The Missing Middle Podcast

Canada’s trade relationship with the United States is facing major challenges. In this replay of a live episode recorded on Friday August 28, Mike Moffatt and Cara Stern break down Canada’s trade war with the U.S., the impact of tariffs, and what it all means for the Canadian economy.

They explore how tariffs and trade tensions could affect Canadian jobs, businesses, inflation, housing, taxation, financial markets, and economic stability while answering questions directly from the live audience.

Whether you’re a policymaker, investor, business owner, or simply trying to understand what’s happening to Canada’s economy, this conversation offers context and analysis on some of the biggest economic issues facing Canadians today.

In this episode:

• Canada’s trade war and economic relationship with the U.S.
• The impact of tariffs on the Canadian economy
• How trade uncertainty could affect housing and affordability
• Taxation and government policy
• Financial markets and economic stability
• What tariffs could mean for Canadian businesses and consumers
• Live audience questions and answers
• What Canadians should be watching as trade tensions evolve

Watch the full conversation for an in-depth discussion of Canada’s economic outlook and the challenges ahead.

#Canada #CanadianEconomy #Tariffs #TradeWar #USCanada #CanadianPolitics #Housing #Economy #Inflation #MikeMoffatt #CaraStern

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction to the Trade Dispute

02:12 Tariffs and the New NAFTA

04:23 Labeling, Language, and Trade Strategy

06:40 Canada's Trade Diversification Challenges

08:36 Taxing the Wealthy and Intergenerational Equity

12:30 Interprovincial Trade Barriers and Alcohol

16:38 Impacts on Housing and Construction

23:57 US Bonds and Canadian Investment

36:12 Bank of Canada and Interest Rate Policy

42:17 Government Support for Small Housing

44:37 Development Charges and Urban Planning

46:21 Closing Remarks and Next Steps

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Ever wonder why it's nearly impossible to find a brand-new, modest starter home? In this episode of Classonomics, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt break down the real-world housing economics driving the extinction of small detached homes across Canada and why developers are practically forced to build McMansions instead.

From flat municipal fees to setback regulations and astronomical land costs, we run through the numbers we explain why smaller homes no longer make financial sense for builders, and what policy changes could actually fix it.

• The disappearance of homes under 1,500 square feet
• Serviced land pricing and lot width economics
• How flat municipal development fees penalize small builds
• Setback rules and wasted building space
• Construction economies of scale
• Fixed overhead and pre-construction costs
• Policy solutions to bring back missing middle housing

Chapters:

00:00 Small Detached Homes Are Disappearing

02:02 Why Developers Don’t Build Smaller Homes

03:01 The Real Cost of Building a Small Home

05:27 Why Land Costs Favour Bigger Houses

07:43 How Lot Rules Make Small Homes Harder to Build

09:33 How to Bring Down the Cost of Land

10:12 Development Charges Favour Bigger Homes

13:39 Why Bigger Homes Have Lower Construction Costs

16:15 The Costs That Don’t Shrink With the House

17:47 Why a $600K Home Costs So Much

Research:

https://pub-ottawa.escribemeetings.com/filestream.ashx?DocumentId=311483 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Fertility treatment is becoming increasingly common in Canada. But why?

On this episode of DemograFix, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt dig into the dramatic rise of IVF and fertility treatment in Canada, and what it tells us about how Canadians are building families.

IVF births in Ontario have nearly doubled as a share of all live births since 2014, while the average age of patients starting IVF has climbed past 35. As Canadians spend longer in school, establish careers later, face higher housing and living costs, and delay parenthood, more people are turning to fertility treatment to help build the families they want.

But access to fertility care can depend heavily on where you live. Cara and Mike look at the geographic lottery of fertility treatment, differences in provincial funding, long waitlists, workplace benefits, and the often-overlooked costs of IVF, including time away from work and travel for treatment.

The bigger question is what happens when more Canadians are trying to have children later in life.

Is Canada's fertility system prepared for growing demand? And should policymakers be looking beyond IVF to the housing, career and economic pressures that are pushing parenthood later?

#IVF #Fertility #Canada #Demographics #FertilityTreatment #Ontario

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:42 The Economic Reality of Delayed Parenthood

01:28 Why is Fertility Treatment Usage Up?

02:44 Biology and Success Rates

03:08 Analyzing the Data Surge

04:16 The Geographic Lottery of Fertility Access

05:22 The Biological Realities

06:41 The Myth of Fertility Control

07:44 Rising Complications in Younger Patients

08:27 Male Factor Infertility

08:42 The High Cost of Treatment and Waitlists

10:03 The Hidden Costs (Time & Travel)

11:34 Workplace Benefits and Trends

12:01 Recap and Future Outlook

13:01 Policy Responses and Root Causes

Research/links:

Publicly funded in-vitro fertilization (IVF) program - Province of British Columbia 

Canadian assisted reproductive technologies registry CARTR PLUs annual report 

CARTR Reports - Canadian Fertility & Andrology Society 

Provincial coverage | Fertility Matters Canada 

https://news.ontario.ca/en/release/1007375/ontario-connecting-more-families-to-fertility-supports

https://www.zionmarketresearch.com/report/in-vitro-fertilization-market

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Are Canada’s politics becoming less about left versus right and more about young versus old?

In this episode of Classonomics, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux explore the growing generational divide in Canadian politics and what it means for the economy, housing, and the future of democracy. They examine why older voters may prioritize inflation, pensions, and asset prices, while younger Canadians increasingly feel shut out of homeownership, economic growth, and traditional institutions.

Topics covered:

• The growing age divide in Canadian politics
• Why seniors and younger voters have different economic priorities
• “Pocketbook” versus “sociotropic” voting
• Economic growth and the distribution of wealth
• Old Age Security and the politics of an aging population
• Housing prices, homeownership, and generational inequality
• Why young Canadians feel increasingly disconnected from the economy
• Populism, political radicalization, and distrust in institutions
• Brexit and the backlash against economic elites
• Why making the economy work for younger Canadians matters for the future

#Canada #CanadianPolitics #HousingCrisis #GenerationalDivide #Economy #Politics #HousingAffordability #Millennials #GenZ #MissingMiddle

Chapters:

00:00 — Is Age Breaking Our Politics?

03:26 — The Generational Divide Is Reshaping Politics

06:22 — Why Voters Are Choosing Their Own Wallets Over Growth

10:14 — Why Older and Younger Voters Want Different Things

13:17 — Why Politicians Want to Keep Home Prices High

16:08 — Why Young People Are Losing Faith in the System

17:26 — How Economic Frustration Fuels Populism

20:33 — Why Young Voters Are Turning to Extremes

21:03 — How to Make the Economy Work for Young People

Research:

Beer question: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beer_question 

Vlandas study: https://muse.jhu.edu/article/980470 

German research: https://www.kielinstitut.de/publications/kiel-focus/the-economic-consequences-of-populism/ 

Tobi Lutke’s idea that pensioners be excluded from voting is offensive. The concern behind it isn’t

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/authors/mike-moffatt/ 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Canada needs more housing, but building in existing neighbourhoods often faces strong local opposition. Could gentle density be a solution?

In this episode of DemograFix, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt discuss how infill housing, form-based zoning, and streamlined regulations could help Canada build more family-friendly homes while balancing concerns about neighbourhood character, infrastructure, parking, and density. They also examine multiplex debates in Toronto and Calgary, and whether zoning reform and condo rules are limiting new homeownership opportunities.

Topics covered:

• What is gentle density?
• Why Canada needs more family-friendly housing
• The fight over multiplexes and infill housing
• Toronto's sixplex debate
• Calgary's citywide upzoning rollback
• Form-based zoning explained
• Zoning vs. building code
• How standardized zoning could reduce red tape
• Parking, infrastructure, and neighbourhood concerns
• Creating more homeownership opportunities through gentle density
• Condo regulations and small-scale housing
• British Columbia's small-scale, multi-unit housing approach
• What Oregon is doing differently
• Should gentle density start with greenfield development?
• Can gentle density overcome NIMBY and YIMBY opposition?

Chapters:

00:00 – Canada’s Housing Problem and the Case for Gentle Density

01:25 – The Three Ways Cities Can Build More Housing

03:00 – Why Multiplexes Face Local Opposition

04:35 – Toronto’s Controversial Station Road Eightplex

06:15 – Calgary’s Upzoning Rollback

07:30 – What Is Gentle Density?

08:20 – Objection #1: Buildings Are Too Tall

09:35 – Form-Based Zoning Explained

11:05 – Zoning vs. Building Codes

12:15 – Objection #2: Buildings Are Too Large

13:05 – Objection #3: Parking and Infrastructure

14:25 – Can Gentle Density Benefit Existing Homeowners?

16:10 – Tiny Homes and Pocket Neighbourhoods

17:25 – Does Density Mean More Rental Housing?

19:00 – Making Small-Scale Homeownership Easier

20:25 – What Canada Can Learn From B.C. and Oregon

21:45 – Where Should Gentle Density Start?

23:00 – Can Gentle Density Actually Get Political Support?

24:15 – NIMBYs vs. YIMBYs: Is Gentle Density Too Mild?

25:00 – Moving Beyond Arbitrary Unit Counts

Research/links:

MMI Gentle Density Report: https://www.missingmiddleinitiative.ca/p/from-policy-gridlock-to-housing-growth 

NIMBYs will Fight Even the Gentlest of Density

https://youtu.be/6WavljFV7fM?si=geir1FhAbhdgliv_

Nightmare on Craven Road: When Local Politics Derail Citywide Housing Goals

https://youtu.be/qVQ4gQRnOss?si=RFywNBKZedLERiuj

2025 Statcan Study: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2025005/article/00003-eng.htm

2026 Statcan Study: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/46-28-0001/2026001/article/00002-eng.htm

Toronto:

https://toronto.citynews.ca/2026/04/22/etobicoke-eightplex-site-mimico-residents-developer-toronto/

Calgary:

https://calgary.citynews.ca/2026/04/22/calgary-federal-housing-funds/ 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Canada’s growing debt isn’t just a problem for governments; it could shape the future for younger generations.

Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt explore how government debt, Old Age Security (OAS), and spending choices shift wealth between generations. They discuss whether wealthy seniors should receive full OAS benefits and how younger Canadians may be paying more through higher taxes, housing costs, and rising debt.

While not all debt is harmful, borrowing for long-term investments like infrastructure, transit, housing, and energy can be beneficial, borrowing to sustain costly programs is more controversial and raises questions about long-term fiscal sustainability.

The key question: Is Canada placing too much of the financial burden on younger generations?

Topics covered:
• Canada’s rising public debt and interest costs
• Old Age Security (OAS) and wealthy seniors
• Intergenerational wealth transfers
• Why government debt is rarely fully “paid off”
• Infrastructure investment vs. program spending
• The Gordie Howe Bridge and public investment
• Inflation, money creation, and debt
• Housing, taxes, and affordability for younger Canadians
• OAS reform and fiscal trade-offs

Chapters:

01:28 OAS: The $100 Billion Problem Hiding in the Budget

02:09 Why Wealthy Seniors Still Get Old Age Security

03:28 When Government Debt Is Actually a Good Thing

05:29 Who Should Pay for Infrastructure That Lasts 100 Years?

06:00 The Gordie Howe Bridge and the Case for Government Debt

06:53 The Truth About How Government Debt Gets Paid Off

08:49 Why Canada’s Growing Debt Still Matters

09:16 How Government Debt Can Fuel Inflation

10:18 What Happens When Governments Can’t Borrow?

11:38 Why Deficits Are Especially Dangerous for OAS

12:08 Should Canada Cut Old Age Security?

13:10 Are Younger Canadians Giving Up on Canada?

13:58 There’s No Easy Way to Fix the Intergenerational Wealth Gap

14:55 Why Younger Canadians Want Lower Taxes

16:20 Why Tax Cuts Aren’t Fixing the Generational Divide

16:46 When Government Debt Makes Sense—and When It Doesn’t

Research/Links:

As Canada faces crippling debt, it must do the unpopular thing and cut elderly benefits

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-canada-debt-cut-elderly-benefits/

Scott Gallowy Short:

https://youtube.com/shorts/PAAbLq1bJY0?si=9-Z06rW1H8tiQW-k

Canadian taxpayers face up to $3,348 each in government debt interest

https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/canadian-taxpayers-face-up-to-3348-each-in-government-debt-interest/392762

The Burdens of borrowing: Government debt and intergenerational fairness

https://www.if.org.uk/2025/01/28/the-burdens-of-borrowing-government-debt-and-intergenerational-fairness/

G7 debt is now a pressure point for anxious markets

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/g7-debt-is-now-pressure-point-anxious-markets-2025-06-03/

The evolution of federal debt interest costs in Canada

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/commentary/evolution-federal-debt-interest-costs-canada

Canada’s combined federal-provincial government debt estimated to surpass $2.4 trillion in 2025/26

https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/growing-debt-burden-canadians-2026-edition

Intergenerational Injustice in Canadian Public Finance

https://www.gensqueeze.ca/intergenerational_injustice_in_canadian_public_finance

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Canada’s parental leave system was built for a workforce that no longer exists. As work and family life have changed, the policy hasn’t, leaving more parents without the support they need.

In this episode of Classonomics, Sabrina Maddeaux and Mike Moffatt examine why Canada's parental leave system is increasingly out of step with today's workforce. They discuss how rising housing costs, stagnant income replacement, contract work, and outdated Employment Insurance rules are making it harder for Canadians to start or grow their families.

The conversation explores why many parents, especially freelancers, self-employed workers, and those in the gig economy, struggle to qualify for benefits, how employer parental leave top-ups are disappearing, and what Canada can learn from Quebec's parental insurance plan and Finland's family-friendly reforms.

Topics covered:

Why Canada's fertility rate has reached a record low
How EI parental leave actually works
Why one-third of Canadian mothers don't qualify for paid parental leave
The financial reality of taking parental leave today
Housing costs and the affordability of raising children
Why freelancers, contractors, and gig workers are left behind
The decline of employer parental leave top-ups
Quebec's parental leave model and its impact on fertility
Finland's parental leave reforms and shared parenting
Policy reforms that could make it easier for Canadians to have the families they want

Chapters:

00:00 Why Canada's fertility rate hit a record low
00:49 How Canada's parental leave system actually works
02:42 Why Young Canadians Are Delaying Having Kids
04:18 The Hidden Financial Penalty of Parental Leave
06:32 Why 1 in 3 Mothers Can't Access Paid Leave
08:08 The Self-Employment Trap
10:02 Why Employer Parental Leave Benefits Are Shrinking
12:37 What Quebec Gets Right About Parental Leave
14:34 Finland's Family Policy Is Changing Fatherhood
16:28 How Canada Could Fix Parental Leave
 
Research links:

Statistics Canada -- Canada's total fertility rate reaches a new low in 2024:
https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/9140-canadas-total-fertility-rate-reaches-new-low-2024

Statistics Canada -- The Daily: Fertility and baby names, 2024:
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250924/dq250924d-eng.htm

The Hub / Cardus -- Stop dismissing falling fertility rates as a choice (2.2 children wanted stat):
https://thehub.ca/2026/04/14/with-a-record-low-1-25-children-per-canadian-woman-stop-dismissing-falling-fertility-rates-as-a-choice/

Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives -- Support for parents in a post-pandemic world (EI reform; replacement rate, eligibility threshold proposals):
https://www.policyalternatives.ca/news-research/support-for-parents-in-a-post-pandemic-world-options-for-enhancing-federal-maternity-and-parental-leave/

Policy Options / IRPP -- Parental leave benefits need to be more practical and equitable (1 in 4 self-employed stat; top-up decline):
https://policyoptions.irpp.org/2024/05/parental-leave-equity/

PMC -- Policy and Fertility: A Case Study of the Quebec Parental Insurance Plan (peer-reviewed; fertility lift estimates):
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11070327/

Yle News / Helsinki Times -- More fathers taking parental leave since Finland's 2022 law change:
https://yle.fi/a/74-20162964

Fast Company -- Deloitte and Zoom cut parental leave and other benefits:
https://www.fastcompany.com/91530300/deloitte-and-zoom-cut-parental-leave-and-other-benefits

PMC -- Reconceptualizing Parental Leave Benefits in COVID-19 Canada: 
From Employment Policy to Care Policy (EI vs QPIP comparison; self-employed eligibility history):
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8229861/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Many people assume Canada’s suburbs are destined to decline as Baby Boomers age and younger generations embrace urban living. But does the data actually support that?

In this episode of DemograFix, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt examine new Statistics Canada research on how immigrants’ housing choices evolve over time. While most newcomers begin as renters in urban centres, the data shows many transition into homeownership, including family-sized homes in the suburbs, as they build their lives in Canada.

They also test this prediction against several scenarios that could prove it wrong, including lower immigration, more family-sized housing in cities, rising emigration, and changing housing preferences.

Chapters:

00:00 Why Everyone Got the Future of the Suburbs Wrong
00:27 Do Immigrants Actually Want Suburban Homes?
01:54 Why Newcomers Rent First—Then Buy Houses
04:33 Are Immigrants Buying Condos or Single-Family Homes?
06:56 Why Immigration Policy Shapes Housing Demand
08:03 Will Baby Boomers Flood the Market With Homes?
09:13 What Could Kill Demand for the Canadian Suburb?
10:28 Could Better Cities Replace the Suburbs?
12:04 Will Young Canadians Leave Instead of Buying Homes?
13:09 Is the Dream of a House With a Backyard Dying?
14:21 Does Canada's Housing Market Still Attract Immigrants?
17:54 Why People Buy Homes Even When It's a Bad Investment
19:15 The Housing Lesson Policymakers Keep Missing

Research/links:

Housing use of immigrants and non-permanent residents in ownership and rental markets https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2025005/article/00003-eng.htm

The homeownership trajectories of recent immigrants
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/46-28-0001/2026001/article/00002-eng.htm

Credits:
Mike Moffatt 
https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt
https://bsky.app/profile/mikepmoffatt.bsky.social

Cara Stern 
https://x.com/carastern
https://bsky.app/profile/carastern.bsky.social

Meredith Martin 
https://twitter.com/meredithmartin
https://bsky.app/profile/meredithmartin.bsky.social

Sean Foreman
@seanegertonforeman
https://bsky.app/profile/seanforeman.bsky.social

Co-op Student
Kelly Hoban

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Canada has spent decades trying to curb urban sprawl through policies like greenbelts, urban growth boundaries, and higher development charges, but what if those policies are having the opposite effect?

In this episode, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux examine the rise of "leapfrog development," where families priced out of cities move beyond growth boundaries into neighbouring communities, leading to longer commutes, higher infrastructure costs, and even more sprawl. They explore real-world examples from Ottawa, London, and the Greater Toronto Area, discuss the research behind these trends, and ask whether it's time to rethink how Canadian cities grow.

Topics covered:

Why urban growth boundaries were created
What leapfrog development is and why it matters
How greenbelts and development charges affect housing affordability
Why more families are moving outside city limits
The Ottawa and Carleton Place case study
Statistics Canada's commuting data and metro boundaries
The relationship between housing costs, commuting, and emissions
Why regional planning may work better than local planning
Can cities reduce sprawl without pricing families out?
Subscribe for more conversations on housing, affordability, economics, and public policy in Canada.
#Housing #Canada #UrbanPlanning #HousingCrisis #RealEstate #Affordability #Greenbelt #UrbanSprawl #PublicPolicy #MissingMiddle

Chapters:
00:00 Is the Greenbelt Actually Causing More Sprawl?
01:33 The "Strange Pattern" of Ontario's Development 
03:11 How StatsCan Defines Metro Boundaries 
05:07 The Rise of the "Commuter Village" 
07:59 What is "Leapfrog Development" & Why Boundaries Fail 
11:02 Why the Environmental Movement Refuses to Change Its Mind 
12:51 Anti-Sprawl Politics: Virtue Signaling vs. Real Outcomes 

Research:
Did Development Charges Cause Metro Ottawa to Grow by Over 1000km in Size?
https://www.missingmiddleinitiative.ca/p/did-development-charges-cause-metro 

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil

Has having three kids become a status symbol in Canada?

In this episode of DemograFix, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt explore why having three children has become a luxury for many middle-class Canadian families. From the cost of family-sized housing to childcare, career sacrifices, transportation, and the changing expectations placed on parents, they break down why so many families stop at two, even when they wanted more.

The conversation also looks at Canadian and international research on fertility, Quebec's childcare experiment, why family-sized homes have almost disappeared from our cities, and what governments would actually need to change if they want Canadians to have the families they hope for.

If you've ever wondered why three kids now feels like a status symbol, this episode explains the economics behind it.

Topics covered:

• Why Canada's fertility rate has reached record lows
• Is a third child becoming a luxury good?
• How housing shortages shape family size
• Why family-sized homes are disappearing
• The hidden career costs of having children
• Does affordable childcare actually increase birth rates?
• Why cities are losing young families
• What policies could make raising larger families affordable again

Chapters:

00:00 Why 3 Kids Are Becoming a Rich Person's Luxury

00:58 When Families Become Status Symbols

03:03 The Housing Crisis is Eliminating the Third Child

05:09 Canada Stopped Building Family Homes

06:28 The Big Childcare Problem

07:55 Does Cheap Childcare Actually Boost Birth Rates?

12:15 The Real Cost of a Third Baby

15:07 Families Are Being Forced Out of Cities

17:20 How Canada Could Make Three Kids Affordable Again

Research/links:

More Crowding, Fewer Babies: The Effects of Housing Density on Fertility | Institute for Family Studies 

https://ifstudies.org/blog/more-crowding-fewer-babies-the-effects-of-housing-density-on-fertility

The ultimate status symbol? A big family

https://www.ft.com/content/a4025e93-7552-4f8f-8ce2-e785a7d950a4?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Opinion | Three Kids? You Showoffs. - The Washington Post 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2008/04/06/three-kids-you-showoffs/6b7952ed-4547-4f9b-ae9b-cd9d2f1d8aa0/

Why are some families with children leaving the inner city and other staying? 

https://www.scup.com/doi/10.18261/njus.2.1.2

Home Alone | Cardus 

https://www.cardus.ca/research/family/reports/home-alone/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

Edited by Sean Foreman and Canadian Civil