The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Does Auckland feel like one of the world's most liveable cities?
The trick to understanding the human condition is to realise until it affects you, you don’t really care. You can offer a bit of sympathy, a shoulder to cry on, a few wise words of advice, but until it's up in your grill ruining your day, it's not really your problem.
That's how elections work. It's why Trump, Boris Johnson and Scott Morrison won.
What people say and what they do are often two different things. That's why New Zealand First does better on election day than in polls, people are embarrassed to admit any support. Flip side the Greens, it's cool to be green but you wouldn’t actually vote for them.
So, if you're reading this in Timaru, Christchurch, Wellington, or New Plymouth, the fact Auckland's Harbour Bridge doesn’t work is of no real concern to you. Until, of course, the economic impact it has hits your town, your workplace, or your home.
That economic reality was brought home in the last Auckland lockdown. It affects the whole country. When Auckland doesn't, New Zealand doesn’t work.
Downtown Auckland currently is a mess. It didn’t function before Covid, it doesn’t function now, but in a different way, because a lot of people went home and never came back. Some of the trains are out for the week, again. Ferries are a nightmare, inconsistent and shoddy when they are running.  There is no enough water because they didn’t plan for population growth. Housing is too expensive for many making it harder to attract Labour. And the bridge is falling apart cutting half the population off from the other half.
It's got four days' worth of headlines because the bridge is the most tangible outworking of the dysfunction. And it isn't getting any better. In typical Auckland, come New Zealand, style there is no rush to sort it. The obligatory four weeks to months fixes are offered from another dysfunctional department in charge of something but responsible for nothing.  
And while all this has been slowly but inevitably bubbling to the mess we currently face, leaders have declared climate emergencies, indulged their passion for wastage on things like bike lanes, and pretended it’s a globally liveable city. There should be charges for civil fraud for this sort of behaviour.
We are here because we sadly deserve to be. We don’t care, we don’t vote, and we don’t hold people to account.
The same is happening with the government and Covid-19. We are prisoners to an ideology, the economy has crashed, and we are pretending we did well. But New Zealand as a country is like Auckland and its bridge or its water.
After a while it's damage becomes increasingly evident, the impact increasingly wide, and the tolerance increasingly low. The question at all stages, in all the scenarios, is the same, just how long are you prepared to put up with it?
Why don’t you want more and better? How long can we pretend? Is this actually the best we can do? What needs to break, stop, or die before we finally wake up to the fact this country is, in fact, a broken bridge and no one is going anywhere fast?

THE BEST BITS IN A SILLIER PACKAGE (from Tuesday's Mike Hosking Breakfast) What a Mess/Is Rainbow's End a Tourist Trap?/Who's Enrolled/Movie Money/Advice for Campbell

Jacinda Ardern and radio host Mike Hosking have gone head to head on New Zealand's Covid response, with the Prime Minister insisting our recovery is on track to be better than Australia's.
Despite New Zealand's GDP falling 12 per cent compared to Australia's 7 per cent in the most recent June quarter, Ardern said New Zealand's debt and unemployment levels were lower, and there had been fewer deaths.
Our wage subsidy supported 1.7 million people and businesses had been supported financially faster, she told Hosking on Newstalk ZB today.
Melbourne was also still in a significant lockdown.
"It's a pure matter of opinion... we've still got a way to run. Many times when you and I have discussed New Zealand's approach to Australia, my view has been let's see how things fare when we are out the other side of this."
Hosking played Ardern an audio clip of Australian PM Scott Morrison, talking about the countries' relative GDP performance.
"Why do you think PM Morrison was having to answer that question? Because New Zealand in Australia is compared favourably for its approach," said Ardern.
She told Hosking that he was assuming New Zealand was not going to have a sharper recovery. "If your measure of success is one quarter of GDP, that's for you."
"All the signs are that we are going to have a sharp recovery."
She said there was no cost-free or impact-free response to the pandemic. "There is no economy in the world that either hasn't had a hit to the likes of consumer confidence or a hit to GDP or a hit to debt levels. Relative to other countries, we are more open."
Hosking challenged Ardern on that comment, saying she was "making this up as you go along" - highlighting New South Wales, which had more cases than New Zealand, would have full crowds back at big rugby league games this weekend.
Ardern said NSW had recently had limits on hospitality and gatherings like New Zealand, which is also easing rules as of today.
Ardern: "Mike, if in your view there's a perfect model here, you are welcome to that view."
Hosking: "No you are being too linear. It's not a matter of a perfect model or a non-perfect model, it's about nuance and subtlety."
Ardern: "Mike, if you're saying you're now a person of nuance and subtlety, bless. I am not going to claim perfection but I will stand by our response."

Ardern said that director general of health Ashley Bloomfield had asked Cabinet to consider a 500-person limit for indoor gatherings at level 1.

A couple of interesting things to come out of the weekend’s poll on the Auckland central electorate.
The first, the slightly less interesting bit is 20 percent are undecided. That means the final race will be tighter than it currently is.
The high undecided number is because the incumbent Nikki Kaye is going and people will be working out whether her national replacement is up to much.
It’s been of late a tight run race and this time will be no different.
The second and much more interesting bit is that Chloe Swarbrick won’t win it
Coming third already, she will stay third, and as a result, if the Greens need her to win, it’s over.
The only other seat of any great interest - remembering of course MMP is about percentage of the vote; with few exceptions, very few individual races count for anything – was Northland.
But a poll some weeks back indicating Shane Jones was coming nowhere sort of put that to bed.
Which is what made Friday's coverage of the Wairarapa seat kind of strange. It’s almost as though the media haven’t quite worked out how MMP works.
Whether labour or national win Wairarapa doesn’t matter to the parliament. It matters to parties for bragging rights but it doesn’t change the makeup of government. So, why cover it?
Of course, Epsom is a separate kettle of fish, with it being the only seat left with a special arrangement. David Seymour will once again win it, and potentially given the coat tailing rules, drag some more MPs in without crossing the five per cent threshold.
Having said that with the tail wind he appears to have, I am sure he’s looking for a plus 5 number next month
Anyway back to Auckland Central. Chloe is not the Greens saviour, so it’s up to the Greens to put the Shaw green school debacle behind them and hope like hell the history of underperforming on the night compared to pre-election polling doesn’t come true. Because if it does, they’re gone.
And if that happens one of the potential talking points out of that is it will be entirely possible that act aside, we will be electing a FPP parliament – just two major parties – just like the good old days.
We wanted MMP but 20 odd years on we are voting it out.

Andrew Saville and Guy Heveldt join Mike Hosking for this weeks Commentary Box looking at the Tour de France, the Ranfurly Shield and why Brendon Hartly winning Le Mans barely gets any coverage.
One of the greatest races in motor racing yet hardly any coverage from our mainstream media. 
Hosking asks his sporting chums "What other individual sport have we got, not golf not tennis, where we are so well represented at such a high level internationally and yet comparatively speaking gets so little coverage?"
Saville agrees to an extent but thinks some forms of racing gets good coverage.
Helveldt wonders could Hartly's second victory in the famous race open other doors in say Formula One?
"No, he's too old" says Hosking.
The frank reality being unless your Lewis Hamilton or have millions of dollars behind you then you're probably not going to get into Formula One.
As for Danny Lee's six putt shocker at the US Open well the Commentary Box team thinks he just gave up and it's season over for the Warriors.
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International yachties won't be able to seek shelter in New Zealand during cyclone season.
Up to 250 boats are seeking a safe harbour.Ocean Cruising Club roving Rear Commodore Guy Chester told Mike Hosdkingthey understood two weeks ago that seasonal conditions would be taken into account.
They've since been told refuge from the South Pacific cyclone season isn't a compelling reason, and exemptions won't be granted.
"We're quite dismayed. It leaves a whole lot of yachts at risk in the Pacific cyclone zone, that would normally migrate towards New Zealand and stay around the North Island for the summer."
Foreign yachts waiting to leave the Pacific have been told to make immediate, alternative arrangements.
Chester says the boaties would have a coronavirus test before leaving for New Zealand.
"To have have complete self-isolation on the boats until they arrive, to only the officials onboard for clearance, to then maintain complete self isolation."
He says the club had negotiated a self-isolation process with marinas in Whangarei and the Bay of Islands.

High hopes for Auckland as the Prime Minister reveals if the country's Alert Levels will move today.
Auckland is sitting at Level 2.5, with the rest of the country at Level Two.
Auckland Business Chamber chief executive Michael Barnett told Mike Hosking  the city should go to a level that starts with one - even if it's one and a bit.
"There might be some constraints about sizes of audiences and so on, but really Auckland needs to be encouraged to make the best of this environment and start the road to recovery."

Daniel Andrews has hinted for the first time that Melbourne may be lifted out of lockdown before October 26, maybe even in a couple of weeks.
Melburnians are waking up today with the prospect of having to endure just a couple more weeks of lockdown as the state's cases continue to plummet.
This morning, the news just keeps getting better as the state recorded just 11 new cases – marking the eleventh consecutive day the state has recorded a daily infections number of below 50.
Epidemiologists are now predicting Victoria's 14-day average will dip below five cases a day within a fortnight – opening a window of opportunity for Melbourne to be reopened.
The state is currently operating under a strict road map that doesn't suggest the city will be freed until October 26, with a caveat on new case numbers.
However, Andrews suggested for the first time yesterday that this is no longer set in stone.
"We will always be guided by those three things: the evidence and the science, the data and what is deemed safe," the Premier said. "We are on schedule. We may even be a bit ahead of schedule, but we've got to keep going."
‌Now it is understood the government could abandon the October 26 date if the cases target is met and it is deemed safe to do so.
It would mean public gatherings of up to 10 people would be allowed, shops would be able to reopen, ­restaurants could offer outdoor dining and the ­curfew would come to an end.
‌
Yesterday, Victoria recorded just 14 new cases — the lowest number in three months — with the 14-day average dropping to just 38.4.

Senate Democrats, lacking votes to stop President Donald Trump's pick to fill the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's seat, are weighing an array of tactics to battle back -- ranging from bringing the chamber to a screeching halt this year to pushing legislation to expand the court if they win the majority in the fall.
Democrats began discussing their options on Saturday, with senators all vowing a furious fight to keep the seat vacant until next year when a new Senate convenes and when Joe Biden may occupy the White House. And while no specific course of action was detailed, Democrats said they were united on this: They planned to engage in an all-out battle to stop the nomination in its tracks by pressuring four Republicans to break ranks.
"Mitch McConnell believes that this fight is over. What Mitch McConnell does not understand is this fight has just begun," said Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, speaking at a Ginsburg vigil on Saturday.
First, Democrats want to stop the nomination, and they are considering taking unusual steps to bottle up all business in the Senate to drag out the proceedings as long as possible, senators said. Under the rules, which require the chamber to operate by unanimous consent, Democrats can object to routine business of the day and essentially ground the chamber to a halt.
McConnell could eventually get around such stall tactics if he has the support of 51 senators, but they could drag out the proceedings.
And if the Democrats ultimately fail to stop the nominee, they are indicating that they may push legislation to expand the Supreme Court by adding additional seats to retaliate against what they view as Republicans' heavy-handed tactics.
It's an option that has picked up increased interest in the wake of Ginsburg's death -- and one that Democratic leaders are not ruling out.
"We basically have kept options open," Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin told CNN's Newsroom anchor Ana Cabrera Saturday night when asked about adding more seats to the court.
"We'd rather see this go through the regular process that Senator (Mitch) McConnell announced four years ago and that all of the Republicans stepped forward and said that we believe in this approach: We don't fill vacancies on the Supreme Court in the last year of a president's term," Durbin said in reference to GOP senators' 2016 sentiments on filling Supreme Court vacancies.
McConnell vowed Friday that whomever Trump nominates to replace Ginsburg will get a vote on the Senate floor, arguing the situation is different now than in 2016 because Republicans control the Senate and White House.
The topic of how Democrats should respond was a dominant theme in a conference call the Senate Democratic Caucus held Saturday afternoon, according to Democratic sources, where many Democratic senators spoke about the events and where Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned that "nothing is off the table" if a Trump nominee is confirmed this election year.
Schumer on Friday said that a Supreme Court vacancy "should not be filled until we have a new president."
But several things would have to happen in order for Democrats to be successful in their approach to expanding the Supreme Court.
First, Senate Democrats would have to win the majority in November -- and the fight for control of the chamber is currently at a razor's edge. If they win the majority, it almost certainly will be an extremely narrow advantage -- potentially one or two seats, or even a 50-50 Senate. And if Biden wins the presidency, they then would have to take a series of steps to make expanding the high court a reality.
It would then include gutting the filibuster, a stall tactic frequently used by the Senate's minority party and that requires 60 votes in the chamber to overcome. They would need a simple majority of senators to get that threshold down to 51.
But several Democratic senators have...

Covid-19 border restrictions could result in a fraction of seasonal worker arrivals...with the shortage having the potential to cripple the economic recovery.
Massey University sociologist Professor Paul Spoonley says there were nearly 111-thousand more departures than arrivals between March and August.
He told Mike Hosking we've gone from gaining seven thousand permanent migrants and 300-thousand temporary ones - to now losing a 100,000. 
"Whichever party is in Government is going to have to move very fast to work out how we match the people that they need to come into the country, and how we quarantine them."
He says due to Covid-19 the recognised seasonal employment scheme brought in around 3000 less workers this year.
"I'm in Central Otago at the moment. So Central, Marlborough, Hawkes Bay, they've got billion dollar crops waiting to be processed and pipped, so who's going to do that work?"