - Fed Rate Hikes: Is Kevin Warsh Misreading the Inflation Setup?
12:22 - Jobs, Growth, and the World Cup Hangover
14:33 - Is the US Business Cycle Approaching a Peak?
18:17 - South Korea Semiconductor Exports: The AI Signal to Watch
20:19 - Why Slower AI Growth Could Still Be Bullish for Chip Stocks
22:33 - Hyperscaler CapEx: When Does the AI Spending Boom Actually Slow?

#macromondays #macro #markets #investing #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno #stenoresearch #federalreserve #kevinwarsh #businesscycle #interestrates #markets #finance

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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down a dramatic start to the week, beginning with the rare coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention to support the yen and what the market reaction says about currencies, rates, and the future of the carry trade. They Unpack Donald Trump’s decision to postpone planned strikes on Iran in favor of renewed talks, and examine the implosion of Leopold Aschenbrenner’s highly leveraged AI hedge fund and what this means for the AI trade. 

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Monarch 
01:23 - US Intervention to Support the Yen: What Markets Need to Know
04:45 - Why the US Stepped Into the Japanese Yen Market
06:03 - Iran Talks Resume as Trump Calls Off Planned Strikes
07:32 - The Sinus-Wave War: Why Markets Are Panicking Less
08:49 - Oil Flows, Strait of Hormuz, and the Risk Premium Fading
11:16 - What Trump Really Needs From a New Iran Deal
14:07 - Inflation Is Falling Faster Than the Fed Realizes
18:40 - Strong PMI, Higher Real Rates, and the Momentum Selloff
19:48 - Microsoft vs Alphabet: The AI CapEx Accounting Divide
22:21 - Why Memory Chips Could Be More Valuable Than GPUs
24:56 - Inside Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Hedge-Fund Implosion
26:08 - Global Macro Opportunities and Why the Dollar Could Weaken

#macromondays #macro #markets #investing #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #andreassteno 

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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to examine the latest market topics, from how Kimi AI's breakthrough is reshaping the AI investment narrative to how escalations between the U.S. and Iran are reshaping energy markets. And what of Donald Trump's renewed accusations against China? Andreas and Mikkel get into it all.

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Timestamps:
01:30 - Kimi AI Shock: Has China Taken the Lead?
02:28 - Kimi K3 vs ChatGPT and Claude: What the Benchmarks Really Show
05:30 - Why China’s AI Catch-Up Could Boost Hardware Demand
08:22 - Software vs Semiconductors: Who Actually Loses From Cheaper AI?
14:39 - Momentum Crash: What Triggered the Sell-Off in AI Stocks?
16:43 - Iran War Escalates as the IRGC Rebuilds Its War Chest
21:24 - How Long Can the US Withstand the Oil Supply Disruption?
23:45 - Why Oil Is Unlikely to Break Above $100 Again
28:06 - Semiconductors, AI Infrastructure, and the Next Portfolio Opportunities

#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold

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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back with the latest Macro Mondays to discuss the latest escalation in the Middle East and what the impact might be; a slowdown in Korean chip exports and what it tells us about the health of the AI trade; and a worrying new trend in the U.S.-China rivalry.

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Timestamps:
00:22 - Strait of Hormuz Crisis Returns: Should Markets Worry? 
02:24 - Trump Wants the US to Control the Strait of Hormuz
03:53 - Oil Flows, Dark Tankers, and the Real Supply Risk
06:12 - How Long Can the US and China Cover the Oil Shortfall?
08:29 - Jet Fuel, Diesel, and the Inflation Risk Markets Are Missing
10:22 - CPI Preview: Could Inflation Surprise Sharply Lower?
15:23 - Memory Stocks, Semiconductor Demand, and the AI CapEx Boom
19:18 - South Korea Exports: Has the Memory Trade Finally Peaked?
22:58 - ASML Earnings and the Next Test for AI Stocks
24:42 - US-China Decoupling, Critical Metals, and the Dollar Trade

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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to tackle one of the biggest questions in markets right now: have central banks misread the macro backdrop? They break down why inflation may be falling faster than policymakers expect, whether investors are once again wrong on oil, and discuss the political and economic implications of the FIFA World Cup.

00:22 - Macro Mondays: Inflation, Oil, Korea, and the Memory Trade 
03:41 - Inflation Is Rolling Over Faster Than Markets Expect
08:17 - Oil Outlook: Why the Hormuz Shock Never Became a Crisis
10:19 - Strait of Hormuz Bypass Trade and China’s Oil Buying Strike
13:03 - Why Iran Has Already Lost Leverage Over Hormuz
20:48 - Meta, AI Compute Demand, and Why CapEx Isn’t Slowing Down
22:57 - Korea Exports, HBM Demand, and the Next Leg of the Memory Trade
26:44 - Samsung Earnings, Hynix Listings, and What Comes Next for AI Stocks

#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics

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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back in an episode of Macro Mondays that covers why everyone is wrong-footed on U.S. dollar positioning, what the latest developments in the U.S.–Iran ceasefire are, and previews a consequential week for markets ahead, packed with Manufacturing PMI, Nonfarm Payrolls data, and Kevin Warsh's speech.

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00:22 - Macro Mondays Returns: Dollar, Hormuz, and Kevin Warsh Preview 
03:01 - June Winners and Losers: Memory Stocks, Biotech, and the Dollar
05:11 - Is the Hormuz War Back On or Is Oil Still Flowing?
09:11 - Is Everyone Wrong on the US Dollar?
13:34 - Kevin Warsh’s Big Test: Will the Fed Pivot Again?
17:42 - Jobs Report Preview: Why Payrolls Could Surprise Lower
20:32 - How to Position Your Portfolio Heading Into Summer Vacation
23:30 - AI Trade Check-In: Token Prices, Micron, and Memory Demand
27:30 - Apple, China Memory Chips, and the Next Consumer Scarcity Risk

#macromondays #realvision #andreassteno #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitcs #macro 

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Andreas Steno is back flying solo again to answer the question that matters most for markets right now: Is the oil still flowing? Andreas examines what we actually know about energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, how oil markets have responded, and why the feared supply shock never materialized.

01:00 - Macro Mondays: Is the Oil Still Flowing? What Markets Need to Know 
03:22 - Strait of Hormuz Reopens? What the Shipping Data Really Shows
05:25 - Oil, Jet Fuel, and Fertilizer Prices Are Rolling Over Fast
07:51 - Falling Inflation Changes the Entire Macro Regime
09:24 - Why Central Banks Still Haven’t Caught Up to the Disinflation Shift
13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs and the New AI Arms Race
17:51 - SpaceX IPO Mania and What It Says About Risk Appetite
19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Still Have Room to Run
22:45 - South Korea Exports and Why Semiconductors Still Look Strong
17:15 - Defining Therapeutics, Psychedelics, and the Next Big Micro Trade
19:35 - MicroStrategy, Bitcoin Risk, and What Actually Matters Now

#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision 

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Andreas Steno is back to break down recent market volatility, unpacking all the key drivers, from global liquidity dynamics to the evolving peace deal between the U.S. and Iran, which has seemingly opened the Strait of Hormuz. But is the deal actually done!?

00:07 - US-Iran Deal Nears: What It Means for Markets 
02:00 - Inside the 60-Day Iran Deal and Strait of Hormuz Reopening
04:37 - Oil Market Surplus: Why Crude Could Fall Below $70
08:02 - Iran Sanctions Lifted: The New Supply Shock for Global Oil
10:56 - ECB Rate Hike Timing Looks Worse After Hormuz Breakthrough
13:17 - Anthropic Export Curbs: Why AI Models Are Becoming Too Big to Fail
17:51 - SpaceX IPO Surge and What It Says About Risk Appetite
19:55 - IPO Boom, Liquidity, and Why This Cycle May Have Further to Run
21:08 - AI Token Pricing, OpenAI, and Anthropic Ahead of IPO Season
22:45 - South Korea Exports, Semiconductors, and the Next Leg of the AI Trade

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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down Red Friday and whether the market reaction to the latest jobs report was justified. They unpack what the data is really saying about growth, labor markets, liquidity, and the path for risk assets heading into summer.

Timestamps:
01:05 - Macro Mondays: Red Friday, Jobs Shock, and Middle East Risk
03:15 - Real Vision Updates, Alpha Access, and This Week’s Schedule
05:40 - What Actually Caused Friday’s Market Selloff?
07:21 - Nasdaq Damage, CTA Flows, and Why the Straight-Line Rally Is Over
09:45 - Was Friday a VaR Shock and What Happens Next?
12:06 - The Jobs Report, World Cup Hiring, and Why Payrolls Beat Expectations
14:07 - Kevin Warsh, the Fed, and Why Rate Cuts Just Got Harder
17:38 - SpaceX IPO, Big Tech Equity Raises, and the Liquidity Squeeze
22:01 - The One Chart to Watch: AI Token Pricing and the Data Center Trade
24:37 - Iran, Israel, and Why Markets Still Aren’t Panicking
27:24 - Oil, Fertilizer, and Why the Hormuz Crisis Trade Keeps Fading

#macro #andreassteno #macromondays #realvision #mikkelrosenvold #geopolitics #markets #Iran #jobs 

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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the key macro themes driving markets into June. From the latest developments in Iran to bottlenecks and bitcoin, they unpack what could become the next key trades, and whether liquidity and macro data can continue to support the meteoric rise in risk assets.

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01:06 - Macro Mondays: Iran Talks, ISM Strength, and June Trade Ideas 
02:30 - State of the Union Preview: Why Macro Still Drives Everything
04:34 - Strong ISM Print and Why US Manufacturing Keeps Accelerating
06:00 - Iran Talks Break Down Again: How Fragile Is the Ceasefire?
07:30 - Why Markets Are Still Taking the Iran Headlines in Stride
10:16 - How Long Can the Global Economy Handle a Closed Hormuz?
12:34 - June Outlook: Thematics, Trade Setups, and What Still Works
13:20 - Industrial Robotics, Real-World AI, and the Next Training Bottleneck
16:54 - Liquidity in June: Treasury Cash Drawdown and Easier Leverage
20:19 - Why Bitcoin Is the Only Risk Asset Not Joining the Rally
22:53 - Three Trades for June: Security Software, Server Makers, and Drones
27:19 - Claude, ServiceNow, and the New AI-Driven Momentum Trade

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