Bilal Hafeez, CEO of Macro Hive, is a veteran of macro analysis and he joins today’s interview with some truly bold calls. Hafeez argues that a severe recession is coming but the Federal Reserve will continue to hike interest rates to 7 or even 8 percent in order to destroy inflation. Hafeez tells Farley that he thinks private markets (venture capital but in particular private equity) will perform poorly as earnings fall and financing costs rise sharply. Hafeez also shares his outlook on China, Energy, the U.S. Dollar, and crypto.

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To get 40% off on an annual subscription to Macro Hive Prime, go to https://macrohive.com/become-a-member/?add-to-cart=6308 and use promotional code “JACK.” Offer ends on January 6th, 2022.

Macro Hive Prime membership includes cross market strategy, economic analysis, central bank policy analysis, equity insights and trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, and academic paper summaries. To get a sense of the quality of Macro Hive’s analysis, check out Bilal’s piece on asset allocation: https://macrohive.com/hive-exclusives/asset-allocation-update-cash-wins-2022/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:42) Macro Outlook For 2023

(05:32) Severe Recession Incoming

(10:20) Complete Implosion" of Private Markets Is Gray Swan For 2023

(22:55) Venture Capital Is Already Feeling The Pain

(25:38) Other Grey Swans: TikTok & World Peace

(31:16) China

(38:15) Can China Print Its Way Out Of Its Mess?

(42:08) Bond Market Outlook

(49:39) Energy

(54:21) Is Europe In A Recession?

(55:51) How High Will Central Banks Raise Interest Rates?

(57:35) Discount To Macro Hive Prime

(01:00:24) The U.S. Dollar

(01:09:59) Crypto

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.