Saxo Market Call

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3x8E75q   -

In this long form update, Saxo Head of FX Strategy John Hardy runs through the factors that have helped support the US dollar recently, the confusing signals the US treasury market is throwing off as liquidity considerations dominate traditional drivers, the drivers and status on most of the G10 currencies and a few select EM stories as well. Listeners will find a number of useful charts in the slide deck link above.

This podcast was originally presented as a live webinar - for upcoming webinars, please visit https://www.home.saxo/insights/events-and-webinars and to view recordings together with original video) 

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ziuD9G   -

Today we look at very quiet markets ahead of what should be a highly anticipated US CPI release, but with a market concerned that it will be months before the "whether inflation is transitory" issue is settled. In any case, treasuries continue to be an unreliable indicator and may be finding strength on overwhelming liquidity rather than on the inflation or economic outlook. We also talk gold, crude oil, the outlook for 70's style inflation, ECB and EU sovereign debt, whether SEC moves are a threat for Virtu and the Robinhood IPO and much more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2RzJzzc   -

Today we look at a very quiet market, but with the general sense that investors are holding their breath for next week's FOMC meeting, where despite all of the inflation talk and signs of a white-hot US economy and massive demand for labor, the Fed rate expectations are pegged near multi-month lows. For crude oil, we look at factors completely outside of fundamentals that could be helping the oil market rally here as both Brent and WTI have posted new highs for the cycle. Much more on the call, including the much cloudier fiscal outlook in the US. On today's pod were Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3co8Gw6   -

Today we delve into the FDA approval for Biogen's controversial Alzheimer drug and key next steps for the company as this approval is not final. Elsewhere, we look at technical levels for Bitcoin now that it is breaking down again and trading below the lowest daily close since January. A look at the difficulty in getting price signals from the US treasury market, European car-maker valuations, FX stories and more on the call. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ck3Kbt   -

Today we look with a jaundiced eye on the market reaction Friday to what could arguably be dubbed "Goldilocks" nonfarm payrolls data, which came in sufficiently strong to suggest robust jobs growth, but slightly weaker than headline expectations, and thus less likely to bring forward a Fed tapering message, etc... Also on the call, a look into commodity performance, the enormous capital destruction in oil companies, the nervous wait for the June 16 FOMC meeting and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2RjDTt0   -

Today, a look at yesterday's weak US equity market session, which saw averages broadly lower, but with bubble stocks including Tesla in for especially heavy damage. Part of the damage may be due to concerns that strong US jobs data will bring forward Fed tightening, with today's official May jobs report and non-farm payrolls change data as the next important test. We also look into a sharp correction in metals, especially copper, the strong UDS reaction to the US data, copper stocks as the green transformation attempt will prove highly copper-intensive, and much more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3vHAza9    -

Today, a look at key upcoming data points out of the US over the next two days that could spark fresh inflationary concerns - or stagflationary ones, as we point out that it is important how we interpret payrolls growth, whether particularly strong (inflationary) or disappointing (possible stagflation indicator). Also, we look at EU fixed income, signs of a possible reach for quality in corporate credit, the latest Reddit army rampage in AMC stock, the green transformation and how it will drive inflation and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3c8CfBW   -

Today, we look at yesterday's interesting US equity session and whether bears might find it a tempting setup for taking a stab at selling, note a CBOE index showing a remarkable interesting in buying far out of the money options and what that could mean, run down the increasingly pivotal oil market after yesterday's OPEC+ meeting, talking energy stock valuation, earnings and European stocks, the latest FX developments and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2RZDnkj   -

Today, as the US and UK return from a long weekend, we ponder where this market is going to find additional "juice" in coming weeks and months as we may have passed the point of peak market support from central banks, with Fed taper talk beginning to creep into the picture ahead of the June 16 FOMC meeting. Also on the call, we look at dissonance in the bond market, key data releases today in Europe and the US, a new Saxo equity theme basket focused on global logistics, next steps for crude oil after Brent broke above the critical 70 dollars per barrel level in early trading today and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3p54XZy   -

Today we look at the low energy wind-down to the action in May as the US is out on a holiday, while noting that very low volatility is providing an attractive opportunity for hedging risk as we are entering a very critical time frame in coming months on the inflation question and to what degree it is transitory and whether the market is too complacent on the Fed's potential to shift if it isn't. A rundown of key commodities and equity theme baskets and the big move in the CNY and more on the call. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic