The Debate

Are diplomatic talks to end the Iran conflict actually happening? Donald Trump has hinted at "major" progress, but the White House downplayed this. Iran says no, Qatar says they're not involved, while there's increasing speculation that Pakistan could be the host of talks later this week. Yet all of this comes as Israel says it plans to push into Lebanon as far as the Litani River against Hezbollah and will use a Gaza-style approach, which resulted in a humanitarian catastrophe. So where are we at? Are we witnessing a high-stakes poker game where someone has to blink first?

Produced by Annette Young, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Another deadline day, another ultimatum, another surprise turn from the US president. The same Donald Trump who may or may not send ground troops to try to secure the Strait of Hormuz is now claiming that his administration is talking with the Iranians, thus holding off on hitting critical infrastructure. Trump's messaging since the start of this war has been keeping friends and foes alike guessing. That's in stark contrast to his Israeli allies, who seem to be embracing a fight many of its leaders have been dreaming of for decades. 

Israel, too, has a larger-than-life populist leader who's changed the course of his country's history. Their interests overlap, but remain distinct. A case in point is Israel's rush to prepare for an eventual ground operation in Lebanon. So who's calling the shots? Trump or Benjamin Netanyahu? Whose idea was this war?

And who takes the blame once the guns go silent on a campaign that's failed to rally traditional allies, punished civilians by laying waste to critical infrastructure and triggered a worldwide energy crisis?

What prospects lie ahead for Trump, his MAGA movement, Netanyahu and the state of Israel?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

The Middle East War is now in its 20th day, with a perceived split in US and Israeli strategy emerging. Donald Trump says Israel bombed Iran's gas field "without his knowledge". Then Trump, perhaps playing catch-up, threatened to "blow up" Iran's South Pars gas field if Iran strikes Qatar; a move that experts say would literally explode the region. 

There's also another issue simmering away: what to do with Iran's enriched uranium? Experts say this is the next big decision for Trump. Seizing Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium could well require the "largest special forces operation in history".

When US and Israeli jets bombed Iran's nuclear facilities last June, the regime was thought to have over 400 kg of 60 percent6enriched uranium. This is near weapons grade. Weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90 percent. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, half of Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium is stored underground at Isfahan. US intelligence believes there's a "very narrow access point" through which this material could be retrieved.

We discuss this next possible phase in the war, and what it could mean going forward.

Produced by Mark Owen, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

On Day 19 of the war in the Middle East, there have been extensive air strikes, drone attacks and missiles launched. Fallout is spreading far beyond the so-called theatre of war. What's the plan in Iran? Donald Trump finds himself increasingly between a rock and a hard place. But at least he can count on his loyal MAGA followers. Or can he?

The US Congress is calling for Joe Kent to appear, in the wake of his decision to resign as head of national counterterrorism over Iran. Kent, an erstwhile Trump and MAGA loyalist and former special forces officer, said "in all conscience I cannot back the Iran war". This is another example of Trump's support crumbling over the war.

Kent also said the US went into battle under the influence of "Israel and its powerful American lobby". Is Trump's political universe starting to implode over his Iran strategy, or lack thereof? And what does this mean for the Middle East going forward? 

Produced by Mark Owen, Rebecca Gnignati, Juliette Laffont, Ilayda Habip, Charles Wente.

Ali Larijani was the head of Iran's Security Council and a key voice in the ear of the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Gholamreza Soleimani was the head of the Basij militia. Both were pillars of Iran's security apparatus. If they have indeed been taken out, the question is who replaces them, and will they take Iran down an even more hardline path?

The death of Iran's key figure Ali Larijani raises more questions than answers.

First, Israel says it has killed him in an air strike, but Tehran has yet to confirm or deny.

While Israel and the United States rejoice and call on the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow what is left of their Islamic leadership, the reality on the ground is less certain. The systematic killing of the leaders of Iran since February 28 has created a vacuum in Tehran.

The fear among analysts is that the space will be filled by regime insiders who will be hardened and more radical.

Larijani was the lead negotiator at the now aborted talks to find a peaceful way forward.

Following the death of the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – to whom he was a close adviser, some say the de facto leader – some in Washington saw Larijani as a good fit for successor; a man they could perhaps do business with.

Who comes next? What could this mean for the war? And how might it affect the other groups in the region that take their lead from Iran's leadership? 

It's Day 17 of the war in the Middle East and as the missiles and drones keep falling, the US president has done a U-turn on needing help from his friends and allies. Donald Trump is calling now for a coalition to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. The US strikes on Iran's Kharg Island on Friday sent a message to Tehran, but did not take away the potential threat to shipping in and out of the Persian Gulf.

For Trump, this call to stand together is something of a turn-around. On March 7, he told US network CBS it was a bit late of the United Kingdom and others to send ships. The US president didn't need British help to win his war. 

Now, Trump is calling on NATO allies to join him in the war he started on February 28 without consulting them. There's a common interest in keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. But would it even be at risk had Trump not started this whole crisis?

Produced by Rebecca Gnignati, Elisa Amiri, Ilayda Habip.

Warfare is always evolving, sometimes slowly: Napoleon’s armies travelled little differently from those of Julius Caesar. At other times, change comes faster than commanders can process, as the futile carnage of the First World War showed. The pace of change on the battlefield today? Fast – very fast.

Introducing the first war brought to you by artificial intelligence. In the first ten days of a campaign that may well have been prepared in a hurry, the US and Israel pinpointed and targeted as many Iranian sites in the first four days as the anti-ISIS coalition did in the first six months of its campaign in Iraq and Syria.

How good are AI-informed kill orders? Are computers already making the call?

The New York Times reports that it was probably humans who mistakenly decided to hit a girls’ school, killing 175. Even if outdated intelligence may be to blame, we’ll ask our panel what role AI might have played.

And what responsibility do tech companies bear when their tools lead to war crimes and mass surveillance? In the battle between Anthropic and the US government over the proper use of its software, who gets the final say: the company, or the government? Especially when the power of this technology is something we do not yet fully grasp.

 

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip.

One war can fuel another. After the United States and Israel launched an operation that began, on day one, with the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Donald Trump expressed surprise at Tehran’s decision to draw in Gulf oil producers and disrupt global supplies.

From the ensuing energy crisis there are plenty of losers – and one big winner: Russia. Washington is now suggesting it may ease sanctions on Russian oil. The Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine had been feeling the pinch, but now – even at a discount – it is finding buyers, just as the Trump administration again pushes for concessions from Kyiv.

We’ll ask how Volodymyr Zelensky’s offer of drone technology to Gulf states measures up against Vladimir Putin’s offer to keep crude flowing; how cash-strapped Europeans will react; and, more broadly, at what point a war of the US and Israel’s choosing spreads so far and wide that it becomes a world war. With alliances such as NATO no longer a given, how should the world deal with the danger?

Produced by François Picard, Rebecca Gnignati, Daniel Whittington, Ilayda Habip.

Why this war of Donald Trump’s choosing? As death and destruction widen in Iran and across the region, and as oil and gas markets take fright, the US president’s reasons for launching what his administration calls Operation Epic Fury continue to shift, as do the stated scale and duration.

What remains consistent is the White House’s messaging, cranked out over social media by Gen-Z handlers who have taken Silicon Valley’s “move fast and break things” mantra and turned it into memes – some even borrowing actual video-game footage. Is it working? Do the fireballs that kill real human beings in the Middle East inspire admiration and awe among voters in the United States?

The fog of war is inherently performative: show that you are mighty and demonise the enemy. It is also meant to serve as a “rally ’round the flag” moment for leaders. Well, almost always. Is this war different? And how is it going for US and Israeli leaders who stand shoulder to shoulder while talking at cross purposes about its length and objectives?

Second week of a war seen more than ever as a massive gamble by the US and Israel: strikes on oil installations in Tehran prompting retaliation across the Gulf. Also blown away are claims that disruptions to global energy security would be only a passing blip.

As the price of crude shoots past 100 dollars a barrel, Tehran signals it’s staying the course, with Mojtaba Khamenei – the hardline son of the assassinated Supreme Leader – chosen to take the reins of an under-siege Islamic Republic that still has the means to make its neighbours pay a price for Trump and Netanyahu’s war.

Take Lebanon, where rocket attacks by Iran proxy Hezbollah have drawn a deluge of fire, a ground incursion by Israel, and the displacement of nearly 700,000 people. We’ll talk about the Lebanese president who wants direct talks with Israel and weigh ten days of destruction of lives and livelihoods.

As for the price at the pump, Europe will arguably feel the effects more sharply than a US that is farther away and largely energy self-sufficient. Good luck glossing that over when France hosts the next G7 summit in June.