Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3OwkuA1   -

Today we discuss the FOMC meeting, which brought the expected data dependency and a complete lack of new guidance, which has allowed the US dollar to continue lower as the VIX pushes back at the cycle lows. Meta reported strong results after the close, helping to take US S&P 500 futures to new highs for the cycle. We look forward to the ECB meeting today and wonder whether Lagarde and company have already pre-empted any ability to surprise with the recent shift to less hawkish rhetoric. The Bank of Japan, meanwhile, can only surprise the market as we are all quite uncertain on their course of action from here. In upcoming earnings, we spotlight Intel and note important inflation data up tomorrow on the macro calendar. Today's pod is hosted by John J. Hardy.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44C0Yrk   -

Today features Saxo CIO Steen Jakobsen as we discuss the break higher in commodities that will likely eventually challenge the assumption of ongoing disinflation. We also ponder what today's FOMC meeting will bring relative to market expectations, and more importantly what the Fed is trying to accomplish as this cycle plays out into an eventual recession. We also look at the woes Europe faces here and the impossible task for the ECB. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3rDYt9n   -

Today we look at incoming data and how it will impact the yield curve, suspecting that weak data and the key Friday US PCE inflation release will see the market marking the forward Fed expectations lower, seeing this week's Fed rate hike as the last for the cycle, even if tomorrow's FOMC meeting will likely see the Fed maintaining optionality for the possibility of another hike. The ECB is certainly set for a more dovish turn, and we eye EURJPY downside risks in coming months. In earnings, we note the incoming semi-annual report from LVMH today and Google and Microsoft after the US close. This and more on today's pod, which features Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3DtRVwN   -

Today we wrap up last week's action and note that the market could be in for some consolidation after the recent blistering run higher, with key themes in focus, especially AI after NVDA posted an ugly week and Microsoft backed out all of its share gains from the Copilot AI story last week. It reports tomorrow, as does the luxury giant LVMH after luxury stocks posted an ugly week. Elsewhere, Germany's horrific initial July Manufacturing PMI print of 38.8 begs the question on why the ECB is even hiking this week. We can likely expect even more dovish shift from Lagarde and company as growth woes dominate the focus. A EURUSD reversal risk in in play this week if 1.1000 fails. This and more on today's pod, hosted by John J. Hardy.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44WWADd   -

Today we look at the ugly break lower in the US equity market after the Tesla and Netflix earnings spoiled the party, with a snappy move higher in treasury yields possibly adding to the negative tilt in sentiment.  We look at the technical implications of yesterday's break in the rally and note that the status of the US dollar bear market is suddenly in play as well after yesterday's punchy rally and the spike in yields. All of this with a critical week ahead as the FOMC, ECB and Bank of Japan lined up for next week. Today's pod features Kim Cramer Larsson on technical analysis, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44VbCcD   -

US equities tested new highs yesterday but closed mixed, with Tesla and especially Netflix earnings after the close chilling risk sentiment, with focus on Netflix's weak guidance and concerns for Tesla centered on the margin story as Musk forecast further price cuts on Tesla's cars, with fewer details than hoped on the Cybertruck. Elsewhere, we have a look at the strong euro versus weak JPY and CNH and wonder whether the ECB's recent dovish turn is prompted from the currency angle. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44NGKKU   -

US equities ripped to new highs for the cycle as financials got a boost from more banks and financial services companies reporting, led by a huge advance in Charles Schwab on a strong earnings beat and guidance. But Microsoft stole the limelight, adding $150 billion in market cap in announcing the pricing for its new AI tools. Elsewhere, sterling was walloped by a softer than expected CPI report - does this spell the end of sterling's strong performance after a remarkable first half of the year? Today's pod features a run-through of the technical analysis outlook for key stocks, indices and gold with our technical analyst Kim Cramer Larsson. Hosted by John J. Hardy.  

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3XYOzeo   -

US equities closed at new cycle highs yesterday as financials recovered sharply after the prior day's sell-off. The first two major US regional banks are set to report earnings today. Elsewhere, commodities prices suffered a drawdown as China-linked sentiment remains soft. In the earnings overview, we wonder whether Tesla's earnings report could inject some volatility into the very complacent backdrop, as the calm ironically increases market fragility and risk to any news that doesn't fit with the narrative. This and much more in today's pod, which is hosted by John J. Hardy. 

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/3pZ7bhT    -

The equity market was unable to hold an extension of the steep rally on Friday, with financials leading the intrasession selling. Strong results from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo saw those shares gapping strongly higher on the open, but generally selling off thereafter. In FX, the USD backed up after a strong US University of Michigan sentiment report for July that boosted yields, but last week on balance saw a firm break lower in the USD's fortunes. In commodities, we focus on crude oil and the divergent and volatile grains markets. We also look at the week ahead in earning and macro risks and more. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

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Link to slide deck: https://bit.ly/44n5rhj   -

The equity market rallied continued apace yesterday, encouraged by a drop in treasury yields all along the curve and benign US PPI data. Earnings season kicks off in earnest today and gathers pace next week - can companies deliver after the aggressive expansion of multiples over the last three months? In FX, we note that in trade-weighted terms, the Euro is at all time high (nominal effective terms according to ECB measure). We also note the rising anticipation that the Bank of Japan may have to tweak policy at its meeting in two weeks. Commodities have also been rocked by developments, where today we focus on crude oil, copper and silver. Today's pod features Ole Hansen on commodities with John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.

Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and SaxoStrats Market Strategy Team here.

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Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic