The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Could one be forgiven for wondering if the reason Iain Lees-Galloway didn’t read the Sroubek file was because he had his eye elsewhere? And we now know where. 
Could we also ask whether the Prime Minister would have sacked him so quickly, If at all, if she hadn't had a masterclass in decisiveness from Judith Collins earlier in the week? It must have been a shock to actually sack someone, as opposed to pretending nothing was wrong, or hiring yet another QC for a review.
But in a way only she could, she only sacked him as a Minister. She was leaving it to Lees-Galloway to work out whether he wanted to stay an MP. And even he could see the writing on the wall, like Clare Curran and David Clark before him. The strange habit of sacking yourself has become a "thing” with this government, hasn’t it?
So assuming this is it, can there really be anymore?
We can also make several observations. One, politics is a mugs' game. Two, as a result of it being a mugs' game, those who do want it tend to be disproportionately frail in a variety of areas. Three, it shows no signs of changing.
That is the tragedy, because we have created this absurd anomaly where by we ask so much of these people, but we ask that of them but not ourselves. Given we must never forget they are supposedly representatives of us, they are our democratic extensions, and we are as frail as they are.
There are the brilliant and the bizarre in any community. Why did we decide that once they stand for office and go to Wellington they must take on some shield of invincibility and perfection? We've done it with sportspeople. Somehow having hand-eye coordination and the ability to kick a ball also means you have to be saint like and one step short of beatification.
If you sell yourself as virtuous or above reproach, and fall, fair enough. We all remember Graham Capill.
But if you're just the person who wanted to take your community's voice to the capital but end up taping your secretary, or leaking secrets, or even getting your leg over, it's not turned out all that well, but it's hardly breaking ground that, that very community hasn’t seen many a time before.
It doesn’t make it right. But it makes it more common than we'd like to think. But somehow because we've created this fallacy around MPs, the reason they’ve dropped like flies is because we wanted them to be more than they ever really were.

The main parties had vowed they wanted a clean election. Fifty-eight days from polling day, political casualties are piling up after a Covid-19 patient leak, a sex-text scandal, a leadership resignation and an "inappropriate relationship".
And in one of a number of personal-attack sideshows, Act leader David Seymour today described NZ First leader Winston Peters as "delusional" and "nasty" after Peters accused Seymour's former partner of being involved in the leak of his superannuation details.
"Someone described him as a cornered rat," Seymour told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking today.
Seymour compared Peters with his hero, former Prime Minister Rob Muldoon, in his later years. "He's become quite delusional, nasty and ultimately sad. I think he should move on and retire with some dignity if that's possible."


Seymour says Peters' behaviour in Parliament yesterday was an abuse of privilege.
"Not so much me but to attack a number of members of the public including my former partner is an abuse of Parliamentary privilege. But it's the voters who decide who gets Parliamentary privilege and it's pretty obvious what the voters need to do to Winston Peters. And according to the polls they're already pretty set up to do it," he said.
Seymour said it would be very unlikely Peters would repeat the allegations outside the House. "I think that's all the proof you need to know he's making it up. It's pure unadulterated fantasy."
Asked by Hosking if the spat was getting personal, Seymour denied it was, before getting personal.
"I have absolutely no time or respect for the guy. He's been in Parliament for 40 years, he's left no lasting legacy and the reason for that is because it's all about him."
Asked if Seymour expected to end up in court like former National ministers Anne Tolley and Paula Bennett over the leaked superannuation information, he responded: "I certainly hope not. There's no case to answer as far as I'm concerned. Apparently 42 people knew about it and I'm not one of them."

I know it was well before Simon ever got rolled, but you may remember we predicted that the election was going to be way closer than a lot of people were saying because by the time the cold and dark and despair of July and august came around and the economy would be weighing very heavily on a lot of people’s minds.
Well Simon is gone, and so is Todd, but Judith has worked it all out.
The economy is the nuclear moment for many of us, and we might have spent a bit of time on The Warehouse these past 24 hours, but it is no different to the plight of many hundreds if not thousands of companies all over this country who have in fact gone through or will go through exactly the same thing.
Laying hundreds off is no different to laying one off if you’re that one. And the reason this will play into the way we vote is because the halcyon days of the lock down are well past, and we have moved on with the inevitable, what next scenario.
The prime minister, you will note, still talks about the pandemic, still sells it as being real and present when it isn’t.
The reason she is doing that is because they worked out scaring us was good for polling. That twee line last week about recognising that there was an election coming but really there was a pandemic to deal with was calculated because they know with Collins real opposition has arrived.
And they know historically economies swing elections and they know historically National are the party of the economy.
And as each day goes by and more and more New Zealanders have their future tipped upside down sooner or later, people are going to start asking ,where is the recovery, where is the plan, where is the growth.
Knowing that, Grant Robertson using other people’s money isn’t any sort of long term answer.
The fact we have been in level one now for a while has helped, and the government gets credit for that, but the level of artificiality about the place is still staggering and that’s coming to an end.
If The Warehouse, having taken the wage subsidy, can still lay off the numbers they are, and they’re far from the only ones, how many more join that queue come September 1st?
And how many of those jobless quite rightly ask themselves whether teddy bears in windows, closed borders and a tanked economy with no real answer outside welfare is really worth voting for.

New Zealand's egg industry is welcoming the sentence handed to a man who falsely claimed at least three-million caged eggs, were free-range.
Frank Chen was found out after a whistleblower dobbed his Gold Chick poultry farm in, to the Commerce Commission.
He's been sentenced to a year's home detention, and has paid $50,000 to the SPCA.
Michael Brooks of the Egg Producers Federation says auditing has since been brought in to safeguard honest players in the industry.
"That checks what eggs are produced on the farm, what eggs are sold.
That came in at October 2017, which was when Mr Chen's offending stopped." 
One measure that ensures eggs are sold correctly includes a stamp so people know what they're buying.
"Eggs that have a stamp on them, say 'FR123' for example, you can go to a website called 'Trace My Egg' that we've set up." 

Xue (Frank) Chen, the owner of a West Auckland chicken farm, was sentenced to home detention yesterday over a free-range egg fraud. Photo / Dean Purcell

New Zealand's squeaky clean image means some exports are in top demand.
Exports of dairy, meat and horticulture for the year so far are up nearly a $1 billion on the same time last year.
The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research says the high demand is down to flexible supply chains and trust in the hygiene of our food processing.
Principal economist Chris Nixon told Mike Hosking one fruit has been a stand-out success.
"You look at gold kiwifruit, high productivity on orchards, good demand in Asia, less so for green." 
However, he says that although it's great news, the surge doesn't cover all industries.
"Other exports are down, so we need to think about forestry and other manufacturing are down, so we're running about even."

The extraordinary impact of the coronavirus crisis on Australia’s finances will be revealed by the government in stark detail tomorrow, and the country has been warned to expect it to be “eye-watering”.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will provide an update on spending, which is being referred to as a ‘mini Budget’ but will be more of a confirmation of the sheer cost of responding to the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Speaking on several morning television and radio programs today, Mr Frydenberg repeatedly described the fiscal situation as “eye-watering”, with a debt and deficit situation unlike anything the country has seen before.
“That‘s the harsh reality of this pandemic,” he told Channel 9’s Today program. “The coronavirus has required the government to spend unprecedented amounts of money to support people in need.
“I don‘t think we have seen uncertainty like this in a global and indeed a national economy in living memory.”
On the JobKeeper wage subsidy alone – which the government yesterday extended past its original expiry date of September, albeit at a reduced rate and with stricter eligibility criteria – is currently costing $11 billion a month.
“That is unsustainable if we kept that program going indefinitely,” Mr Frydenberg said.
Over on ABC News Breakfast, he said the rate at which the government is increasing debt is “very substantial” and repeated his description of tomorrow’s update as “eye-watering”.
There has been much speculation about exactly what tomorrow will reveal, with some commentary estimating the deficit for this year will hit a staggering $200 billion.
Support measures already committed have totalled $260 billion – more than 13 per cent of Australia’s GDP.
Yesterday’s extension of JobKeeper until next March, as well as the JobSeeker coronavirus supplement until December, will cost an extra $20 billion.
“Every dollar we spend is a borrowed dollar, and that’s why it will take some time to pay back the debt,” Mr Frydenberg told ABC News Breakfast.
He added that Australia’s revenue has also taken a “big hit” due to the coronavirus crisis.
“It‘s going to be eye-watering, the deficits released on Thursday, and the amount of debt, remembering the debt was already at record highs before the coronavirus,” Labor’s treasury spokesman Jim Chalmers said on Sky News yesterday, borrowing the government’s phrasing.
“ It’s important that we get a proper, comprehensive update on Thursday, not another marketing exercise. It’s very troubling to hear that the government is talking about releasing half an update of two years rather than four.
“Australians deserve to know how deep the government thinks this recession will be, how long unemployment will be higher than is ideal, and how much debt has been piled up throughout this period.”

Prime Minister Scott Morrison was on 2GB Radio in Sydney this morning and agreed with Mr Frydenberg’s assessment of the “eye-watering” state of the books.

“Tomorrow is about reconciling the books for last year and this year in terms of all the commitments that have been made,” Mr Morrison explained.
“So it‘s to be transparent with people about what the cost is. This has been the single largest economic impact that the government has had to face since the Second World War.”

A long-awaited report on Russian meddling in British politics criticised the U.K. government for failing to investigate whether Moscow interfered in the 2016 Brexit referendum, with the document’s authors describing the lack of curiosity about this threat to democracy as a major failure at the heart of power.
The report from Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee also painted a damning portrait of Russian involvement in British society more generally, including attempts to influence government policy by wealthy Russians with ties to President Vladimir Putin and the British financiers who help them.
Stewart Hosie, a committee member and member of Parliament for the opposition Scottish National Party, accused the government of ``actively avoiding″ allegations of Russian meddling, which he said was unforgivable after evidence emerged that Moscow had interfered with the Scottish independence referendum in 2014 and the U.S. presidential election two years later. The panel called for the government to appoint a commission to look into the issue and report back to the public.
“There has been no assessment of Russian interference in the EU referendum and this goes back to nobody wanting to touch the issue with a 10-foot pole,″ Hosie said during a press conference after the report was delivered to Parliament.
The government stalled publication of the report for more than seven months, with the main opposition Labour Party suggesting that Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative Party were trying to avoid further questions about links between Russia and the pro-Brexit campaign. Johnson helped lead the campaign for Britain to leave the European Union and has made delivering Brexit his primary goal since he became prime minister last July.
Committee members said Russia’s goal in seeking to influence elections was to amplify existing divisions, and thus destabilize Western political systems. While the report said it would be “difficult — if not impossible — to prove” whether Russian meddling influenced the result of the EU referendum, it was clear that the government “was slow to recognize the existence of the threat.”
The report concludes that Russia sees Britain as one of its top intelligence targets, adding that Moscow’s attempts to influence the U.K. are the “new normal” and successive governments have welcomed Russian oligarchs with open arms. Russians with “very close links” to Putin are “well integrated into the U.K. business, political and social scene — in ‘Londongrad’ in particular,” the report said.
In a 20-page response, the government denied that it had “badly underestimated” the Russian threat and rejected the call for a commission to investigate alleged Russian meddling during the Brexit referendum.
“We have seen no evidence of successful interference in the EU Referendum,” the statement said.
But it may prove difficult for Johnson to avoid a further inquiry because the committee’s recommendation is non-partisan and has the weight of Parliament behind it, according to Nigel Gould-Davies, senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
``This is a national security issue,″ he said. ``The report is very clear that it’s probably impossible to assess whether Russian operations made a difference or not. But I think everyone with a concern about British national security can share the view that it’s important to understand the extent and seriousness of that attempt in order, among other things, to make sure that such attempts are not successful in the future.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova dismissed the committee’s findings, calling them “Russophobia.”
The report’s authors said they were subjected to unprecedented delays in making the document public, with officials stalling its release for more than seven months after it was first submitted to Johnson on Oct 17. The committee didn’t...

President Donald Trump warned on Tuesday that the “nasty horrible’” coronavirus will get worse in the U.S. before it gets better, but he also tried to paint a rosy picture of efforts with governors to conquer the disease that has claimed more than 140,000 American lives in just five months.
He also professed a newfound respect for the protective face masks he has seldom worn. He pulled one from his pocket in the White House briefing room but didn't put it on.
After a three-month hiatus from his freewheeling daily virus briefings, Trump returned to the podium, keeping the stage to himself without the public health experts who were staples of his previous events but keeping close to scripted remarks prepared by aides.
Besides declaring support for masks as a way to fight the pandemic, he admonished young people against crowding bars and spreading the disease.
It all marked a delayed recognition by Trump that the economic reopening he's been championing since April — and more importantly, his reelection — were imperiled by spiking cases nationwide.
There were no guarantees how long Trump's more measured tone, delivered with an eye to halting a campaign-season erosion of support, would last. Along the way on Tuesday, the president still worked in jabs at the news media and Democrats for focusing on disease-fighting shortcomings in the U.S. as the rest of world also struggles with the virus. He also belatedly addressed bipartisan criticism of virus-testing delays that have hampered reopening plans.
“It will probably unfortunately get worse before it gets better,” Trump said from the White House. But he also touted a reduction in deaths and progress on vaccines and treatments for COVID-19, which he referred to repeatedly as a the “China virus.” He continued his recent encouragement of Americans to wear masks when social distancing is not possible.
“Whether you like the mask or not, they have an impact," he said. "I’m getting used to the mask,” he added, pulling one out after months of suggesting that mask-wearing was a political statement against him.
Swaths of the country are now battling rising infections and growing deaths, and some states are once again having to close businesses and rethink school in the fall. Many retailers themselves are insisting their customers don masks.
For months, the nation’s top health experts have pleaded with Americans to wear masks in public and steer clear of crowds -- calling those simple steps life-saving -- even as the president’s stance fueled a partisan social divide.
The early evening show at the White House came as the next stage of the federal government’s response to the pandemic was being crafted on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers and White House officials were opening negotiations on a trillion-dollar-or-more “phase four” rescue package.
For weeks, White House aides have pressed Trump to grow more disciplined in his public statements about the pandemic. On Tuesday, he steered clear of what has been a favored talking point: that widespread testing for the virus in the U.S. “created” more cases, as aides noted that was false and projected a lack of responsibility.
Little more than three months from Election Day, Trump and his political team hoped that the podium spotlight would give him an edge against Democratic rival Joe Biden.
“The vaccines are coming, and they're coming a lot sooner than anybody thought possible,” Trump promised anew.
As early as next week, the first possible U.S. vaccine is set to begin final-stage testing in a study of 30,000 people to see if it really is safe and effective. A few other vaccines have begun smaller late-stage studies in other countries, and in the U.S. a series of huge studies are planned to start each month through fall in hopes of, eventually, having several vaccines to use. Already, people can start signing up to volunteer for the different studies.
Health authorities warn...

More than $300 million of Government funding is being put towards protecting Kiwi health during the pandemic.
Health Minister Chris Hipkins says the investment will strengthen the country's capacity to respond to the virus.
Hipkins said that the Covid pandemic had hit global supply chains and made medicines more expensive."With the virus now spreading faster than ever, it's clear that disruption to supply chains will continue and more investment is needed," Hipkins said.
The Government is allocating $74 million to Pharmac for this year and $76 million in 2021/22 so it can continue to afford the medicines that New Zealanders need.
The money is coming out of the $50 billion Covid Response and Recovery Fund.
Further health funding has also been approved to support contact-tracing, the roll-out of a future vaccine, and higher demand for telehealth services.
In total the $302.6m is spread across:
• $150 million (over two years) for Pharmac
• $30 million in the National Close Contact Service, which supports contact-tracing, information technology and development of the Tracer app
• $23 million for a National Immunisation Solution to support the rollout of a vaccine, whenever it is ready
• $35 million for more ventilators and respiratory equipment
• $50 million for PPE supplies
• $14.6 million for telehealth services
"We can't afford to wait for a vaccine to be available," Hipkins said."We need to start work now to replace the current National Immunisation Register, which simply could not cope with the scale and complexity of a mass Covid-19 vaccination campaign.
"All these investments are designed to further build our ability to respond to the global pandemic now and into the future."

You want some numbers? $16 million. That's what we have paid on consultants when its come to Covid. Ah, the old consultant.
Some got $400 an hour, so $3200 a day. But what's remarkable about the new numbers is that of the $16 million, about $15 million went on spin.
They use other words in the industry like "marketing" and "communications." But essentially all the hype you heard from Queen Cindy, the likes of "the team of five million,"  "the stay safe stay home," the "be kind," we paid for that and it came from advertising agencies. One got $3 million, another got $12 million.
You astonished? Extraordinary, isn't it? It shows, as I pointed out many, many times without the benefit of knowing the numbers, just how much we got played by a government that was as desperate to score points on this as it was to actually address a health crisis.
Those ridiculous rules during lockdown. Supermarkets were fine, but butchers weren't. You could walk, but only locally. What was local? You could surf, but only if you'd done it  before. It will go down in history as one of the most made up, on the spot, nonsensical list of instructions ever.
What was remarkable was how many of us acquiesced, without a single question as to why. In fact some of us were hypnotised into a soporific sort of state where we ended up taking instructions from the head spin master Ardern about putting stuffed animals in windows.
The only thing that didn’t go to plan was the "be kind," because we weren't. We dobbed people in left, right, and centre.
And unfortunately that was driven by the Prime Minister who forgot her be kind message by issuing yet more pointless instructions on what number to ring, or e-mail, to spring recalcitrants who had wandered a bit far from their front door, or weren't carrying measuring tapes for their social distancing.
Is communication important? Of course. But do you need to pay $16 million for it? No. Which is what makes this so egregious.
This wasn’t simple instruction that any government or group or person can come up with, this was  clearly a highly planned, seriously worked over piece of strategy designed for maximum political impact.
And the irony is, from the advertising agencies point of view, it worked. We got sucked in, followed orders and came out hailing the Prime Minister with a 59 percent share in a poll.
Value for money then? Or a master piece of fantastically expensive spin?
Again, we were played like a fiddle.