Top Traders Unplugged

This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design?

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series

00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance

02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut

03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals

06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty

08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models

11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals

13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets

16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility

19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation

22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets

28:07 - Bubble dynamics, leverage and wealth effects

36:51 - Credit markets, AI investment and systemic risk

41:07 - Momentum, trend following and persistent market behavior

54:36 - Total portfolio approach and adaptive asset allocation

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Jeff on LinkedIn.

Find out more about DUNN Capital

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda

04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence

09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation

14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification

19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression

25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha

30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why BlackRock entered the ETF trend space

35:58 - Breadth, capacity and why market selection matters more than cocoa

41:12 - Defensive alpha explained using a credit lens on equities and crisis behaviour

46:27 - Execution, implementation alpha and using BlackRock’s liquidity river

51:39 - Constraints of wrappers, leverage limits and designing strategies for ETFs

56:54 - Growth of liquid alternatives, 50 30 20 and replacing the old 60 40 mindset

01:02:10 - Equity concentration, big tech, AI and the need for uncorrelated return streams

01:07:32 - Whole portfolio thinking, total portfolio approach and final takeaways

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week

01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets

03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure

05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend?

06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to

08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap

11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances

12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain

13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and Trend index line-ups and cutoffs

21:02 - Tariffs, AI capex, rising long rates and the changing bond landscape

29:28 - Is this really a 1990s-style productivity boom or something riskier?

33:52 - Why traditional versus alternative is the wrong lens for portfolios

38:30 - Inside Alan’s Adaptive Portfolio and the 40/40/20 risk framework

47:48 - Behavioural traps and the chronic under-allocation to true diversifiers

53:34 - Tail risks, fiscal dominance and what most portfolios are missing

56:59 - Adaptive versus 60/40: drawdowns, compounding and implications for retirees

01:01:42 - Implementation, return stacking and Morningstar’s leverage label problem

01:05:54 - Closing reflections, next week’s episode and final risk reminders

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Joe on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum”

00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners

01:50 - Joe’s path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author

05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime

10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects

13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance

16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge

20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from deflation

24:54 - Role reversal in 2025 and why future Asian performance must be earnings led

27:22 - Debt, deficits and fiscal dominance, from UK gilts to French OATs and US Treasuries

31:34 - Steeper curves and rising term premia, how the bond market can “murder” the cycle

32:26 - Rethinking 60/40, weaker bond diversification and the case for “diversifying diversifiers”

35:32 - Hedge funds, macro and why emerging markets may now be structurally less fragile

37:13 - Can EM really decouple, and what India versus China tells us about country effects

41:59 - Dollar overvaluation, policy preference for weakness and the fading of the dollar smile

47:27 - Fed succession, populism, and why 2 percent inflation will not feel like a ceiling

51:23 - Gold’s rise, stock bond correlation and the search for genuine risk mitigators

53:53 - Investor sentiment, nervous equilibrium and how institutions are repositioning risk

58:00 - Ten year return assumptions and constructing multipolar, all weather portfolios

01:02:04 - Book recommendations, learning macro and closing reflections

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday

01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/40

03:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios

05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs

08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future

09:22 - Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback

10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles

12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day”

16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really being delivered

18:16 - Targeting “space beta” plus cost savings: is complexity in CTAs adding or destroying value?

22:14 - Indexing the replication strategy and using swaps: Simplify’s new "low" headline fee ETF built on Andrew’s index

30:49 - The fee and cost debate: headline fees, trading costs, swaps and what investors should really ask

34:33 - Implementation costs, incentive fees and tax efficiency versus simple fee labels

45:08 - A better story for managed futures: from black box trend to “cloudy crystal ball”

51:22 - How trend taps local information: “someone knows something” and prices as detectors

58:03 - Takeaways from the Stockholm roundtable: short vs long term, exotic markets and heterogeneity

01:01:07 - Alpha-beta separation, core CTA beta vs high-conviction managers and where the space is heading

01:03:44 - Closing thoughts: civilized disagreement, common mission and why every portfolio needs this exposure

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world’s money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caught in its grip like no other country. We also discuss the one country in the world that seems to have escaped the trap and whether their lessons can be applied elsewhere. 

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Mike on X and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening and setup

00:00:49 - Disclaimer and show introduction

00:01:45 - The premise: land as humanity’s oldest asset

00:04:18 - Defining the “land trap” through Hong Kong’s model

00:09:01 - Three defining traits: scarcity, immovability, endurance

00:18:17 - Why technology can’t replace geography

00:23:29 - Land as collateral and the rise of mortgage finance

00:28:31 - Lazy banking and the limits of innovation

00:35:17 - Dead capital, human potential, and access to credit

00:39:37 - China’s land machine and the politics of stasis

00:46:37 - Evergrande, reallocation, and what “collapse” really means

00:52:28 - Singapore’s experiment: broad ownership, stable prices

00:58:17 - Can others follow Singapore’s path?

00:59:33 - Closing reflection

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series

00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK

01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium?

03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective

04:30 - Renaissance’s bad month and how even legends struggle

09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing

11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends

13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from

18:35 - George’s question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing

25:45 - How often to re-fit models and when to leave parameters alone

27:44 - Frederik’s question: intraday versus end of day for medium term trend

32:10 - Why trend following struggles on single assets and very fast timeframes

34:07 - Abraham’s question: what Rob would do differently after a decade live

41:05 - Carlo’s question: static vs dynamic sizing, skew and volatility targeting

46:07 - Rebalancing frequency, buffering, and asymmetric volatility risk

50:49 - Dario’s question: sentiment indicators, skew and what Rob actually uses

53:10 - Andreas’ question: ATR vs standard deviation and daily vs weekly data

56:29 - Stops, intraday execution and combining slow trend with fast mean reversion

59:27 - CalPERS adopts the total portfolio approach: what changes and why it matters

01:08:12 - Boxes, sleeves and why CTAs never fit neatly anywhere

01:11:55 - Could TPA be a game changer for trend following allocations?

01:14:19 - ChatGPT, consultants and the future of portfolio construction language

01:16:18 - Closing disclaimers and how to send in future questions

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow David on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich.

00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash.

00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed.

00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35.

00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification.

00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets.

00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time.

00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk.

00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures.

00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress.

00:37:48 – Euro FX vol: the paradox of cheap risk.

00:44:07 – Demographics and the quiet mathematics of decline.

00:47:46 – The “Hunger Games” for global savings begins.

00:52:57 – Lessons from 1997: FX and gold vol as survival trades.

00:56:11 – The anti-fiat portfolio—Bitcoin, gold, and long vol.

01:01:13 – Closing reflection on resilience as freedom.

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston

02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need

04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data

05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend

08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity

10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change

12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds

15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year

20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe

24:10 - Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently

26:20 - Liberation Day: three consecutive shock days and what CTAs learned

33:40 - Economic trend, price trend and the blurry line with global macro

39:00 - Crisis alpha, convexity and when fundamentals stop mattering

44:50 - The rise of alternatives and why “core” portfolios are changing

48:20 - How the industry can tap private wealth and model portfolios

52:00 - Trend in target retirement funds and the sequence of returns problem

56:40 - Looking ahead, volatility forecasting and next week’s guest

58:25 - Wrap up, disclosures and final reflections

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

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Disclaimer

China’s ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party’s control and the market’s gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the politics of currency, Magnus sketches China not as a riddle to be solved, but as a system nearing the limits of its own design.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to [email protected]

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening and disclaimer

02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus

06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly

11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base

16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing

22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects

25:45 – China’s “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs

27:40 – Who’s levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt

29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences

33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China tactics

38:01 – Belt & Road 2.0: fewer loans, more influence

42:56 – Capital controls and the ceiling on RMB internationalization

49:00 – Hong Kong’s evolving financial role

50:54 – CCP control after the plenum; succession optics

53:47 – Taiwan scenarios and risk contours

55:51 – Plateau vs. precipice: what could still break

57:54 – Career advice for macro and China analysis

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer