Fixed income can provide investors with a stable, reliable income stream for a modest level of risk. If you’re staring down the barrel of sliding term deposit income, it might be a great solution that’s worth a look. For most private investors, a mix of New Zealand government or local authority bonds, combined with investment-grade corporate bonds is the optimum approach. Subordinated and hybrid securities can be a useful complement, but make sure you understand the nature of these and keep your weightings in check. For smaller investors, diversified fixed income or bond funds might be a very useful option.

This week, the focus will be on President Trump's tariffs, how markets react and whether we see any retaliation from major US trading partners. Key economic releases in the US this week will include the jobs report, the ISM indices and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. The global earnings season will be in focus again, with more than 100 S&P 500 companies due to report including Alphabet and Amazon. Here in New Zealand, the highlight will be the labour force report on Wednesday, which is expected to see unemployment rise above 5 per cent for the first time in more than four years.

Over the last month or two the Wall Street gurus have firmed up their forecasts for where the S&P 500 will finish 2025. The majority have a year-end estimate of between 6400 or 6600, which implies a gain of 9-12 per cent this year. That’s close to the long-term average return from US shares, which is (somewhat ironically) why I think most strategists could turn out to be wide of the mark.

The last week of January will be a busy one, with central banks in focus as the Federal Reserve in the US and the European Central Bank are set to announce their latest monetary policy decisions. It'll be a holiday-shortened week across the Tasman with markets closed on Monday, while Wednesday's December inflation report might pave the way for a February RBA rate cut. A big week of international earnings releases also looms, with four of the Magnificent 7 set to report!

The Federal Reserve in the US meets next week, and there’s a good chance they do nothing. That would see the upper bound of the Fed Funds Rate, the US version of our Official Cash Rate (OCR), remain at 4.50 per cent. With our OCR at 4.25 per cent, the unusual situation of us having a lower policy rate than the US is likely to persist a bit longer. In fact, if financial markets are correct this gap is likely to widen significantly. How might this impact the NZ dollar, and what could turn things around?

There were plenty of lessons for investors in 2024, as is the case every time we close the book on a calendar year. The one that stood out for me was the need to ensure your investments were globally diversified. If you didn’t do that and instead hunkered down in New Zealand assets, you didn’t enjoy the success you could’ve. Let's delve into some of the 2024 returns, from here and abroad, and highlight why it was so important to have your wealth spread far and wide.

The shares or property debate remains alive and well, especially in housing-obsessed New Zealand. Some property people will never touch shares. Likewise, some share investors see property as far too much work for a relatively modest reward. Shares and property have many fundamental value drivers in common, but they are also very different. Let's crunch the numbers to see which stacks up best, and compare the pros and cons of each.

There’s a lot of excitement out there amongst borrowers, particularly those with a mortgage renewal coming up. The message boards are full of people speculating on how low rates will go, and strategising how to play it for maximum advantage. While the optimism is justified, some caution applies as well. If you’re in the midst of that refixing decision, there are a couple of important points to be aware of.

As a new year begins, there are a raft of questions over what to expect from financial markets in 2025. Will the New Zealand economy recover from recession, how much further will interest rates fall, and what will that mean for the housing market? Investors are also pondering the outlook for the ailing local sharemarket, while speculating if the might S&P 500 can keep rising or if it's due for a fall. We'll try and answer some of those questions, with a few market predictions for 2025.

There’s a lot of good investment wisdom out there. Ensure you’re well-diversified, stick to quality assets, don’t overtrade and keep fees to a minimum are but a few examples. One of the simplest but most important, especially it comes to shares (or any growth asset, for that matter) is to maintain a long-term view. That can be difficult, especially during periods of uncertainty (which come frequently). However, it really is non-negotiable. If you don’t feel you can stick it out for at least five (if not ten) years, the sharemarket probably isn’t the right place for your money