Macro Mondays

Real Vision’s Mikkel Rosenvold and Andreas Steno Larsen break down the latest market reaction to reports of a possible Strait of Hormuz deal, what it could mean for oil and inflation, and why the next phase of the market may depend on whether Middle East tensions truly de-escalate. They also explore a surprising inflation driver in hardware and semiconductors, explain why consumer spending is holding up better than many expect, and share the sectors they’re watching next.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Monarch Sponsor 
01:00 - Macro Mondays: Iran, Hormuz, and Global Markets
01:31 - Strait of Hormuz Deal Rumors and Market Reaction
02:50 - Europe’s Heat Wave and the Energy Debate
04:21 - Trump, Iran, and the Weekend Negotiation Push
06:01 - Can Trump Sell an Iran Deal to Republicans?
07:12 - Abraham Accords, Iran, and Middle East Strategy
07:59 - Oil Drops, Bond Yields Fall, and Markets Rally
09:11 - Are Iranian Ships Actually Moving Through Hormuz?
10:58 - Why Markets Care More About Hormuz Than Politics
13:03 - Inflation Outlook: Energy vs Consumer Prices
14:20 - Kevin Warsh, AI, and the Disinflation Argument
17:45 - Which Sectors Benefit Most From Inflation?
18:45 - Why AI Hardware Is Suddenly Inflationary
21:08 - The AI Memory Boom and Rising Electronics Prices
23:39 - Why Hardware Stocks Have Outperformed in 2026
24:02 - What Happens if Inflation Peaks in June?
25:20 - Consumer Spending Is Holding Up Surprisingly Well
27:01 - Amazon, Tesla, and Luxury Stocks as the Next Trade
28:11 - PCE Inflation Data: What Markets Need This Week
29:28 - Final Thoughts: Waiting on the Iran Deal

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Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the aftermath of the highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. They also dive into rising bond yields, whether markets should start worrying about rates again, and if the latest inflation reports signal something more persistent beneath the surface.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Monarch Sponsor
01:05 - Macro Mondays: Trump-Xi, Rates, Inflation, and Iran Hopeium
02:40 - Andrew Tate’s 30-Year Bond Trade and Why Long Yields Matter
06:03 - Why Rising Bond Yields May Not Mean What They Used To
10:20 - Hot CPI, PPI, and Why the Fed Still May Not Hike
14:40 - Iran Talks, Oil, and What Could Restart the Rally
16:39 - Why China-US Cooperation Is Keeping the Oil Market Balanced
19:22 - Will Trump Pivot Back to Rate Cuts After Iran?
23:06 - Semiconductors: Is It Time to Take Profits?
25:13 - Bernie Sanders, AI Data Centers, and the First Political Pushback
29:28 - UK Bonds, Fiscal Worries, and Why Political Risk May Be Overstated

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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down why today’s macro environment is starting to resemble 2021, from renewed concerns around the Hanta virus to rising input costs and supply chain pressures. Additionally, they assess the highly anticipated meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, and monitor the latest developments in peace talks for both Iran and Ukraine.

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Timestamps:
01:07 - Why 2026 Is Starting to Look Like 2021
03:17 - Hantavirus, Covid Flashbacks, and Why Markets Should Ignore It
06:30 - Easy Dollar Liquidity, SLR Reform, and the Return of Risk Appetite
11:27 - Tomorrow’s CPI Report and the Next Inflation Wave
13:29 - Iran, Oil, and Why Hormuz Is Fading as a Market Driver
15:03 - Trump-Xi Meeting: The Underreported Macro Event of the Week
17:30 - Best Portfolio Hedges for US-China Decoupling
22:21 - Iran, Ukraine, China: Could Easing Geopolitics Extend the Rally?
25:12 - End Consumer Scarcity: The New AI and Semiconductor Trade

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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold are back to break down the latest shifts in global markets, starting with fresh developments in the Strait of Hormuz, then they turn to the inflation outlook, and they tackle the AI narrative, asking whether the surge in capex and demand from mega-cap tech signals a bubble, as markets continue to climb despite widespread skepticism.

Timestamps:

01:07 - Macro Mondays: Hormuz Moves, Inflation Risks, and the AI Bubble
02:02 - Real Vision Portfolio Update and Why April Was Strong
02:44 - Microsoft Earnings, OpenAI Backlog, and the AI CapEx Debate
04:36 - Meta’s AI Spending Problem and Why the Backlog Isn’t There
07:06 - What Could Actually Burst the AI Bubble?
08:18 - Fed, ECB, and BOE Delay Hiking Talk as Hormuz Risk Builds
09:24 - Why the Fed Won’t Cut Rates Yet Under Kevin Warsh
10:19 - Project Freedom: The US Plan to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
11:13 - Trump’s Hormuz Announcement and Iran Missile Headlines
13:08 - Can Trump’s Move Break the Strait of Hormuz Deadlock?
14:20 - Why Iran Risks Looking Like the Aggressor if It Fires on Commercial Ships
16:27 - Why the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Hits Emerging Markets Hardest
19:17 - Why the West Can Still Pay Up for Oil and Food Supply
20:39 - Energy Shock, Imported Inflation, and the Real Risk to Western Economies
23:53 - Trump-Xi Summit Risks, Global Trade Chokepoints, & China Dependencies
26:46 - Solar Panels, Rare Earths, and the New Supply Chain Power Game

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Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz as a risk for global energy flows and supply chains continues to dominate headlines. They also zoom out to the global growth picture, exploring why sentiment remains bearish, yet equities continue to grind higher.

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Timestamps:

00:00 - Welcome to Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosendvold
01:06 - Real Vision Pro Portfolio Tracker
03:55 - Laughs of the Week: X Doom Posts & AI Slop
07:57 - Festus Montana: Data Center Backlash
09:30 - Energy Trade: Nuclear, Fuel Cells & Bloom Energy
11:17 - Macro Pivot: Iran Stalemate & Strategic Patience
13:27 - Crude & Jet Fuel On-Water Storage Analysis
15:51 - Negative Natural Gas Prices in Texas vs 2022 Crisis
17:46 - Geopolitical Risk vs Market Impact Disconnect
19:10 - Investor Sentiment Disconnect at All-Time Highs
21:14 - Goldman Prime Book: Low Hedge Fund Leverage
23:26 - Semiconductors Rally: South Korea Export Surge
25:10 - Mag 7 Cloud CapEx & The Next Power Trade
26:46 - EU & US Grid Operators Rationing New Plugins
27:30 - Live Show Copenhagen & Wrap-Up

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As the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran falters, bringing oil flows back under pressure, Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the geopolitical fallout, from jet fuel shortages to shifting supply dynamics.

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Timestamps:
00:00 - Welcome to Macro Mondays with Andreas Steno & Mikkel Rosendvold
01:06 - Is the War Back On? Jet Fuel Shortages and What’s Holding Markets Up
01:55 - Psychedelics Stocks Surge After Trump Executive Order
03:05 - This Week on Real Vision: Geopolitics AMA, Charting Macro, and Jim Bianco
04:24 - Iran Reverses Course and Closes the Strait of Hormuz Again
05:33 - Ship Attacks, Tanker Seizures, and Why the Weekend Escalation Matters
06:06 - Trump, Iran Talks, and the Latest Strait of Hormuz Flow Data
07:14 - Why the US and Western Economies Need Less Oil Than Before
09:20 - Jet Fuel Shortages in Europe: How Serious Is the Risk?
11:24 - Europe’s Flight Crunch and Why Airfares Are Exploding
13:19 - Southern Europe’s Tourism Hit and the Macro Impact of Fewer Flights
14:49 - What Europe’s 2022 Energy Shock Tells Us About Today’s Crisis
16:33 - Why This Energy Disruption Still Looks Manageable
17:36 - Can the Stock Market Rally Continue From Here?
18:04 - Why This Is Still a Hated Rally With Investors Underweight Risk
19:50 - Dollar Liquidity, Fed Reserve Management, and What’s Fueling Markets
22:19 - SLR Reform, Bank Leverage, and the Quiet Driver of the Rally
24:28 - ISM, Regional Fed Surveys, and Why US Growth Still Looks Strong
25:06 - Fed, ECB, and BOE: Are Rate Hikes Now Off the Table?
27:23 - Final Outlook: Talks on Wednesday and a Still-Bullish Macro View

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Geopolitics is still in focus after failed talks between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend and President Donald Trump's threat of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz from today. Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the implications of another oil spike, whether it could bring an inflation shock, and what it could mean for risk assets.

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As tensions between the U.S. and Iran drive volatility in oil markets and raise fresh inflation concerns, Andreas Steno Larsen and Mikkel Rosenvold break down the implications for global growth, central bank policy, and risk assets.

** We apologize for the less-than-optimal audio, Andreas was traveling and will be back in his normal setup next week **

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Steno Research founder and CEO, Andreas Steno, is back with co-host Mikkel Rosenvold, to dive into the latest headlines in macro. As the Iran war enters its fifth week, Andreas and Mikkel analyze a growing disconnect between market pricing and underlying macro risks, identifying key signals that investors may be overlooking.

#macro #iran #trump #dollar #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets

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Steno Research founder and CEO Andreas Steno is back with his co-host, Steno Research’s head of geopolitics, Mikkel Rosenvold, to break down the latest global drivers in macro. In this episode, with bond yields already rising and central banks under pressure, Andreas and Mikkel assess whether global markets are underpricing the inflation and energy shocks caused by the closure of the Straight of Hormuz.

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#macro #iran #trump #dollar #trumppolicies #macromondays #usd #dxy #nasdaq #dow #china #macrotrends #ratecuts #inflation #trumptariffs #trump #crypto #fed #powell #rates #economy #markets

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