The Mike Hosking Breakfast

The opening of the Government's books is set to reveal fiscal numbers that reflect the response to the urgent health and economic situation.
Treasury will today unveil its Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update - or PREFU - something it's required by law to do ahead of every New Zealand election.
It'll include a number of important sets of economic data, such as the expected level of Government debt, expected tax revenue numbers as projected deficits going forward.
Economist Cameron Bagrie says we're borrowing big and putting an awful lot on the credit card.
“That’s the right policy response in the near term - to try to help the economy get back on its own feet, but that's going to take a bit of time.”
Bagrie says what the update won't tell us - is what the adjustment looks like on the other side of Covid-19.
‘If you leverage up the balance sheet by taking on a lot of debt, you're borrowing off the next generation.
“That will be a story beyond today's update,  but something that we need to keep in mind.”
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Winston Peters has suggested using military aircraft, to bring seasonal workers from the Pacific into New Zealand to work in orchards.
Peters, who is also New Zealand's Foreign Minister, said that New Zealand's military could be doing "so much more" to prevent more economic damage in the horticulture sector.
The Foreign Minister says getting commercial airliners to Pacific countries hasn't been possible.
Peters says there's still a large pool of seasonal workers who haven't returned home.
But he told Mike Hosking if that pool of workers can't cover the horticulture labour shortage, the Government needs to be taking proactive action.
"When push comes to shove, they will end up with a crop that you can't supply the local workplace for. We have to get our exports going, it's just plain common sense."
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A bone for the planes just in time for the holidays, which in and of itself is good news for places like Queenstown.
The irony, of course, is that nothing has changed for the change to take place.
There must be a middle row left empty – no, hang on, we can fill that. What’s changed? Nothing.
Like so many of the decisions made, it may or may not make any sense.
You could argue the country outside Auckland got a bit of a bone too, if things go well, whatever that means, we can be in level 1 this time next week.
Not so good for Auckland: Auckland will be stuck here for over a week and a half more, which basically means we write off September.
The Prime Minister tried in her pulpit of truth announcement to explain that the economy was fine we are seeing a fabulous bounce back not dissimilar to what we saw in level 1 last time
I don’t know who’s telling her that, or whether like the SANZAR Rugby Championship line, she literally made it up. But I think come Wednesday with the government’s fiscal update we will see the truth, and come Thursday, the GDP number will indisputably show how crushing their attitude and inability to unlock the country economically has been.
The sadness of course is the virus numbers and scenario they deal with today is no different to what they dealt with a couple of weeks ago. A handful of cases, a bit of a tail, and a few things they clearly can’t control - this sadly is our lot.
They can get on top of virtually nothing: a handful of cases are crippling our economy, simple as that.
A number the PM gave gives us a clue as to how frightened they are: 25 per cent.
That’s a 25 per cent chance according to the ministry of health of the virus getting out of Auckland. Here’s another way of looking at it: a 75 per cent chance it won’t.
I take the second odds, and a lot of people take the second odds.
That’s why her claim that we have one of the most open economies in the world is simply not true
Having lost the elimination argument, she is now floundering, making stuff, up justifying the unjustifiable. We are writing off vast swathes of this year for increasingly no good reason.
Having said that, did you expect anything different? Of course not, and in that is the complete abdication of leadership and any sort of vision, beyond the one stop shop of panic, lock up, and hope no one notices the country collapsed.

Pink Floyd has to be one of the most successful rock bands of all time - selling more than 250 million records.
And Nick Mason was the drummer and a founding member - he's also the only member to feature on all the band's albums.
Back in 2018 - Mason formed the band, Saucerful of Secrets, and they've been performing early Pink Floyd songs to rave reviews.
And now they have a live album from their 2019 performance at London's legendary roundhouse that is titled Live at the Roundhouse.
Nick Mason joined Mike Hosking for a chat. 
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Kim Darroch is astonished.
Britain’s former U.S. ambassador, whose career ended abruptly when his frank views on President Donald Trump were leaked, spent 40 years as a diplomat. But he says he’s never before seen a British government saying it plans to break international law.
“It’s all-round extraordinary,” Darroch said about Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s intention to override part of the legally binding Brexit agreement that the British government struck with the European Union.
“It’s one of the things that we thought was a basic principle of Britain’s face to the world: that we stuck by international law and agreements,” Darroch said.
Darroch is speaking during a tumultuous political week. The British government says its “specific and limited” breach of international law is needed to guarantee trade can flow freely to Northern Ireland regardless of the outcome of EU trade talks. But Johnson’s proposed law has infuriated EU leaders, who are threatening legal action. A political battle is looming in Britain's Parliament, and the government’s top civil service lawyer has resigned.
“What does it do for our reputation? How will others look at us if we are saying: ‘We will sign a deal with you, … but if we look at it six months later and decide we don’t like that, we’ll just change it unilaterally, and you’ll just have to live with it?’” said Darroch, who also previously served as Britain's ambassador to the EU.
He could be forgiven for having a sense of déjà vu.
Darroch became envoy to Washington in 2016 and had a ringside seat for the first chaotic years of the Trump administration. He describes it in “Collateral Damage,” an entertaining account of his tenure in Washington and its dramatic end. The book is scheduled to be published Oct. 13 in the U.S. by PublicAffairs.
Darroch’s illustrious diplomatic career imploded in July 2019 when the Mail on Sunday newspaper published leaked confidential memos in which the ambassador described Trump’s White House as dysfunctional, incompetent, clumsy and inept.
Such frankness is expected by governments of their ambassadors. But an enraged Trump branded Darroch “a very stupid guy” and said the U.S. administration would no longer deal with him. Darroch was on a flight back to London within days.
The book vividly conveys the vertiginous feeling of being at the center of a political and media storm. But Darroch is remarkably philosophical about the sudden end to his diplomatic career.
“I don’t really do bitterness,” Darroch, who now holds the title Lord Darroch of Kew as a member of Britain's House of Lords, said. “It’s a deliberate choice.”
“Collateral Damage,” is just as interested in exploring how Trump’s insurgent, often dysfunctional administration operated as in analyzing the secrets of the president’s appeal. In the book, Darroch calls it an “intoxicating mix” of star quality, media savvy and an ability to tap into popular resentments.
Boris Johnson helped end Darroch’s career when, after the leak, he publicly declined to say that the ambassador should keep his job. But -- ever the diplomat —Darroch is even-handed about the British leader. He thinks parallels between Johnson and Trump have often been overstated.
Unlike Trump, Johnson is generally supportive of immigration, extols free trade and accepts the need for strong action on climate change.
But Darroch says Johnson, who shares a ruthless streak and an intense ambition with Trump, is “fascinated” by the U.S. president,
“Particularly by Trump’s use of language,” he said. “He does speak with a simplicity and a directness, also sometimes a divisiveness, that is kind of unique.”
There’s a similar directness to the simple slogans -- “Take Back Control” and “Get Brexit Done” -- that helped Johnson win the 2016 Brexit referendum and the 2019 U.K. election.
Darroch also thinks Johnson may be emulating Trump in the British government’s...

Two of France’s biggest cities with COVID-19 infection rates gathering speed even faster than the national surge in new cases are tightening limits on public activities as the French government seeks to ward off a new nationwide lockdown.
The stricter restrictions announced Monday in Marseille and Bordeaux were responses to a demand from France’s prime minister that both cities take additional steps to stem their growing numbers of infections, which were putting pressure on regional health services.
In Bordeaux, the top government official for the region announced a ban on gatherings of more than 10 people in public parks, along the city’s picturesque river and on beaches.
Also banned are fun fairs, antique fairs and neighborhood parties. The new rules also limit the size of large public gatherings to no more than 1,000 people, below the national benchmark of 5,000 people. That limit covers places like stadiums and concert halls, as well as demonstrations.
To counter partying, Bordeaux cafes and restaurants will also no longer be able to serve clients who are standing up and will not be able to play music outdoors. Dancing is forbidden in public venues, including at weddings. Drinking alcohol in public is also banned in Bordeaux, a center of the French wine industry.
The regional government also asked Bordeaux residents to limit private family gatherings, singling out weddings, to a maximum of 10 people.
The Gironde region that includes Bordeaux was largely spared France’s first wave of infections that overwhelmed hospitals and led to a two-month lockdown from March. But it is now seeing a surge in positive tests, at rates above the national average, especially in the 15-44 age group.
In Marseille, France’s second-biggest city after Paris, the regional government announced a series of similar restrictions and the cancellation of an 11-day international festival, as well as a growing number of localities where masks will be obligatory outdoors.
The Marseille region's top government official vowed to quickly close down bars and restaurants that don’t observe an overnight curfew and that serve clients who stand up. Clients also will no longer be able to share pipes for smoking fragrant tobaccos, a popular pastime for some immigrant groups.
Student parties are banned and school trips are suspended. Shows and other events in public halls, in tents and sports arenas are being limited to 1,000 people, who must be seated and kept apart.
France is grappling with the double headache of trying revive its COVID-battered economy while also curbing a steady climb in infections, spread during summer months when vacationers let their guard down and picked up by increased testing.
France’s health agency announced Saturday that the country crossed the threshold of 10,000 new cases nationwide in 24 hours, a record.

All Blacks coach Ian Foster has hit out at reports suggesting several players are considering pulling out of this year's Rugby Championship for family reasons.
Reports emerged yesterday that a group of key All Blacks players told New Zealand Rugby that they don't want to leave their families for up to 10 weeks to play in the competition, which could include spending Christmas in quarantine.
Among the players named were first-fives Richie Mo'unga and Beauden Barrett, halfback TJ Perenara and winger Sevu Reece.
Both Mo'unga and Perenara recently had newborn babies, while Barrett and Reece are also expecting their first children.
The reports came after Sanzaar announced that Australia will host the Rugby Championship in November and December, with the All Blacks due to play the Wallabies in two Bledisloe Cup tests in New Zealand in October.
While dates for the Rugby Championship haven't been confirmed, reports suggest All Blacks players could be forced to spend Christmas in quarantine due to New Zealand's 14-day quarantine rules.
Speaking to Newstalk ZB, Foster denied claims that some of his players were set to skip the four-team competition - although he did admit discussions were being held with players about the issue.
"I read that report yesterday and it was pretty frustrating that those headlines came out without any facts behind it," Foster said. "Are we in trouble? No, we're not in trouble. Are we having conversations with players? Of course we are.
"We're trying to be responsible employers and talk to a whole lot of players. This is all new to everyone, taking players away for nine weeks where you can't get back and it's becoming increasingly obvious it's going to be hard to bring players over later.
"So it's a big chunk of time and we're just working in through with players."
Foster said he had spoken to the players named in the reports and insisted it wasn't true.
"I've had no player at all, and I've spoken to the players who were noted in the articles. I've spoken to all those players and I haven't heard anything like what has been reported. Right now, people just want to know what the facts are and we're gathering them up at the moment."
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern confirmed that the New Zealand Government will change quarantine rules to allow the Wallabies more time to prepare for the Bledisloe Cup in New Zealand.
Ardern said the Director General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield had advised that the Wallabies would now be able to start training after three days and as a full squad after six days, with previous protocols restricting the team to training in limited bubbles.
The Prime Minister also said she spoke to her Australian counterpart Scott Morrison last night to ensure the two Bledisloe Cup tests would go ahead, following claims from Wallabies coach Dave Rennie that the team may boycott the first test if they weren't allowed enough time to prepare.
Foster said he was "thrilled" with the change in quarantine rules to allow the Bledisloe tests to go ahead.
"Very thrilled with that even though we're bitterly disappointed we're losing the Rugby Championship but we're finished sulking about that," Foster said. "We're looking forward to it and now can't wait to sort out these Bleds. A little bit of water to go under the bridge but today's news is positive."
Foster also responded to Rennie's threat to skip the first test altogether, saying there's now no excuses for Australia not to play both tests.



"He's come out strong based on information about the quarantine. We listened to that. But at the same time we were busy talking hard with the government about relaxing it.
"Now I think we've achieved that, when you look an equitable situation which is about giving two teams a fair chance at preparing. To basically have 13 free days to prepare for a test match, in an international sports world is...

It was only a matter of time.
Lewis Hamilton is now under investigation for wearing a t-shirt post yesterday's Grand Prix wanting the police arrested for shooting Breonna Taylor who was a victim in Kentucky.
It was always going here because the moment you start something like this, whatever you thought you started, spirals. It's a knee, it's a fist in the air, it's a slogan on a helmet, or a message on a t shirt. All of it well intentioned, but whether it achieves anything, like stopping people being shot, is another matter.
A couple of cops were shot in Los Angeles over the weekend, and I am assuming none of the t-shirts will be mentioning their names. I equally assume the phone number to raise the $50 million they want to try and put Kenosha back together from its burnings and lootings won't get the same sort of coverage.
But the line between politics and sport has always been tricky. But by constantly exploring it, you inevitably ask for trouble.
And making it even more precarious is the fact some of sports' leading names are running the programme. From LeBron James, to Lewis Hamilton, these people are a step up from Colin Kaepernick who, when he started all this in San Francisco, was a quarterback of note, but hardly Tom Brady or Brett Favre. In other words, he was a player not an icon, who have more power over the sport than the sport has over them.
But here's the rub, as worthy as the messages they carry may be, like all things in life, time and place plays a significant role. Just because you can, doesn’t mean you should. Just because you think it's important doesn’t mean everyone agrees. Just because there is a moment or venue, it doesn’t mean people want it,  need it, or more importantly, expect it or welcome it.
Which to a degree has always been the magic of sport. Not only are you enjoying rare talent but it's in a neutral venue. A place away from the world of politics, frustration, anger, and dispute.
It's a place where millions can come from disparate and diverse backgrounds but put their differences aside for a couple of halves, or a race, and all agree that what we are collectively doing is separate from the rest our existence views or outlooks.
The value of the escape that sport provides has, and is as, important as any movement or societal ill that it can draw our attention to.
So, Hamilton is remembered now for a protest and an investigation, not a win. If he was a professional protestor that would be fine, but Mercedes don't employ him to protest and never did.

Air New Zealand yesterday sold 70,000 domestic fares in six hours - 10 times the number of last Monday 
A delighted Air New Zealand chief executive, Greg Foran, said Kiwis had been quick to book domestic holidays and trips after the Government yesterday eased physical distancing on planes and indicated most of New Zealand - aside from Auckland - could be in level 1 by Tuesday.
The announcements saw Air New Zealand introduce 160,000 fares of $50 or less into the market. Soon after that Jetstar announced it was roaring back to this country's domestic skies later this week.
Foran said 70,000 airfares had been sold in six hours - compared with 7000 airfares on Monday last week.
"They [travellers] are going all over the country - the load factors have been solid everywhere," Foran told Mike Hosking.
"Not everyone is going to Queenstown... they're going to all kinds of places from Hokitika, to Invercargill, to Kerikeri, Gisborne, Napier. We're very pleased with this situation."
Most airlines tried to operate at 80 per cent capacity - operating at 50 per cent wasn't viable. "Once we can get this middle-seat open, which we have with people wearing masks, that's a big deal for us."

The Government and Health Ministry aren't giving up on finding the original source of the current Auckland Covid-19 cluster.
There are now 177 cases making up the cluster, with 55 active.
Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield told Mike Hosking they're keen to find out where the outbreak started.
He's confident it wasn't a case simmering in the community, and believes it must have come through the border somewhere.
"The question is whether it happened through a casual contact at the airport or port, or whether it happened at a managed isolation facility."
Health authorities are backing Auckland University's Covid-19 modelling.
Jacinda Ardern says modelling for the Ministry of Health suggests around a 25 percent chance of Covid-19 cases moving outside the Auckland region.
Dr Ashley Bloomfield says the percentage will continue to drop, if case numbers decrease in the coming days.
He says the modellers put in a range of assumptions - around travel patterns, the number of cases in Auckland, and different likelihoods of the virus spreading.