The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Despite failures in his government's response to Covid-19, the majority of Victorians say Dan Andrews has handled the crisis well.
The Australian's Newspoll shows 62 per cent of Victorian voters agree the Premier has handled the health crisis well despite failures in hotel quarantine causing much of the state's Covid-19 cases.
Separately, 61 per cent of voters around Australia, including 57 per cent of Coalition voters, said the restrictions, which have locked Victorians at home, were appropriate.
But ex-premier Jeff Kennett, who has openly criticised Andrews' handling of the crisis, said he was not surprised by the Newspoll results.
"When you have people in situations of stress they always look to their leaders to actually be able to guide them to a safe place," he told the Today show on Tuesday morning.
"We are being guided because the Government has failed, and I've always said that the aftermath of the coronavirus is going to be a lot more serious than, in fact, the coronavirus itself.
"We are going to have literally years of trying to recover here in Victoria. Businesses are closing all over the place. Our unemployment levels are rising. When we get to the next election it won't be the coronavirus that the Premier has got to deal with, if he is still in office. It will actually be a shrinking economy … Opinion polls fluctuate, when you are up there is only one way to go."
It comes after the Opposition last week pushed a vote of no confidence regarding the Premier's leadership through Parliament.
Opposition leader Michael O'Brien on Monday published updated figures on his social media, where reportedly 40,000 Victorians had registered their vote of no confidence in the Premier.
Andrews hinted at a possible easing of restrictions on Sunday, saying "significant steps" could be taken.
"We are poised to take some significant steps, albeit they are safe and steady steps on Sunday," he said on Monday.
"We are in that 30-50 band and it looks like we are going to stay there. That is really very, very important.
"Let me be clear – if circumstances change, if we find ourselves ahead of schedule, not for one day but in a manifest sense, common sense always guides us," he said. "We will look at what sits behind the numbers and then we will have to make a judgment."

Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi has announced a reprieve for 11,000 foreigners with expiring working holiday visas, who will be able to stay and work in horticulture and wine growing jobs.
A Supplementary Seasonal Employment (SSE) visa will be automatically given to those with working holiday visas that expire between November 1, 2020, and March 31, 2021.
And Faafoi has announced that the border will be opened for hundreds to specialist workers including veterinarians, deep-sea fishing crew, and agricultural and horticultural mobile plant operators.
The Government announcement comes as the National Party released its plan to allow more essential foreign workers into New Zealand without compromising safety.
Faafoi said the Government had established border exceptions for entry for a limited number of workers: 30 veterinarians, 570 deep-sea fishing crew, and 210 agricultural and horticultural mobile plant operators.
The exceptions will be time-limited, he said, and industry representatives will identify which workers will be eligible.
"There are not enough New Zealanders to fill current needs for livestock veterinarians, especially in isolated areas. Training to be a vet takes years so these vacancies cannot be filled quickly," Faafoi said.
Mobile plant operators worked with highly specialised machinery, he said.
"Their skills are required urgently to avoid the loss of crop and animal feed that will soon be ready for harvest."
And shortages in deep-sea fishing workers could not be filled by Kiwis in the short-term, Faafoi said.
"In exchange for the border exception, the fishing industry has committed to removing barriers to employing New Zealanders, including reviewing pay structures and business models, and investing significantly in training and education."
He said horticulture and wine-growing employers will be able to take on SSE workers for roles in regions approved by the Ministry of Social Development.
SSE workers could also work for accredited SSE employers or for a Recognised Seasonal Employer (RSE) which has unfilled RSE spaces.
Other work visa holders can apply for an SSE visa if they have a job offer from one of these employers or if the job is on the Ministry of Social Development list.
In addition, all RSE workers stranded in New Zealand who have been granted a more flexible visa to work part-time and do non-RSE work will be able to "re-enter" the RSE scheme and work for an RSE employer with 30 hours per week average pay guaranteed.
Faafoi said the changes would help fill roles that cannot be filled by New Zealanders in the short term, while the industry works on other solutions.
"Without these visa changes, there will not be enough people in the right locations to ensure fruit and produce is picked in time."
The changes are for the 2020/21 season only.
"While only a small number of migrants can arrive in New Zealand, the Government is enabling the remaining migrant workforce to stay on. This will go a long way to support the labour needs of the horticulture and viticulture industries.
"RSE workers offshore will be able to return and work in New Zealand when it is safe to do so."
This morning the National Party said it wanted to open up the borders to let in more foreign workers and international students.
And National wants the private sector to be allowed to accommodate overseas arrivals, which would shoulder some of the costs while boosting capacity.
All private facilities would have to meet standards of safety, security, reporting, transporting, training and testing, as well as associated costs.
National's proposed Te Korowai Whakamaru/NZ Border Protection Agency would set the standards, and any contractors working at private MIQ facilities would have to pass a "rigorous" screening process.

The two women vying for the nation’s top job at next month’s general election faced off in a sometime fiery televised leaders debate. 
Labour Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and National Party leader Judith Collins traded blows over the country’s Covid-19 response. 
They also locked horns on pressing issues like New Zealand’s ballooning debt, housing, health, poverty and infrastructure, including the need for a second Auckland Habour crossing.
Stuart Nash told Mike Hosking he thought Judith Collins was shouty and yappy, and struggled to show any emotion.
"She was rolling her eyes, which wasn't a good look, and at times she looked like a petulant child.
"Jacinda was very Prime Ministerial, she had all the facts and details."
Mark Mitchell told Mike Hosking that he believes Judith Collins won the debate hands down.
"She was authentic and performed strongly. Judith was very clear and precise, and even showed a bit of emotion as well."
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Votes in hand, Senate Republicans are charging ahead with plans to confirm President Donald Trump’s pick to fill the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat before the Nov. 3 election, launching a divisive fight over Democratic objections before a nominee is even announced.
Trump said Tuesday he will name his choice Saturday, confident of support. Democrats say it's too close to the election, and the winner of the presidency should name the new justice. But under GOP planning, the Senate could vote Oct. 29.
“I guess we have all the votes we’re going to need,” Trump told WJBX FOX 2 in Detroit. “I think it’s going to happen.”
Republicans believe the court fight will energize voters for Trump, boosting the party and potentially deflating Democrats who cannot stop the lifetime appointment for a conservative justice . The Senate is controlled by Republicans, 53-47, with a simple majority needed for confirmation. The one remaining possible Republican holdout, Mitt Romney of Utah, said Tuesday he supports taking a vote.
Still, with early presidential voting already underway in several states, all sides are girding for a wrenching Senate battle over health care, abortion access and other big cases before the court and sure to further split the torn nation.
It is one of the quickest confirmation efforts in recent times. No court nominee in U.S. history has been considered so close to a presidential election. And it all comes as the nation is marking the grave milestone of 200,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic.
During a private lunch meeting Tuesday at Senate GOP campaign headquarters, several Republican senators spoke up in favor of voting before the election. None advocated a delay.
Elsewhere, as tributes poured in for Ginsburg with vigils and flowers at the court’s steps, Democrats led by presidential nominee Joe Biden vowed a tough fight. The Senate Democratic leader, Chuck Schumer, said that “we should honor her dying wish,” which was that her seat not be filled until the man who wins the presidential election is installed, in January.
But that seemed no longer an option. So far, two Republicans have said they oppose taking up a nomination at this time, but no others are in sight. Under Senate rules, Vice President Mike Pence could break a tie vote.
While not all Republican senators have said they will support the eventual pick, few appear willing to stand in the way of a top party priority.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell made no scheduling announcements. But hearings could start as soon as Oct. 12 by the Senate Judiciary Committee, with a vote in the full Senate by Oct. 29, according to a GOP aide granted anonymity to discuss deliberations. McConnell said more information would be coming once Trump announces his choice.
After Trump met with conservative Judge Amy Coney Barrett at the White House on Monday he told reporters he would interview other candidates and might meet with Judge Barbara Lagoa when he travels to Florida later this week. Conversations in the White House and McConnell’s office have been increasingly focused on Barrett and Lagoa, according to a person granted anonymity to discuss the private deliberations.
Barrett, 48, a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 7th Circuit, has long been favored by conservatives. Those familiar with the process said interest inside the White House seemed to be waning for Lagoa amid concerns she did not have a proven record as a conservative jurist. Lagoa has been pushed by Florida's governor, and aides tout her political advantages of being Hispanic and hailing from the key political battleground state.
Democrats point to hypocrisy in Republicans trying to rush through a pick so close to the election after McConnell led the GOP in refusing to vote on a nominee of President Barack Obama in February 2016, long before that year’s election.
Romney, the GOP's 2012 presidential...

All foreign aircrews will have to complete their layovers in New Zealand in managed isolation as part of a new policy to keep the borders tight.
"That's a new development," director general of health Ashley Bloomfield told the Herald this morning.
"There's been a lot of work with the airline industry to see what we could do to further strengthen that safety at the border, especially because there are accelerating numbers of cases in many of the countries that people are flying in from.
"The crews coming in from overseas-based airlines will now be housed in managed isolation facilities before they fly out again."



Aircrew are exempt from the regular testing of border-facing workers that was mandated in a Public Health Response order earlier this month.
Bloomfield has repeatedly responded to concerns about this exemption by saying that work with airlines was ongoing to ensure a satisfactory safety regime would be set up.
He said New Zealand-based aircrew did not have to go to a managed isolation or quarantine (MIQ) facility.
"They still do a couple of days self-isolation and require a negative test before the go out and about."
Board of Airlines Representatives of NZ executive director Justin Tighe-Umbers said the new requirements would likely be implemented before the end of the month.
"Airlines recognise the need to meet the measures that will keep New Zealand and the border safe.
"They're comfortable to meet the requirements, and indeed a number of them are already staying in some of those facilities anyway."
Only 31 per cent of MIQ cases genomically sequenced
All positive cases will now be genomically sequenced to provide the best clues about the source of an outbreak and how cases are linked, Bloomfield said.
There is still no certainty about how the current Auckland cluster started, and efforts to find the source have been hindered by the small proportion of MIQ cases that were genomically sequenced.
Only about 20 per cent of the 143 MIQ cases had been sequenced on August 11, when the outbreak was first detected.
Currently 49 out of 158 MIQ cases - 31 per cent - have been sequenced, though the rate is much higher for all 1464 confirmed cases in New Zealand.
"Of all the samples since the start of the pandemic in New Zealand, they [ESR] have done the whole genome sequencing on over 50 per cent of cases, which is actually one of the highest in the world," Bloomfield said.
"Our plan now is that we do whole genome sequencing on every positive test result that we get."
Asked why the rate for MIQ cases was so low, Bloomfield said: "Because it wasn't routinely being done."
In recent weeks, he said ESR had been recovering and sampling as many MIQ cases as possible, focusing on cases that arrived from the UK - where the Covid-19 strain of the Auckland cluster is most commonly found.
"And they started looking for samples from people who tested positive during July, people from where the index case likely picked up an infection - if indeed it did come through MIQ.
"They still haven't found a match so there's no clue there, but obviously they keep looking."
He said there was nothing new to report on the genome sequencing of the weak positive case he identified yesterday.
Level 1 message: Get tested if you have symptoms
As the country outside Auckland moved to level 1 yesterday, Bloomfield stressed the importance of ongoing testing.
The messaging going forward will be for anyone who has symptoms to get tested, he said.
This is different to the end of June, when the message was for symptomatic people to get tested only if they had been overseas or had been in contact with a positive case, someone working at the border or at MIQ facilities, or someone who had been overseas.
"We were going into winter and primary care was worried about being overwhelmed by having to test everyone who...

So, first rule of polls is don’t take them all that seriously. We have never lived in an age in which polls are more all over the place.
It's a snapshot in time, and little else. So, let's take last night's numbers and see what Newshub says next week, then watch the trend as we get closer to the actual polling day.
But what we can see, is pretty much what we see each election as the day draws closer, the gap between the two major parties tightens.
Labour down five percent is bad, but to be honest not unexpected. Those numbers of 50 plus in previous polls, as we have said so many times, weren't real or anywhere close to it. National need to worry, there is no real sign of growth. That's outside of ACT which in a MMP race is really all you need. If the centre right block is growing, that's momentum. And momentum is what you want in the final weeks of a race.
The key is going to be the Greens. If the Greens are back over the threshold then you'd be churlish not to suggest that Labour will be back for a second term and comfortably. If they're not, then Labour has real trouble. Labour's number is going to do nothing but shrink between now and October 17. If the Greens aren't back that's probably the end of this government.
The great consistency appears to be the really small players, including New Zealand First who must be as close to gone as you get without actually counting a vote. And none of the others will see the light of day by the end of Saturday night.
But the Greens aren't there yet, and they under-perform so six is better than five, but it's not home bast yet.
My broad premise has been, and still is, if the Greens are gone, and you're writing off 10 percent and therefore splitting the 90 percent that's left.
Does Labour have close to 45 percent? Yes. Does National and ACT have close to 45 percent? Yes.
So, with a month to go, a slow burn of a campaign where many aren't even close to engaged, there is a lot to play for, a lot to lose, and a lot of unknowns.
If you think it's over, you're wrong.

The real test of last night's debate in a way ties in with last nights poll, how many people are engaged.
The poll still has 14% undecided, so as we said, still plenty to play for.
But as to last night's debate, how many watched? Because in that number is the clue and the key.
Last time, 3 years ago, it was Ardern and English and 1.3 million turned up, it was far and away the biggest TV audience of the year.
It showed people were thinking about an election.
I'm not sure they are right now.
Are TV debates still a big deal? The ratings out this morning will tell the story.
Small point from an experienced operator, if John Campbell learned to stop thanking people over and over and over, and if he trimmed his question to a question from a lengthy tedious dissertation, and stopped summing up each section with a lot of “this is a good debate” and “gosh its good to have you here” and then tossing in an explicable series of huffs and puffs, they could have saved at least 22 minutes between him and the commercial realities. A lot of time was wasted.
Another tip I think works but wasn’t used last night is pace.
Shorten the questions, keep the leaders on their toes.
Both Ardern and Collins are good communicators, so to keep them sharp and potentially expose them, you need to keep it short and sharp. 
It's why when runners set out for world record attempts they have a person set the pace, by slowing everything down to a geriatric dissertation, you give them too much time to stall and waffle, it got so slow at one point poor old John completely lost where he was and was comforted by Ardern and he asked for alcohol.  
Having a taped question from a so called punter is also a mistake, it’s a mistake TV 1 make election year after election year, they're broad, too broad and cover the same old issues, health, education and a lack of something, ending with the obligatory, what are you going to do for us?
Essentially, this was a debate for people who hadn't thought about anything much for the last three years, so maybe it served a purpose, a debate for new arrivals.
As for Collins, she had some good barbs, knew her policy and sold her vision and was not caught out in anyway that would damage her, indeed by the end of an hour she was into her stride and taking a certain level of control, possibly to keep herself awake.
She also ticked every box, she married a Samoan, daughter of a farmer, owned a business and she had experience in everything.     
Ardern didn’t make any real mistakes, she sold a different vision but you'd expect that, not quite as assertive, so if you loved her gentle style of waffle to start ,you would not have been disappointed, but shes lucky shes leading in the polls because if this was a pitch she lost.
If Collins was your pick, she had life and facts and took Ardern to task for 3 years of governance with plenty of holes, by the end she looked stronger than both the other 2 in the room as it turns out.
Who won? Collins, because she owned the back half of the show.
She was sharper ,more energetic, more fact and detail
If a lot of people watched, and at least some of then were genuinely undecided, votes would have been swung her way
1-0 to the Nats.

Another poll, and the first of the televised leaders' debates.
The National leader and Labour's Jacinda Ardern went head-to-head on a raft of issues - in the first televised leaders debate of the election campaign.
Former Labour and United Future politician Peter Dunne told Mike Hosking while there were no winners - Collins certainly didn't lose.
"She had much more at stake - but she did a good job of persuading National supporters she's up to the job."
Judith Collins performed well in last night's debate, but the 1News Colmar Brunton poll which preceded it, would have brought little cheer to National.
Dunne says with the poll putting Labour at 48 per cent support and National at 31 - the debate isn't likely to change much.
"It might tighten the margins - but the real race here is between the minor parties."
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THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Wednesday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) One to Collins/Polling Analysed, Explained and Misunderstood/Old Fashioned Recovery-Off/High Steaks

There is something amiss about the tourism funding help.
Millions more got announced yesterday. Some make sense, some don’t.
But what we already know is from day one this thing has had trouble. The initial grants to the likes of AJ Hackett caused upset and surprise, as we went down that old track of, if you happen to be perceived to be rich, should you get any help at all?
It’s the same with the wage subsidy: if you got help but made a profit, you should pay it back. What was forgotten was the wage subsidy was to keep jobs, it wasn’t profit related.
Would jobs have been cut if the subsidy hadn’t been in place? Yes, so it did its job. It’s not up to employers to run their companies on a break even line to maintain workers.
As for tourism, the big trouble here is the admission we aren’t open to the world until a vaccine has been effectively handed out. You tell me when that is.
And given you can’t, because no one can, just how long are we keeping these businesses propped up for.
To my mind, AJ Hackett is a world class operator. They do attract tourist both domestic and international. Waitomo does the same thing, and Whale Watch is just as good.
But yesterday’s announcement includes Rainbows End. Now I’ll get myself in trouble here, but be honest, Rainbows End is not a tourist attraction or anywhere close to it.
Yes, tourists, mainly domestic, may well use it, but the original criteria was if the venue didn’t exist would tourism numbers be materially affected.
Whale Watch counts. Why? Because it’s the major attraction in Kaikoura. Honestly, are you cancelling the trip to Auckland if Rainbows End isn’t there?
Which is not to isolate out Rainbows End, any more than it is other recipients the Art Gallery, the Zoo, the Maritime Museum, and Kelly Tarltons.
We are getting into the area of guess work here. There all worthy businesses, but every city has a museum many have zoos and art galleries. They can’t and don’t all attract tourists in and of themselves, and they can’t all be propped up forever.
Eventually, tough calls have to be made.
If you insist on locking this country up from the world, casualties will result. Drip feeding them borrowed money is almost cruel. It offers no certainty and minimal hope - what sort of business plan is that?