The Mike Hosking Breakfast

Greens Co-Leader Chlöe Swarbrick believes any dip in the polls as a result of the party’s association with gangs would have already been seen, but argues voters are more interested on other issues. 

Two polls this week show the Green Party holding its 14-16% vote share of recent months. The polling period of both polls captured in its final days the saga concerning last week’s resignation of Labour candidate Kerrin Leoni for campaigning at a gang event, which came after MPs from Te Pāti Māori and the Greens did the same. 

Swarbrick told Mike Hosking on the Leaders Breakfast she would have expected any impact to have been seen in polls this week, and believes voters were more interested in issues such as the cost of living. 

Asked about Labour leader Chris Hipkins ruling out many Green Party tax reform policies and ruling out giving the party some ministerial positions, Swarbrick insisted the relationship between the two parties was good and “collaborative”, noting she and co-leader Marama Davidson had regular conversations. 

However, she acknowledged the declining “direction of travel” for the two major parties, which she believed made the rule-in, rule-out conventions nonsensical. 

Swarbrick didn’t provide a clear answer when questioned on what her party might be able to secure in coalition negotiations regarding tax reform. Labour has promised no new taxes aside from its capital gains tax, whereas the Greens have proposed extensive tax reform, headlined by a wealth tax. While she encouraged people to vote for what they wanted, Swarbrick said, “of course we’re going to compromise". 

Swarbrick appeared confident her party would retain the three electorate seats it won in 2023, but also felt it likely the Greens would win Te Tai Tokerau and Christchurch Central, which was a long-time Labour seat. 

On Opportunity, Swarbrick wasn’t sure how much of the Greens vote had been lost to Qiulae Wong, saying the party’s support seem to be “flowing in from everywhere”, reiterating how Opportunity could support the current governing parties and how it wasn’t a guaranteed vote to change the Government. 

She observed that voters were “exhausted” and sick of the “tit-for-tat nonsense”. 

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The figures keep defying the reality. 

68,000 votes were cast on Monday. 

That day was a problem according to the conspiracy theorists who suggested that not only had enrolling closed early, but the opening day of voting was a public holiday and for some reason voting on a day off may prove to be some sort of issue. 

At 68,000, that is more than in 2023. So what does that mean? Nothing. 

But you could suggest it's an early turnout, which means a bigger turnout by the time this is over. A bigger turnout would be welcome because we should all be interested in democracy and, more importantly, actually participating in democracy. 

It's one thing to enrol, and here is the real story that the conspiracy theorists might like to spend more energy on: enrolment is not as important as turnout. 

Being on a roll isn't as important as actually voting. 

Last time only 77% turned out. That’s not great. You need to well and truly crack 80% for a good day at the office. 

The conspiracy folk need to be careful because when this washes out, they run the risk of looking like nutters. 

Trevor Mallard mouthing off on social media about his hall being closed, then banging on about voter suppression, had 'tin hat' written all over it, not to mention his inability to google a polling place that was open. 

My guess, if you want one, is an early flourish of voting indicates my long-held suspicion that this is one of your more predictable elections. 

This is a bloc election. The bloc that runs the place deserves three more years, or not. 

There are not actually a lot of game-changing policies. There is a lot of small policy designed to get daily clicks from the media. 

I'm convinced the vast majority of us know who we are voting for and have known for some time, so day one was a chance to tick a box and get on with life. 

My great hope is it continues, turn out is high, the Mallard's and tin hatters get back to their Telegram feeds and if the left lose, they don’t use it as an excuse. 

Because that would be what a sore loser would do. 

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On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 28th of October, we look at what the Reserve Bank is likely to do with the OCR today and how it might affect an election campaign. 

The Prime Minister pops in after the long weekend to talk early voting numbers, alleged voter suppression, and what the polls are saying. 

And on Politics Wednesday, Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell talk their electorates, the Fire and Emergency CEO's resignation and the confusion around whether Rakesh Naidoo is under investigation or not. 

Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. 

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It's Politics Wednesday, which means Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen are back with Mike Hosking to dig into the biggest stories of the week thus far. 

With the election just under two weeks away, they discussed how things are faring in their electorates and the ongoing drama around voter registrations. 

They also touched on the situation around Rakesh Naidoo and the resignation of Fire and Emergency's CEO. 

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The Reserve Bank could have its hands full over the next few months, with inflation still stuck at elevated levels.  

Economists are predicting the Monetary Policy Committee will lift the official cash rate by 25 basis points at 2pm today.  

This would take it to 3%.  

ASB's Kim Mundy told Mike Hosking we could see further hikes in December and February. 

She says the Reserve Bank needs to get settings back to neutral levels sooner rather than later, because we're seeing signs that inflation's starting to stir. 

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Amidst an already bad time for airlines, an analyst says Air New Zealand faces a unique set of challenges. 

Forsyth Barr expects the airline to lose $338 million before tax this financial year. 

Its passenger revenue is up 12% year-on-year, but fuel is costing it about $6.8 million a day. 

Forsyth Barr Head of Research Andy Bowley told Mike Hosking engine issues is one challenge, with another being sales. 

He says Kiwis make up half of their sales, and we've been in and out of recession for the last three years. 

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Some say it's too hot, others too cold – a challenge for the operator of Christchurch's new covered stadium. 

Some areas of One NZ Stadium reached 32 degrees during Sunday's Rugby League matches and Monday's NPC final. 

Daytime fixtures could be scrapped in future to help players and fans cope with the heat. 

Venues Otautahi Chief Executive Caroline Harvie-Teare told Mike Hosking the stadium bowl is also retaining heat on colder days, with a 4.5 degree temperature variation around the venue on Monday. 

She says it's the variation which is the issue, with some complaining it was too cold at the weekend. 

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National's Christopher Luxon says it's great to see so many people already showing up to vote.  

Nearly 70 thousand people cast their ballots on day one of advance voting.  

That's slightly more than the same time at the last election.  

Luxon told Mike Hosking he's hoping that's a sign people are going to give his government another crack.  

He says people understand it's been a difficult three years, but that his plan just needs more time as it's starting to work.  

When it comes to the economy, the Prime Minister's blaming the conflict in the Middle East for headline inflation remaining stubbornly high.  

Economists are predicting the Reserve Bank's will lift the OCR by 25 basis points this afternoon, taking it to 3%.  

Inflation's running at 3.7%, outside the target band of 1–3%.  

Luxon told Hosking the war's pushed up oil prices around the world, and how you respond to it matters – you can't just get the money hose and spray cash around. 

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The Wellington City Missioner says Labour's rent-to-own scheme could help more people own a home. 

The party wants $100 of Kainga Ora tenants' weekly rent put towards a home deposit. 

Labour would also expand eligibility for 5% home deposits by increasing the income threshold to $300,000. 

Wellington City Missioner Murray Edridge told Mike Hosking this could help make people's dreams of owning a home a reality. 

He says the issue for a lot of people isn't the amount of repayment whether it's rent or a mortgage, it's getting a deposit. 

Edridge told Hosking these types of schemes have worked in the past. 

He says his parents along with many other built their homes by capitalising their family benefit. 

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What do they say about the truth always coming out? 

By Friday morning Kerrin Leoni was gone. 

She lied and she got caught with the photo and the video. Not only didn’t it pass the pub test, it didn’t pass the truth test. 

Campaigns almost always have things in them you never saw coming. For Labour it was a combination of dishonesty and their past. 

Law and order was not part of the vote of 2026, until it was. 

It was very much a part of 2023 because Labour was perceived to have failed abysmally on the subject. 

Law and order was, if not the number one issue, certainly in the top three and a major part of the law-and-order story was the perceived weakness Labour had around gangs. 

They ruled the streets, they paraded the patches, they sold the drugs and they abused the women. 

Labour opposed the new Government's gang patch ban, until they didn’t. 

Labour has been hoisted by their own petard.   

This started as a Greens/Māori Party mess that infected a third party. The initial issue was reputational. 

Could Labour be seen to be alongside a couple of radical operators in the gang space? An embattled Chris Hipkins did his best by saying none of their people would hold justice/police, or law-type portfolios. 

Then he said funding gangs was wrong. Then when asked why his party had funded the Mongrel Mob, he said it was a mistake and, in doing so, threw his former leader under the bus. 

It was a miserable ten days and a story that he couldn’t shake. But then it got worse, disastrously worse, after one of his own turned out not only to hang with gangs and campaign with gangs, but then when sprung, lied. 

The only thing he can do now is hope this fades, which it will. But what won't fade is the simple truth that all three parties in the left bloc now, in some way, shape or form, associate with the gang culture, like and support the gang culture, or are not averse to funding the gang culture. 

All three share the same broad ideology towards gangs. 

Given that it makes them so far removed from middle New Zealand, it's fatal. Other issues could be forgiven or looked past, but gangs are in a league of their own. 

Criminality and dishonesty might have been the singular event that caught all three. 

And blew it for all three. 

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