The Mike Hosking Breakfast

New Zealand Rugby boss Steve Lancaster's preparing for difficult conversations with provincial unions and Super teams in the five major centres. 

Operations in Auckland, Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch, and Dunedin will be consolidated as part of a drive to reduce costs and increase efficiency by 2028. 

Lancaster has acknowledged the decisions will rankle. 

He told Mike Hosking change is always challenging, and it always creates a level of angst.  

Lancaster also rejects the perception they're taking the easy option, saying the changes will be below the surface in terms of how the competition is delivered, the entities that deliver them, and how they can put more focus on promoting and marketing. 

He told Hosking that's why they want to create a dedicated office to run Super Rugby, as opposed to it simply being a function that resides within NZ Rugby and Rugby Australia respectively.  

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An economist warns fixing the supermarket sector is much more complicated than breaking up the big players. 

The Institute of Economic Research says the move could increase competition but will also be expensive and inefficient for purchasing and distribution.  

It wants barriers addressed like limited wholesale access, purchasing advantages for current players, and trouble securing retail sites.  

Institute senior economist Susie McKenzie told Mike Hosking limited wholesale access is an unresolved barrier. 

She says we need to understand why existing reforms haven't made a difference and aren't giving better access. 

McKenzie told Hosking all our political parties are just suggesting different solutions to different problems. 

She says from the supermarket challenge is very complicated and there's no simple solution. 

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Gold medal for Kelly Eckhold at Westpac. 

He called it, or at least suggested the hold we saw from the Reserve Bank wasn't as "home run" as many might have predicted. 

This, in a dry, old world of monetary policy, is little short of a blockbuster. 

I guess you could argue the 4-3 vote is a good indication of the wider view. 

The economy is far from firing. It's far from needing to be contained. So why hike? 

Well, because we have inflation above the target. The Bank's job is to keep inflation within the target. Technically, they are failing in that job. 

The dollar fell, which, like all economic matters, is good and bad. Fantastic for exporters. No good for the importers, and we do a lot of importing, including things like petrol. 

The hold argument is also about the reality of what you are achieving by holding. 

Does oil drop? Do rates drop? No, they don't. 

Do you squeeze already pressured budgets? Yes, you do. 

Part of their argument, perhaps the most fascinating part, is that they don't see price pressure. The person in the middle is soaking up the increased cost and not passing it on to the customer. 

Food might be a good example. At 1.9%, it's well contained. 

Maybe there is a bit of that about the place. We have reached the point where the retailer would like to sell for more, but the buyer just won't have it. So it's either the current price or no sale. 

Of course, it ain't over. The RB will be back in December. Surely a move is on by then and you'd probably argue we might be looking at one next year. 

But how useful is the publishing of the vote, the names and how they voted? That's transparency and that's thanks to the new Government who, by the way, voted to hold. 

Side note; she appears, once again, to be a material improvement on her predecessor in her understanding of the economy. 

The politics? I don't think there are any. It saves the Government another round of explanations about recovery and war, but I think most thinking people get it anyway. 

But for the battler, the middle New Zealander, the person who just wanted a brief break in the onslaught on the way to better days, the RB surprised many and came to the party. 

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Andy Burnham's Government has released its first budget.  

UK Chancellor John Healey set out their latest tax and spending measures, saying it's a budget built on fiscal discipline, for the working people of Britain. 

Economic growth is forecast at 1.2% this year, and remains under 2% right up to 2031. 

UK Correspondent Enda Brady agreed growth is anaemic, but told Mike Hosking the whole of Europe is having similar problems. 

He says the plan off the back of this budget seems to be getting people through winter. 

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Promising signs for small businesses, even in a shaky economy. 

A Xero Small Business Insights report shows sales rose 5.6% year-on-year in the September quarter. 

New Zealand out-performed all four other countries Xero tracks, with sales growth ahead of Australia, the UK, the US, and Canada. 

Xero Country Manager Bridget Snelling told Mike Hosking they'd like to see this momentum continuing into the next quarter, especially since we're heading into the busy festive period.  

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On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 29th of October, Reserve Bank Governor Dr Anna Breman explains why they decided to hold the Official Cash Rate. 

We go to Israel as their "pivotal" election hangs in the balance, with the question now being who will blink first and join up with the Arab parties to get the majority. 

It's the so-called "minor party" leaders show this morning, so Chlöe Swarbrick, David Seymour, and Winston Peters joined to give the lay of the land. 

Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. 

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Winston Peters says the 2026 election campaign is one of the worst he's ever seen. 

The New Zealand First Leader told Mike Hosking on the Leaders Breakfast people are sick and tired of it – the pettiness, the diversion, the misleading representation. 

He says if you ask people in the audience, as he did at public meeting in the Hutt Valley last night, if they're sick and tired of it, they all put their hands up. 

The party is also taking its campaign directly to the people, with Winston Peters arguing packed-out town halls are the best poll there is. 

NZ First's been drawing big crowds around the country in recent months, taking a different approach to many of its rivals. 

Peters told Hosking the mainstream media has dramatically changed, and claims it now takes sides politically in the worst way he's seen. 

He says there's only social media, or the old fashion way of meeting locals, to fight that. 

Peters expressed frustration New Zealand wasn’t an export “powerhouse”. Challenged on the relative success of New Zealand’s exports, Peters argued the country should be more successful and reinforced the need to double the value of exports in the next decade. 

Asked for his proudest moments of the last term, Peters referred to retaining provincial investment, getting rid of “woke legislation” and increasing New Zealand’s respect on the world stage through his efforts as Foreign Affairs Minister. 

On another round of potential negotiations with National and ACT, Peters expected they would progress more smoothly than in 2023 as the two party leaders had experience in Cabinet. 

He reinforced the party’s policies designed to retain workers and businesses in New Zealand as opposed to losing them to Australia, noting his proposal to cut the corporate tax rate for small businesses would see a “galvanising of business”. 

Peters again declared the Waitangi Tribunal would be scrapped within three months of the next government forming, which he believed was supported by a “significant proportion of the coalition” despite National being of the view that the tribunal had a role to play. 

He emphasised the need for National supporters to split their vote by voting for a National candidate but giving their party vote to NZ First or ACT, saying that approach would make it more likely the coalition could be re-elected. 

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Israel's future governance is still up in the air, with parties on all sides falling short of the required 61 seats.  

With most votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu's holding a narrow lead over rival Gadi Eisenkot, with 53 seats to 48. 

The Arab parties have surged to a record 19.  

ABC News Middle East correspondent Matthew Doran told Mike Hosking we could see parties from either bloc break away to form a coalition.  

He says there's already speculation of Netanyahu trying to form a unity government with Eisenkot, who's campaigned for most of the year for him to go. 

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ACT Leader David Seymour is cautiously confident the coalition could have speedier post-election negotiations this year, compared to 2023.  

National, ACT, and New Zealand First took 40-days to strike a deal after the last election.  

Both the Leaders of National and Labour have promised to try to finish negotiations by Christmas, but no firm promises have been made.  

Seymour told Mike Hosking on the Leaders Breakfast he can't speak for his colleagues in NZ First or National, but they have experience on side this time.  

He says himself and the other party leaders all know each other and have worked together. 

Seymour acknowledged compromise is necessary but says their proposal to remove tax from KiwiSaver is an important aspect of their policy platform. 

He also made it clear though that proposals by potential partners for compulsory KiwiSaver are a "non-starter". 

He didn’t express regret when asked about the level of reform the Government had been unable to progress, again pointing to the need for compromise. 

When asked if this morning’s RNZ Reid Research poll putting National below 25% was an outlier, Seymour didn’t provide a direct answer although noted Reid Research in 2023 had National lower than what it ended up on election night. 

Seymour argued ACT had “come of age as a party”, lauding the efforts of his ministers in Government. 

He believed ACT candidate James Christmas would win the Tamaki seat and likened National’s current candidate to Simon O’Connor, who lost the long-time National seat to Brooke van Velden in 2023. 

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The Reserve Bank is keeping a close eye on several factors as it weighs up whether to hike the Official Cash Rate before Christmas. 

The Monetary Policy Committee voted, four votes to three, to hold the cash rate yesterday. 

The shock decision has had an immediate impact on exchange rates, with the already weak Kiwi dollar seeing its biggest drop against the Aussie in almost a decade. 

Governor Anna Breman told Mike Hosking they're monitoring both weak household consumption here at home and uncertainty abroad. 

She says the geopolitical tensions are high, fuel prices are volatile, many countries have high debt levels, France is facing widespread protests, and there are risks from the AI investment boom. 

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