In 2026, about 1.15 million Canadians hit renewal, but the bigger danger is many will be TRAPPED because their home value dropped and their loan to value may be above 80%, meaning they cannot switch lenders even with perfect payment history. Banks track your equity, so if you are trapped, your negotiating power disappears and refinancing or HELOC plans can get blocked or reduced. The fix is to check your current value and loan to value early, talk to a broker 6 months ahead, and consider options like alternative lenders, product changes, or extending amortization to manage payment shock.

Podcast with Ron Butler from the Angry Mortgage Podcast talks about how money is flowing out of Canada and soon Canadians might follow and leave the country.

The Bank of Canada has paused rates at 2.25%, signaling the rate cutting cycle is over and that lower pre-pandemic rates are not coming back. With 1.2 million Canadians renewing in 2026, many homeowners face payment increases of around $718 per month if they do not plan ahead. This video breaks down how to build a clear renewal strategy around today’s rate reality so you can reduce payment shock and make a more informed mortgage decision.

The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25%, but the real story is the massive payment shock coming for Canadians renewing mortgages from the 2020–2022 period. Despite nine rate cuts, households are under increasing financial strain, with many facing payment jumps of $700 to over $1,000 per month and even returning financed vehicles to stay afloat. Housing prices still aren’t responding to lower rates because affordability has collapsed, consumer confidence is weak, and the broader economy is being propped up by part-time jobs and government spending.

Canada’s latest jobs report showed a shock drop in unemployment and a surge in job creation, which sent the bond market into panic and pushed fixed mortgage rates sharply higher. Traders are now pricing in the possibility of rate hikes, not cuts, because the data suggests the economy may be stronger than expected on the surface. But most of the job gains came from part-time youth positions, raising serious questions about whether the market is misreading the strength of the economy and what this means for buyers, renewals, and anyone choosing between fixed or variable right now.

CMHC-insured mortgages jumped 43 percent in Q3, showing more Canadians are relying on insurance because saving twenty percent down has become nearly impossible. Insurance can actually be a smart tool with lower rates and faster entry into the market, but the bigger issue is the government prioritizing rentals over home ownership while arrears quietly rise. Alex breaks down how this shift affects buyers and why using insurance and amortization strategically is now essential.

1.2 million Canadians are renewing mortgages in 2026, most coming off sub-2% rates and facing $500–$600 monthly payment jumps. Fixed gives certainty but higher payments and big penalties, while variable could save money if rates fall but risks increases. The wrong choice can cost or save around $18,000. Alex breaks down the scenarios and shows how to choose based on your budget, savings, risk tolerance, and whether you might move or refinance.

Canadians have pushed HELOC borrowing to about $179 billion, rising at the fastest pace in 13 years while home prices remain flat or cooling. Homeowners are using their equity to cover rising living costs, pre-construction shortfalls, high interest debt, and cash flow gaps on investment properties, which signals mounting financial stress. HELOCs can be powerful when used for emergencies or strategic investing, but regulators warn that poor use is increasing default risk and exposing how stretched many households are.

Canadian home prices rose 0.2% in October: the first increase after eight months of declines, signaling a possible slowdown in the market’s freefall, though not a rebound. Regional markets are moving in opposite directions, with Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and the Prairies staying hot while Toronto and Vancouver remain extremely weak with rising inventory and frozen buyer psychology. Despite improved affordability from lower rates, price softness, and rising incomes, major wildcards like tariffs, population stagnation, and upcoming mortgage renewals could quickly reverse any stabilization.

Last month, the mortgage industry panicked when OSFI announced new rules that seemed to ban using personal income to qualify for investment property mortgages, but the interpretation was completely wrong. The actual change is about how banks classify risk and capital requirements for investor mortgages, not underwriting rules, meaning you can still use your income to qualify. What most people missed is that OSFI delayed implementing these rules for three years since 2022, which allowed banks to continue writing investor mortgages with minimal restrictions during a critical market period. When the new capital requirements finally kick in during Q2 2026, investor mortgages will likely cost more and become harder to qualify for, while first-time homebuyers may actually benefit from better terms.

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