ChinaPower

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Mr. Gregory C. Allen to discuss artificial intelligence (AI), China’s thinking on AI technology, and U.S.-China competition in this realm. Mr. Allen explains that over the last decade, the approach to AI technology has greatly shifted with a new emphasis on machine learning. He describes the steps of the AI value chain and how different stages are more computationally intensive than others. He assesses that China has responded to U.S. export controls on certain advanced computing chips to China through several measures, including foreign technology acquisition and restriction evasion. However, Mr. Allen points out that chip making equipment is central to AI technology, and China does not yet possess this capability. Lastly, he reveals that the Chinese military views AI capabilities as foundational to China’s economic and military power. 

Gregory C. Allen is the director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies and a senior fellow in the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Prior to joining CSIS, he was the director of strategy and policy at the Department of Defense (DOD) Joint Artificial Intelligence Center, where he oversaw development and implementation of the DOD’s AI Strategy, drove policy and human capital reforms to accelerate the DOD’s adoption of AI, developed mechanisms for AI governance and ethics, and led frequent diplomatic engagements with governments and militaries in Europe and the Indo-Pacific regions, including China.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Ms. Kari Bingen to discuss U.S.-China competition in space and Beijing’s ambitions in the domain. Ms. Bingen explains that space has become a more important domain for a variety of actors with security and economic interests. China has rapidly expanded its space program and, as Ms. Bingen details, seeks a preeminent position among countries with space capabilities. Lastly, Ms. Bingen reveals the need for cooperation in space to establish norms for behavior and counter malign actors. 

Kari Bingen is the director of the Aerospace Security Project and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS. She joined CSIS from HawkEye 360, an innovative space technology company creating a new class of radio frequency data and analytics. Prior to the private sector, Ms. Bingen served as the deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security, overseeing the defense intelligence and security enterprises, comprising more than 120,000 personnel and an annual budget of over $54 billion. Before that, she served as the policy director on the House Armed Services Committee and staff lead for its Strategic Forces Subcommittee, advising members of Congress on defense policy, program, and budget matters. In addition to her work at CSIS, Ms. Bingen is an adjunct assistant professor at Georgetown University.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Ms. Caitlin Chin to discuss the debate around TikTok in the United States and the question of China’s influence over the platform. Ms. Chin explains the conversation around the U.S.’ proposed ban of TikTok, describing that supporters worry that user information will fall into the hands of the Chinese government, while opponents worry about restrictions on free expression. Despite TikTok’s denial that Beijing has or would obtain access to its data, Ms. Chin suggests deep mistrust between the U.S. and China has prevented U.S. lawmakers from accepting these claims. Lastly, Ms. Chin looks to India as an analogue for what could happen if the United States banned TikTok, noting that TikTok’s exit in India caused an increase in users for domestic social media platforms. 

Caitlin Chin is a Fellow with the Strategic Technologies Program at CSIS. Ms. Chin previously worked as a research analyst at the Brookings Institution, where her projects centered around U.S. federal and state legislation related to information privacy, antitrust, and algorithmic bias. She has spoken on C-SPAN, NPR, and France 24, and her work has been cited by the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, and the Future of Privacy Forum. Ms. Chin has a BA in government and Spanish from the University of Maryland and an MPP from Georgetown University's McCourt School of Public Policy.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Mr. Randall Schriver to discuss Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s recent transit of the United States and broader cross-Strait issues. Mr. Schriver explains the context behind President Tsai’s latest transit through the U.S. and what made this transit both in line with prior transits and unique and successful. Mr. Schriver suggests that it is still too early to see the full Chinese response, but concerns about Taiwan’s presidential election next year could cause Beijing to have a muted reaction to Tsai’s transit. Regardless of China’s reaction, he sees the Taiwan-United States relationship continuing to strengthen into the future.

Mr. Randall Schriver is the Chairman of the Board of the Project 2049 Institute and a strategic advisor to Pacific Solutions LLC. He is also a lecturer for Stanford University’s “Stanford-in-Washington” program, is on the Board of Advisors to the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA, and Board of Directors of the US-Taiwan Business Council. Prior to that, he was a founding partner of Armitage International LLC and Chief Executive Officer and President of the Project 2049 Institute. His civilian government roles have included Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Affairs and Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. 

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Dr. Sameer Lalwani to discuss the evolving relationship between China and Pakistan. He explains that China has accumulated major leverage over Pakistan through both economic investment and arms sales. Dr. Lalwani also details how China might seek greater access to ports in the Indian Ocean through Pakistan. Looking forward, Dr. Lalwani argues that despite the close relationship, Pakistan has a different threat perception than China and values its autonomy. If possible, Pakistan does not want to pick sides in the emerging U.S.-China competition, opening the door to possible U.S. engagement with Islamabad. 

Dr. Sameer Lalwani is a senior expert on South Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace. He is also a non-resident senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. From 2015 to 2022, Dr. Lalwani was a senior fellow for Asia strategy and the director of the South Asia program at the Stimson Center. He has also spent time as an adjunct professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs and as a Stanton nuclear security postdoctoral fellow at the RAND Corporation. Dr. Lalwani has conducted field research in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka and is a term member with the Council on Foreign Relations.

On this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Nicholas Borst to discuss China’s debt situation and fiscal policy. He explains that China’s debt levels have increased dramatically relative to the size of the Chinese economy and China has more debt as a proportion of GDP compared to the United States. Much of the debt is concentrated in local governments, state-owned enterprises (SOEs), and real estate developers. Mr. Borst describes China’s decentralized fiscal system where the Chinese central government is fiscally conservative and local governments bear more risk and are responsible for healthcare, infrastructure, and social insurance as well as supporting key central initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative. Although no Chinese local government has defaulted to date, Chinese SOEs have defaulted, and their defaults have led to shocks to the Chinese market.  Looking forward, Mr. Borst argues that the reforms passed at China’s recent “Two Sessions” will do little to address the root issues of China’s fiscal issues. 

Nick Borst is the vice president and director of China research at Seafarer Capital Partners. Prior to joining Seafarer, he was a senior analyst at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco covering financial and economic developments in Greater China. Previously, Mr. Borst was the China program manager and a research associate at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He also worked as an analyst at the World Bank, reviewing Chinese overseas investment projects. His research focuses on financial reform in China, investment flows between the United States and China, and China’s shadow banking system.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Philip O'Keefe to discuss China’s changing demographic composition and challenges the country might face as a result. He explains that China’s falling population and low birth rates are the result of decades of population control measures, including the one-child policy. Mr. O'Keefe describes that, despite the rollback of these kinds of policies and new government incentives to have children, China’s birth rate remains low due to the high cost of child rearing in the country and economic development. Looking forward, Mr. O’Keefe discusses the role that automation might play in alleviating some demographic pressures and mounting health and economic challenges China will face as its population shrinks and ages. 

Philip O'Keefe is a professor of practice at the University of New South Wales Sydney Business School and Director of the Ageing Asia Research Hub at the Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR). Prior to joining CEPAR, Philip worked from 1993-2021 at the World Bank in Washington D.C., Beijing, New Delhi, Sydney, and Budapest. He worked in East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia regions, most recently as Practice Manager for Social Protection and Jobs for the EAP region.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, Bonnie Glaser joins us to discuss the recent changes to U.S.-China relations. She first explains how a large Chinese surveillance balloon transited continental United States in early February 2023 with communications surveillance equipment on board, potentially collecting data from sensitive military installations. Ms. Glaser argues that Secretary Blinken’s trip to China was postponed due to a combination of domestic and international pressures resulting from the balloon incident. Lastly, she explains that despite potential meetings between U.S and Chinese leadership later this year, U.S.-China relations will likely face difficulties moving forward due to a lack of trust.  

Bonnie S. Glaser is managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program and the host of the China Global podcast. She is also a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum. She was previously director of GMF’s Asia program, and senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at CSIS. Ms. Glaser has worked at the intersection of Asia-Pacific geopolitics and US policy for more than three decades. From 2008 to mid-2015, she was a senior adviser with the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, and from 2003 to 2008, she was a senior associate in the CSIS International Security Program. Prior to joining CSIS, she served as a consultant for various U.S. government offices, including the Departments of Defense and State.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Dr. Yanzhong Huang to discuss the impact of China’s Zero-Covid policy and how reopening has affected the country. He explains that China’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic evolved over three phases, the most recent of which occurred in December 2022 with the end of strict controls. Dr. Huang argues that mounting social and economic pressure pushed the Chinese government to make a dramatic policy shift without warning. Lastly, he examines how the end of Zero-Covid could contribute to China’s economic recovery, but could also undermine the public’s confidence in Chinese leadership. 

Dr. Yanzhong Huang is a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he directs the Global Health Governance roundtable series. He is also a professor and director of global health studies at Seton Hall University's School of Diplomacy and International Relations, where he developed the first academic concentration among U.S. professional international affairs schools that explicitly addresses the security and foreign policy aspects of health issues.

In this episode of the ChinaPower Podcast, we are joined by Dr. Victor Cha to discuss the changing dynamics on the Korean Peninsula and the relationship between China and North Korea. He explains that despite outward appearances, the China-DPRK relationship is deeply fraught and not as close as it may seem. Dr. Cha reveals that between a strict Covid-19 lockdown and the sanctions imposed between 2016-2017, North Korea's dependence on China has fallen and Beijing may now lack adequate tools to place pressure on Pyongyang. Lastly, Dr. Cha challenges the notion that the United States and China share goals for a nuclear-free Korean peninsula. Rather, he contends, the two share common ground in wanting to prevent conflict on the peninsula.

Dr. Victor Cha is a Senior Vice President for Asia and holds the CSIS Korea Chair. He is professor of government and holds the D.S. Song-KF Chair in the Department of Government and the School of Foreign Service (SFS) at Georgetown University. In July 2019, he was appointed vice dean for faculty and graduate affairs in SFS. While working for the White House between 2004-2007, Dr. Cha was the director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council. He was responsible primarily for Japan, the Korean peninsula, Australia/New Zealand, and Pacific Island nation affairs. Dr. Cha was also the deputy head of delegation for the United States at the Six-Party Talks in Beijing. He is the author of five books, including the award-winning Alignment Despite Antagonism: The United States-Korea-Japan Security Triangle.