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Markets are calm ahead of today's US August Nonfarm Payrolls report which is expected to show continuous job gains in the US economy. In today's podcast we discuss the positive week in global equities led by technology stocks, potential turnaround in the US fiscal impulse, galloping prices on rice and orange juice, and a stronger Chinese yuan as recent policy moves have strengthened the currency. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

 

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3q2zG   -

Momentum in equities is extending as 'peak rates' narrative gets stronger amid weakening macro data suggesting that tighter monetary policies are beginning to have an impact on the economy. We expect the ECB to go into a hawkish pause mode on policy rates and this thinking has got the market to bid up EURUSD in recent trading days. Momentum in gold is also responding well in recent weeks to the 'peak narrative' and elsewhere in commodities cocoa futures are approaching their highest price since early 2011. We also touch on earnings from Salesforce and UBS. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

 

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3L3UV7k   -

Bad news was good news yesterday as significantly weaker than estimated US August consumer confidence and July JOLTS jobs opening pushed the US 10-year yield lower lifting equities, and especially the cyclical sectors such as semiconductors and carmakers. In currencies, the AUD is seeing the strongest bid and in commodity markets crude oil is still supported by tight markets. Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

 

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3QYEMnq   -

Risk-on sentiment continues this morning with a strong Chinese equity session seeing Hang Seng futures rallying 2%. We discuss the new positive sentiment on Chinese equities, but also the ongoing risks to the Chinese economy. We also talk about the recent headwinds for the USD and positioning in industrials metals. Finally, we cover the 3M lawsuit settlement over defective earplugs to the US military and the upcoming earnings today from HP and NIO. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

 

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Link to slide deck: https://shorturl.at/hjv27   -

Jackson Hole delivers nothing that changes the outlook leading to muted reactions across various markets except for a collapse in implied equity volatility (VIX). Chinese regulators have lowered trading costs today causing a rally in Chinese equities with Hang Seng futures up 1% after being up as much as 3.2% as the market has its eyes on the Chinese shadow banking system. In currencies speculative short positions on the USD are being reduced and in commodities we still observe broad-based selling due to worries over China. We also discuss the rising refinery margins on gasoline and diesel impacting costs of transportation. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities and Ole S. Hansen on commodities.

 

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P9KAsU   -

Today we look at the market turning tail badly yesterday and posting a bearish reversal after a gap opening higher. The action was sympathetic with the massive deflation in NVDA options premium as the gap higher in that company's stock on the company's results was entirely erased during yesterday's session. Elsewhere, we look at the USD resurgent ahead of a speech from Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole, with ECB President Lagarde also set to peak. In fixed income, we note the continued elevation at the short end of the US treasury yield curve suggesting the market has priced in a higher-for-longer policy stance from the Fed. We note as well that today is the first day for major internet companies to face the EU's new Digital Services Act, with possibly huge implications. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3ORhX22   -

Today we look at Nvidia's results smashing everything in sight on results and guidance and offer some thoughts on what we missed in waxing so skeptical in yesterday's podcast, while still posing a few questions on whether its trajectory is sustainable. We also note the very weak Eurozone and UK PMI data, which helped engineer a steep slide in global yields and whipsawed currency markets. In commodities, the focus is on the resurgence in silver and the collapse in gas prices and surge in uranium prices. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3YNlKCd   -

Today we look at the wild swings in Nvidia shares ahead of that important company's earnings report after the close today, with much at stake as the company has a very high bar to clear in terms of results and guidance, given the share price. We take a look at some of the largest likely buyers of Nvidia and why their capital expenditures have not expanded in line with the expected surge in Nvidia revenues. Elsewhere, we continue to discuss what the Fed will hint at in this Friday's Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Powell. In commodities, we focus on copper and oil. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/45C8m63   -

Today we look at the strong resurgence in US equities yesterday, particularly in the most popular speculative names like Tesla and Nvidia, which jumped over 8% yesterday, trading close to the cycle highs just ahead of its earnings report after the close tomorrow. The strong resurgence unfolded despite US yields rising sharply, with the 10- and 30-year yields posting new 15-year and 12-year highs, respectively. We look at key upcoming Treasury auctions and what the Fed's Jackson Hole conference on Friday and into the weekend may be set to deliver in terms of policy hints. This and more in today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic

Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3P5e62S

Today, we look at the start to a new week as China disappoints once again on soft-pedaling its approach to stimulus, weighing on risk sentiment in Asia. We also wrap up last week's rather dire action in the US and other equity markets as rising yields continue to pressure valuations. The week ahead features the biggest AI name of them all as Nvidia reports on Wednesday after the market close. On the macro data front we'll have a look at preliminary August PMI's incoming on Wednesday, while the bigger focus rolls into view with the Fed's Jackson Hole symposium up on Friday and into the weekend.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic