Saxo Market Call

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hZLDvq  -

Intraday volatility continues to be on the decline in broader equities, but in the equity corner of meme stocks, the 'Reddit army' has reloaded and come back for more aggressively pushing up AMC shares. The total traded value of AMX shares hit $18.7bn eclipsing Tesla at $16.6bn traded value and normally by far the most traded US stocks. In other words, the dangerous behaviour in quirky pockets of equities is back. Commodities are also back ignoring the signals of the Chinese government signalling that China is not as much in control of commodities as many thought potentially paving the way for even more aggressive moves to the upside. In today's podcast we also cover yesterday's US bond auctions, the price action in European peripheral bonds, next week's earnings and macro releases, and finally a quick take of Salesforce earnings. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and Althea Spinozzi on fixed income.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/2SuRrCf  -

Financial markets have calm down significantly this week with the news flow fizzling and investors in a wait-and-see mode on inflation. Germany saw a terrible bid-to-cover ratio yesterday suggesting the latest decline in the Bund yield could soon quickly reverse and potentially reignite momentum in European banks. Oil markets got a shock yesterday as activist investors seized at least two boardroom seats at ExxonMobil paving the way for a change on climate change and carbon emissions; at the same time a Dutch court ordered Shell to accelerate its plans to cut carbon emissions - are we heading for a new 70s-style energy shock? We also cover rally in the Chinese Yuan and its implications for inflation, and earnings from Nvidia yesterday suggesting the semiconductor troubles will stay with the industry for at least 2-3 quarters. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and Althea Spinozzi on fixed income.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3ugWvHC  -

Today the chief theme across markets is the Fed's ongoing tsunami of liquidity provisioning and the distortions it is creating across markets and possibly unreliable signals in treasury markets, as seen in a very strong 2-year Treasury auction yesterday. Gold is certainly enjoying the liquidity bonanza and low rates, while the kiwi spiked on more hawkish than expected guidance from the RBNZ. Also on the call, we ponder whether EM equities may be bottoming out, earnings coming up from Nvidia and others and next steps for crude oil. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3udTqYZ    -

Today we look at the very strong start to the week for US equities on fresh Fed rhetoric suggesting that they see any near term inflationary pressures as transitory. Elsewhere, we note the huge and rapidly growing size of the Fed reverse repo facility and ponder the implications. We also preview this week's key data on inflation and the focus in fixed income markets after US long treasury yields posted new two-week lows yesterday, the latest on commodities, earnings reports for the week ahead and the weak US dollar theme as well as the tension in the JPY outlook. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Episode slide deck: https://bit.ly/2SkAudQ   -

This Special Edition of the podcast features an interview of Wolf Richter of Wolfstreet.com, with Saxo's John Hardy hosting. The discussion centers on developments in the US economy and financial markets, especially the distortions created by the fiscal and monetary responses to the pandemic and the shifts that could lie ahead as the immediate stimulus effect fades. Inflation is also high on the agenda here as well in this engaging conversation with the great independent voice that Wolf brings in commenting on the economy and financial markets. 

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3fCIBtV    -

The European and US equity markets saw a chunky additional bounce yesterday, perhaps on further signs of calm in the crypto market, but also as commodities prices and inflation fears have eased over the last couple of sessions, together with sovereign yields. But the equity-treasury market correlation still spooks us and we discuss this and an overriding sense of narrative fragility, commodity perspectives for the week, gold, real yield themes and whether the JPY is unfairly unloved, the Aussie, earnings, a new Saxo Equity Theme basket and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3wphPwb 

Today we look at how the market reacted to the traumatic deleveraging event in the cryptocurrency space that was clearly made worse by forced liquidation of leveraged accounts, the technical levels in focus for Bitcoin after this latest sell-off, as well as how broader markets reacted to the event and the rather tepid language in the FOMC minutes pointing to an eventual discussion around tapering of Fed asset purchases. Cisco and other earnings, China moving against commodity price rises, the USD status and more on the call. Today's pod featured Ole Hansen on commodities, Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hzgRZR   -

Today we look at another weak session for global equities and not least, for the cryptocurrency space, were this latest bout of selling has reached deeper and wider than prior episodes, with thin excuses for the proximate cause of the selling. For Bitcoin, we identify key technical next steps, as we do for the US S&P 500, both in terms of the local pivot and whether momentum will suffer a further breakdown from these pivotal levels. Comments on Home Depot, the semi-conductor shortage, a possibly oversold USDCAD, the new highs in EURUSD and more on the call. Today's pod with Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3bvR8Oc   -

Today we look at the US dollar biting the dust as real US yields continue to decline and the long end of the US yield curve remains quiet despite fireworks elsewhere of late. Also, a look at interesting signals out of Europe, where optimism remains high, yields are pushing on cycle highs and Hungary surprised with an indication that it may hike rates as early as next month. Commodities markets are also in focus on Chilean election news and gold ripping to new highs on the US real yield story. Sterling, equity valuation perspectives, earnings, and the economic calendar ahead also on the call. Today's pod are Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ootp7G 

Today we look at the high degree of correlation between US equities and US treasuries and why this is cause for discomfort, note recent surges in inflation readings and inflation expectations as a sign of an inflationary cycle igniting. We also discuss weakness, however, in major commodities since mid-last week, save for gold, where the market is attempting a breakout today. Elsewhere, we look at key earnings and macro numbers for the week ahead. On today's pod are Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic