The Mike Hosking Breakfast

COMMENT:
So there's quite a lot of bad news in last night's Newshub poll.
Sadly, lot of it is bad news for Newshub who, I think, will have to explain how Labour aren't, won't, never were, never will, be getting the 60 percent support they currently claim they have.
It's not directly their fault, the numbers are given to them by the people they pay to do the collection, but 60 percent in a MMP environment is not real, or close to real.
Nor does it, of course tally, with the other polls, one of which was featured earlier yesterday. Under the headline "Game On" and Judith Collins is fizzing, given the Stuff-Massey poll has National on 40.
Newshub has them on 25, One has them on 38, so is it 24, 40, or 38?
So here's the deal with polls, don't take them seriously. And certainly don't take them seriously at a time like this, given what the world is going through the numbers could be anything. And it is only on the day, that we will really know.
The reality is it may take until the day, election day, that a lot of people actually tune in, think about it, and actually make a decision. Given the world right now, even with an election close, a lot of people have vastly more important things to think about.
Jobs might be one of them, along with meeting bills, their future, and their kids future. This country is upside down, it's a massive mess and hundreds of thousands of lives are being tossed asunder. Who supports who will be dealt with for many, on another day.
If there is one consistency in all the polls it’s the third parties who are heading for extinction. ACT aside, who are up in all polls, and will be back given the Epsom deal. But for New Zealand First and the Greens all polls show either they miss by a lot, or they're on the very edge, and should be freaking out.
And as for any of the other pretenders looking to make their mark, forget it. Pack up, go home, and save your money. The Greens making it back will be a miracle, far less the less than one percenters.
As for National and Labour, believe me this will be way closer than certainly last night's numbers show.
You simply can't have 40, 38, and 25 for National all by credible, professional outfits all claiming a certain level of accuracy and realistically believe any of it.
Never before have polls been less real, less relevant, or less accurate.
Right now a dartboard would work just as well.

The University of Copenhagen has conducted research, finding that young people up to the age of 39 still require financial help from parents.
The same can be said for kiwis, with figures in New Zealand from 2018 showing more than half of first home buyers turning to their parents for help.
Founder and Managing Partner of Auckland accounting firm Gilligan Sheppard Bruce Sheppard told Mike Hosking, parents are in a vulnerable position when dealing with their kids, and they are often emotionally influenced to give money even when their own financial circumstances are not ideal. 
Mr Sheppard says it is best to get some financial advice before handing out cash, to take the emotional aspect out of it. 
He adds a big part of the problem is that incomes have not risen along with house prices.
"[Housing is] unaffordable because incomes haven't risen in parallel with the growth in the economy."
FOUNDER AND MANAGING PARTNER OF AUCKLAND ACCOUNTING FIRM GILLIGAN SHEPPARD ON THE BANK OF MUM AND DAD PUTTING PARENTS AT RISK

Every Friday morning, Mike Hosking is joined by Tim Wilson and Kate Hawkesby to wrap the week in news.
LISTEN ABOVE.

The Warriors are already considering the impact of covid-19 beyond this NRL season, with cases in Victoria and New South Wales resurgent and a trans-Tasman bubble looking distant.
The club is based on the Central Coast this year.
Chief executive Cameron George says it's something they and the NRL are monitoring.
Warriors chairman Rob Croot joined Mike Hosking to discuss the future for the embattled club.
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An economist is calling for a change to the managed isolation systems.
The New Zealand Initiative believes all travellers should be required to book their own 14 day isolation.
Dr Eric Crampton says approved hotels would set their own fees, while the Government would charge each facility for the cost of police, military and other amenities.
"This would give officials a better handle on what the upcoming demand will look like,  and when more staff are going to be needed."
Eric Crampton suggests a voucher to cover the full or partial cost for New Zealand travellers.
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One in 10 Australian workers will be unemployed by Christmas the Morrison Government has predicted in a grim COVID-19 forecast.

Warning the world faced the most significant economic challenge since the Great Depression, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has revealed the nation now faces an $850 billion debt bomb that will take decades to repay.
But he’s reassured voters that the nation’s debt-to-GDP ratio remains much better than other comparable countries.
However, the jobs outlook remains grim with thousands to join the unemployed queues.
“The jobs market will take time to recover with the unemployment rate forecast to peak at 9.25 per cent in the December quarter 2020,” Mr Frydenberg said.
“Beyond 2020, labour market conditions will strengthen but it will take some time for the unemployment rate to decline.
“There remains significant uncertainty around global and domestic recovery.
“We’re not out of the woods yet.”
Despite the grim outlook, the Treasurer said the rise in unemployment triggered by the virus outbreak could have been a lot worse.
“Without the Government’s support unemployment would be 5 per cent higher. The Government’s actions have saved 700,000 jobs,” he said.
Mr Frydenberg shared the jobs outlook in an economic outlook update that shows Australia’s budget deficit will hit the $184 billion mark this financial year, in the biggest blowout since World War II.
Just months ago, he had hoped to hand down the first budget surplus in Australia in years.
As pandemic lockdowns deliver a once in a century hit to tax revenues, he has also confirmed the 2019-20 budget deficit – the difference between the government’s revenue and outlays in that year is $85.8 billion.
“These harsh numbers reflect the harsh reality we face the economic outlook remains very uncertain,” Mr Frydenberg said.
“Recent events in Victoria are a testament to this, a painful reminder, how a setback in combating the virus can impact the speed and the trajectory of our national economic recovery.”
The good news, according to the Treasurer, is that some jobs are recovering strongly in those states where COVID-19 has been suppressed and the economy is reopening,
“Restrictions are being eased as they effectively manage the coronavirus. So last week’s job numbers, where 210,000 people found a job, 60 per cent of whom were women, 50 per cent of whom were young people, was double what the market expected.”
Labor’s treasury spokesman Jim Chalmer said the Morrison Government had to stop the excuses and come up with a plan to create jobs.
“These are dark days and confronting numbers in the budget update today,’’ he said.
“We now know the government expects 240,000 Australians to lose their job between now and Christmas. Now, Australians already knew that things were grim, when it came to jobs in the economy, but what they desperately wanted to hear today from the government was a plan with how to deal with that unemployment.”
Those figures reflect the $289 billion that the Morrison Government has dropped on stimulus measures including direct payments to people on welfare, increases to JobSeeker and the JobKeeper wage subsidy.
But it’s the debt levels that have blown out to a stunning $840 billion as the Prime Minister and Treasurer were forced to borrow more money to pay for those measures and were hit by lower tax revenues.
Mr Frydenberg said that Australia continues to have a low debt to GDP ratio compared with other countries.
By news.com.au

Nurses treating vulnerable patients in Auckland EDs have also been working lucrative shifts at managed quarantine hotels - sparking warnings from a nurses' union.
Nurses Society of New Zealand (NSNZ) has been warning its 5500 members against working for more than one employer due to the risk of Covid-19 infection and has raised concerns with all three District Health Boards in Auckland.
It comes months after Waitakere Hospital changed its protocols due to transmission concerns about treating both Covid-19 patients and people on different wards.
National Party health spokesman Shane Reti has slammed the Government for allowing this to happen, saying it's "completely unacceptable" and was calling for it to end urgently.
Minister of Health Chris Hipkins said he had already had discussions about this issue and was seeking further advice.
"Nurses working in managed isolation and quarantine facilities are skilled professionals who understand infection control and are using all the appropriate PPE," Hipkins said.
"However, we are constantly reviewing policies and procedures to ensure everything is being done to keep New Zealanders safe."
However, the Ministry of Health is defending the moonlighting, saying the safety procedures at managed quarantine hotels are robust and sufficient.
"This is both legal and well managed within the sector," a ministry spokesperson said.
When asked how many nurses it was aware of working in EDs and managed quarantine facilities, it said "some" and wouldn't comment further.
The Herald understands nurses working at managed quarantine hotels were paid about $500 a shift by Government-partnered company Geneva Healthcare.
Nurses unions wouldn't comment on how much its members were being paid but said it was a "good earner for them".
It's unknown if hospital staff have been working at Jet Park where positive Covid-19 cases are staying.


A spokesperson for all Auckland DHBs (including Waitematā, Auckland and Counties Manukau) said they encouraged staff to keep their managers informed of any work they do outside of our DHBs so that we can support them to remain safe.
"Nurses working in our EDs are also a group who are highly trained in infection prevention and control. We routinely care for patients with infectious diseases through our EDs and are confident measures are in place to protect the safety of our patients, staff and whānau.
"There have been no known instances in Auckland of a DHB worker infecting a patient at any time during the pandemic in the hospital setting."
David Wills, director of NSNZ, said the union had been approached by a handful of members who were working in managed isolation or quarantine facilities, as well as working for DHBs, including in EDs.
"Our advice to such members has been that they must notify their managers in their respective DHB that they are working in managed isolation," Wills said.
"Moreover that generally they should not be working in both roles."He said they had sent out dozens of notices to their members warning them against working for two employers given the risk of Covid-19 infection.
"Since March the union had seen many cases of members being required to stop working for more than one employer because of Covid-19 control measures.
"Now that we are in Covid-19 level 1, and there is no community transmission, this may no longer be an absolute necessity - except for nurses actually working in high-risk areas and in roles in managed isolation, quarantine, border roles and testing.
"Case-by-case consideration should be appropriate."
Wills said there were also occasions earlier in the year where the union raised this matter with senior nurse managers in DHBs.
A spokesman for another union, New Zealand Nurses Organisation (NZNO), said they were unable to comment on the issue at present.
A Ministry of Health spokesperson confirmed the...

President Donald Trump announced he will send federal agents to Chicago and Albuquerque, New Mexico, to help combat rising crime, expanding the administration’s intervention into local enforcement as he runs for reelection under a “law and order” mantle.
Using the same alarmist language he has employed to describe illegal immigration, Trump painted Democrat-led cities as out of control and lashed out at the “radical left," which he blamed for rising violence in some cities, even though criminal justice experts say it defies easy explanation.
“In recent weeks there has been a radical movement to defund, dismantle and dissolve our police department,” Trump said Wednesday at a White House event, blaming the movement for “a shocking explosion of shootings, killings, murders and heinous crimes of violence."
“This bloodshed must end," he said. “This bloodshed will end.”
The decision to dispatch federal agents to American cities is playing out at a hyperpoliticized moment when Trump is grasping for a new reelection strategy after the coronavirus upended the economy, dismantling what his campaign had seen as his ticket to a second term. With less than four months until Election Day, Trump has been warning that violence will worsen if his Democratic rival Joe Biden is elected in November and Democrats have a chance to make the police reforms they have endorsed after the killing of George Floyd and nationwide protests demanding racial justice.
Trump and Barr spoke only of Chicago and Albuquerque, but the White House said in a later press release that the program would be expanded in the next few weeks into Cleveland, Detroit and Milwaukee, as well.
Crime began surging in some cities when stay-at-home orders lifted. Criminal justice experts seeking answers have pointed to the unprecedented moment: a pandemic that has killed over 140,000 Americans, historic unemployment, a mass reckoning over race and police brutality, intense stress and even the weather. Compared with other years, crime in 2020 is down overall.
The plan Trump announced Wednesday expands an existing program that sent hundreds of federal agents to Kansas City, Missouri, after a 4-year-old boy’s shooting death to help quell a record rise in violence. Sending federal agents to help localities is not uncommon; Attorney General William Barr announced a similar surge effort in December for seven cities with spiking violence. But this effort will include at least 100 Department of Homeland Security Investigations officers who generally conduct drug trafficking and child exploitation investigations, in addition to personnel under the Justice Department umbrella.
DHS officers have already been dispatched to Portland, Oregon, and other localities to protect federal property and monuments as Trump has lambasted efforts by protesters to knock down Confederate statutes.
Local authorities there have complained that agents have exacerbated tensions on the streets, while residents have accused the government of violating their constitutional rights. Indeed, civil unrest escalated after federal agents were accused of whisking people away in unmarked cars without probable cause.
Since the racial justice protests began, Trump's campaign has leaned heavily into a pledge to maintain “law and order" as it has tried to tie Biden to a small group of radicals and anarchists it claims is trying to destabilize America’s cities and rewrite history.
The campaign believes the push can help Trump by drumming up support from suburban and older voters who may be rattled by violent images, which have been broadcast often by conservative media outlets.
In Chicago, Democratic Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who had initially blasted the news, said the U.S. attorney’s office will supervise the additional agents joining existing federal law enforcement offices.
“If those agents are here to actually work in partnership on support of gun violence and...

At the end of each week, Mike Hosking takes you through the big ticket items and lets you know what he makes of it all.
The Political Scandals.
2/10.
"They varied in terms of seriousness.
But what they have done is suck the air out of more important matters, like an economy on its knees and what to do about it."
Winston Peters.
6/10.
"Mixed week.
Made some good points about inexperience, Labour, the dangers of the Greens, and the frustrations of MMP.
But he also looked old, bitter, and down and out with the episode over David Seymour and leaks in the house."
David Seymour.
8/10.
"This is his time.
Starting with euthanasia, and backed up by an Olympic style consistency when it comes to one liners, bum outs, and picking good issues.
He is heading towards a good election."
Charging Expats for Quarantine.
6/10.
"Of course they have a right to come home.
It's their country, but it's also their bill, not ours."
Money.
7/10.
"People love it, and Reserve Banks are saying we need more.
America is looking at more, Europe this week gave more.
We are sinking in debt and not enough people seem to care, or even get it."
Plan for Airport in Tarras.
8/10.
"An airport will transform the town and the region.
It's a wonderful bit of proof that there are plenty of people planning for a new tomorrow."
Kanye West.
4/10.
"America has found three people to run for President.
Every one of them is a worry, what's that tell you about America?"
The School Holidays.
7/10.
"It gave tourism a shot, it was bigger than last year, and a lot of us got a break.
Winners all round."
Super Rugby Aotearoa.
9/10.
"Drawing crowds here, rating brilliantly in Britain, and every game is a cliffhanger.
What's not to love?"
LISTEN ABOVE FOR MIKE HOSKING'S FULL WEEK IN REVIEW

Councils have been told to loosen the regulations around housing developments under new rules released by Urban Development Minister Phil Twyford and Environment Minister David Parker.
The National Policy Statement on Urban Development aims to increase housing development in urban areas under new rules for city councils.
Cities will be split into three "tiers", under which different rules will apply.
Councils, particularly in the growing cities of Auckland, Christchurch, Wellington, Hamilton and Tauranga, will be directed to free up rules around planning decisions.
In "tier 1 cities" - the five listed above - the local Council must provide the numbers of housing they will build in the short to medium term.
The requirement for developments to provide car parks for residents will be scrapped, with developers given the choice to implement what would suit the area.
This move would drive down the cost of housing, while supporting the Government's efforts to reduce carbon emissions.
Twyford said under the new rules, city-dwellers' connections to public transport would be prioritised to better support their needs.
"We know New Zealand can create high and medium density communities with good urban design and open spaces," he said.
Poor quality and restrictive planning has stopped cities and communities from growing up and out, Twyford said.
"It has driven up the price of land and housing, and been a big driver behind the housing crisis," he said.
"When overly restrictive planning creates an artificial scarcity of land on the outskirts of our cities, or floor space because of density limits in our city centres, house prices are driven up and people are denied housing options."
Meanwhile urban ecosystems would "develop and expand in a way that makes cities more liveable" under the new policy, Parker said.
Heritage areas, the natural environment and high productive land would also be protected, he said.
Parker said an announcement would soon be made on the companion National Policy Statement for Highly Productive Land NPS-UD, which will force developers to consider other options before building on land that could be used for food and fibre production.
"The NPS-UD will sit alongside the incoming National Policy Statement on Freshwater Management 2020, recognising the importance of healthy urban waterways to a well-functioning urban environment and our most productive land," he said.
"It includes provisions to ensure that growth doesn't come at the expense of the natural environment, for example, provisions to prevent the loss of wetlands and streams, where it is avoidable."
The Policy Statement will come into effect on August 20, but councils will have some leeway to introduce the changes.