Saxo Market Call

This Special Edition podcast is a conversation with Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen, who discusses the recent rise in inflation, the difficulty in defining it and measuring it and the implications of a conflux of policy choices that will continue to drive an inflation cycle unlike anything we have seen in decades. Also, we look at where central banks risk making policy mistakes in not realizing we are in a new paradigm. Hosting the pod is John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3hoKYmO   -

Today Head of Quant and Equity Strategy Peter Garnry offers perspective on what has happened over the last few months with stocks linked to the "green transformation" of our economy, which have collapsed relative to the broader market and relative to black energy companies since their spectacular run-up in recent years, particularly from the depths of the Covid outbreak panic. We also engage in a discussion on whether this marks the beginning of a comeback for value-style investing after decades of wandering in the desert for value investors and whether there are parallels with this cycle to the 1999-2002 market cycle for the broader market. Hosting the pod is John J. Hardy.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3bkFndf   -

Today we assess the bounce in the most speculative corners of the market starting around the US equity open yesterday, while the broader market failed to bounce as much and Asian suffered a bit of trauma overnight, centered on Taiwanese stocks and specifically TSMC. Elsewhere, a run-down of developments in fixed income as EU yields are pushing on the key levels at cycle highs even without notable pressure from the US, look at key event risks today for US treasuries and broader markets, rundown crypto, oil and carbon emissions markets and much more in this action packed pod with Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3tDaVkU   -

Today we break down an ugly day on Wall Street yesterday, one that drives a bit more concern than usual as we see signs of significant cross-market correlations, with action in commodity markets suddenly looking more wobbly. Too early to tell, but we ratchet the level of concern considerably higher on the risk of an acceleration of volatility. We also look at US treasuries failing to provide any offsetting safe haven effect ahead of important auctions, take a peek at upcoming earnings and the macro calendar and more. On today's pod were Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3hioqnE   -

Today we look at the Friday NFP payrolls change shocker and to what degree it deserved the knee-jerk reaction it got, noting that it is very important to focus on the interesting change to the US yield curve in the wake of the data release. Elsewhere, we look at whether steel stocks are set to take over e-commerce stocks from the pandemic lows as industrial metals prices roar. USD, sterling and JPY thoughts and earnings and macro preview for the week also on the call. Today with Peter Garnry on equities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/33kVDXB   -

Today we look at still very notable divergences in the US equity market, as bubble stocks and other richly valued corners of the market continue to stumble even as the broader market is looking back at the record high. Also, a discussion on what bond market, Fed expectations and breakevens vs. nominal rates are telling us, a zoom-in on big German equity names, a look at copper near record highs, while gold finally broke higher on real yields declining, a preview of today's US jobs report and much more. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3fcHukP   -

While nominal yields are languishing and dropping only slightly, real yields in the US have moved aggressively lower as commodity prices rise and forward inflation fears rage. We look at the implications, especially gold and look at record low yield spreads for junk corporates versus investment grade, sovereign yields in the EU and UK, discuss expectations for the BoE today and implications for sterling, the Scottish parliamentary elections, grains, and more. Today with Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck: https://bit.ly/3eRPMyd   -

Today we look at yesterday's ugly session in the US equity market, already in motion before it was badly aggravated by oddly direct comments on the possible need to raise interest rates from US Treasury Secretary Yellen. Her later clarifications helped reverse some of the damage, but the Nasdaq 100 is limping. Elsewhere, we look at soaring commodities prices, including perspective on copper, incoming earnings reports, disappointing precious metals (once again) and more. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3eOAo5O   -

The Reserve Bank of Australia teased a likely removal of policy accommodation at its July meeting overnight, which would make it the second bank after the Bank of Canada to remove monetary policy accommodation. And the market is pricing in a similar tendency from the Bank of England ahead of Thursday's meeting. We look at this, together with an interesting reversal lower in treasury yields after the US ISM Manufacturing release yesterday, talk a novel way to hedge for equity volatility, talk precious metals and a new way to invest in uranium and much more. Today with Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Today's slide deck:  https://bit.ly/3gYj94G   -

Today we look at the ugly session on Friday for equities and strong session for the US dollar and ponder whether this was a reflection of end-of-month rebalancing after a strong month for equities and very weak month for the US dollar or something more ominous. Certainly momentum in equities is looking pivotal if recent bearish divergence signs are confirmed. Also, the latest on the blistering run in grain prices and remarkable backwardation in soft markets, why gold is still stuck in a rut and key earnings reports and macro events for the week ahead. On today's call were Ole Hansen on commodities, and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic