This week, Nate and Maria discuss the asteroid that had a 3% chance of colliding with Earth. That risk is now closer to 0%—but, what does this example reveal about how to consider extremely costly events that are fairly unlikely to come to pass?

Then, they touch on the latest World Series of Poker drama and challenge each other to a game of Roshambo.

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.