Ecommerce Playbook: Numbers, Struggles & Growth

In this episode of the Podcast, we break down the real story of BFCM 2025—from forecasting accuracy to media buying chaos, offer pivots, AppLovin’s breakout performance, and what this year’s results say about the broader consumer economy.

Richard and Taylor walk through:

• The full BFCM data recap: +7% total revenue, +10% new customers, +13% contribution margin

• Why Saturday became the surprise winner of the weekend

• AppLovin outperforming expectations by 100%+

• Meta delivery volatility, and why it’s part of the game

• Tactical offer changes that saved entire BFCM weekends

• The rise of BNPL and concerning consumer financial behavior

• What this all means for 2026 planning

If you’re preparing for the year ahead, this episode breaks down the numbers, the lessons, and the trends shaping how brands should think about forecasting, spending, and customer acquisition going into 2026.

Show Notes:

• Start your free trial now at https://bit.ly/4isWjjq

  Explore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.com

• The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

Black Friday is three days away but there’s still time to tighten your strategy and avoid costly mistakes. In this episode of the podcast, the CTC team breaks down the 5 essential last-minute BFCM fixes every brand needs before the biggest weekend of the year.

Whether you're behind on creative, unsure about spend pacing, or just want to sanity-check your plan…this is the checklist that will save your BFCM.

What we cover:

• Locking spend to aMER targets

• Auditing & refreshing creative without producing anything new

• Simplifying your offer across the entire customer journey

• Operational readiness (don’t ruin a good sale!)

• Hour-by-hour tracking & how to take action quickly

If you want a clean, no-nonsense guide to surviving Black Friday/Cyber Monday (and setting yourself up for your best one yet), this is the episode.

Show Notes:

• Start your free trial now at https://bit.ly/4isWjjq
• Explore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.com
• The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

In our first CFO Summit Taylor breaks down the Board, Budget, Bonus forecasting framework—CTC’s core system for building a clear, defensible, and aligned financial plan for 2026.This replay walks you through how high-performing ecommerce brands create scenario models that serve their board, their finance team, and their operators… all without losing focus during the busy BFCM season.In this replay, you’ll learn:-The 3 scenario model every CFO should build for 2026-How to anchor your plan in real data not hope or assumptions-Why most ecommerce forecasts break (and how to fix yours)-How new vs. returning customer trends shape next year’s revenue-How to connect your marketing calendar directly to your financial plan-Why forecasting succeeds or fails based on daily executionWhether you’re a founder, CFO, VP of Finance, or operator driving next year’s plan, this replay gives you the structure and clarity to build a forecast your board—and your team—can trust.Show Notes:The CFO Summit series brought to you by:

• Fulfil: https://bit.ly/3JWVJ0q
• TaxCloud: https://bit.ly/3LQ1M7u
• Explore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.com
• The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

Meta’s new creative ranking systems are changing everything, and most brands have no idea how much it’s affecting their performance. In this episode, we break down exactly how Meta’s Black Box evaluates your ads, why your creatives are being grouped together, and why small variations (like hook swaps) no longer matter the way you think they do.

Our Guest today is Reza Khadjavi, CEO at Motion, the creative reporting platform trusted by top DTC brands.

What you’ll learn:

• Why Meta sees one ad even when you upload ten

• How Andromeda assigns “priors” to your creative

• Why hook testing isn’t moving the needle anymore

• How AI labeling is changing creative analysis

• What creative diversity actually means to Meta

• The end of growth hacking (and what comes next)

• How to build a creative strategy that still works in a black box world

If your ads feel stuck, inconsistent, or unpredictable… This episode will explain why.

Show Notes:

• This episode is brought to you by Tie: http://meettie.com
• Explore the PROPHIT System:http://prophitsystem.com
• The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

How do you set the right ROAS target on Meta heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday?

Most brands either guess… or use last month’s numbers and hope they hold.

But BFCM behaves nothing like a normal period and the attribution windows prove it.

In this episode, Tony and Steve walk through the real data behind Meta’s 7-day vs. 28-day click attribution, why value shifts dramatically in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, and how that should change your spend strategy right now.

You’ll learn:

• How much value Meta under-reports in the 7-day window

• Why pre-BFCM ad spend has a longer conversion tail

• How to push your ROAS target lower without tanking efficiency

• How incrementality testing plays into your spend ceiling

• Why daily spending power spikes in early November—and how to use it

• How to analyze YOUR 7-day vs 28-day attribution before BFCM

Show Notes:

• This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.com
• Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com
• The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

Most ecommerce brands build one forecast — and that’s why most forecasts are wrong.

In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the 3-forecast model that every high-performing brand should use when planning for 2026: Board. Budget. Bonus.

You’ll learn:

• Why every brand needs three forecasts, not one

• How to balance short-term execution (Black Friday) with long-term planning (2026)

• How to model different outcomes for your board, your operating budget, and your team goals

• How to use tools like percentage-over-model and event effect modeling to make forecasts actually useful

If you’re leading growth, finance, or operations at a 7 to 9 figure brand, this episode will help you plan smarter, forecast with confidence, and build a roadmap that aligns your team from boardroom to bonus.

Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-system

Show Notes:

• This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com

• The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

Most brands are building their 2026 plan all wrong.

In this episode, Taylor breaks down why you can’t walk into the new year with one financial forecast — and why the smartest brands plan three: Board, Budget, and Bonus.

You’ll learn how to:

• Build scenario plans that align finance and marketing

• Forecast existing and new customer revenue with confidence

• Connect your marketing calendar directly to your financial goals

• Present a plan your board, your bank, and your team will actually believe in

Whether you’re a CMO, CEO, or founder planning for growth in 2026, this is your playbook for making smarter decisions before the year even starts.

Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-system

Bonus Offer (through Nov 11): Sign up now and get our Black Friday Cyber Monday Hourly Tracking Report — free.

Show Notes:

• This episode is brought to you by Tie: meettie.comExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com

• The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

Black Friday isn’t won by guessing, it’s won hour by hour.

In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how top DTC brands use real-time ad spend optimization to hit — and even exceed — their Black Friday and Cyber Monday targets.

You’ll learn how hourly tracking transforms decision making during the biggest shopping weekend of the year, plus:

• How to spot pacing issues before it’s too late

• When to scale ad spend versus pull back in real time

• What hourly data reveals about buyer behavior on BFCM

• Why last year’s patterns are your best forecasting tool for this year

Limited offer: Get a free Black Friday Hourly Tracking Report when you purchase a Prophit System, your full-year spend and forecasting model built by Common Thread Collective.

Show Notes:

• This episode is brought to you by: Finaloop: https://get.finaloop.com/ecommerce-playbook-podcast/Explore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com

• The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

After months of mixed signals, new data from the DTC Index shows ecommerce revenue is up 10% year over year — but consumer confidence is heading in the opposite direction.

In this episode, host Richard sits down with Steve, CTC’s Chief Data Scientist, to unpack what’s really happening in the numbers. They dig into the latest data from our DTC Index and Consumer Confidence Index, exploring:

• Why returning customers are driving growth this fall

• The strange disconnect between economic sentiment and spending behavior

• How to use consumer confidence data to forecast your spending power

• What this all means for your Black Friday and 2026 planning

If you’re an ecommerce operator or growth strategist trying to separate signal from noise this holiday season, this one’s for you.

Show Notes:

• The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have

Want to stop guessing when to spend your Meta budget during Black Friday and Cyber Monday? This episode breaks down exactly how to plan your ad spend hour by hour so you can hit your revenue goals without wasting a single dollar.

Taylor Holiday and Luke Austin walk through the real data behind BFCM revenue flow, showing when sales actually spike, when performance dips, and how top DTC brands use hourly pacing to stay ahead. You’ll learn how to:

• Map your ad spend across Thanksgiving → Cyber Monday

• Read the “horseshoe” pattern of revenue flow

• Avoid early-morning panic when your ROAS looks bad

• Set hourly targets using the Prophit System models

• Course-correct in real time to hit your daily goals

Whether you’re managing a seven-figure Meta account or running your first big BFCM campaign, this framework will help you build a smarter plan — not just react to dashboards.

Show Notes:

• Ready to solve your influencer strategy? Book Your Strategy Demo at https://www.getsaral.com/demoExplore the PROPHIT System: prophitsystem.com

• The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have