Forward Guidance

By Blockworks

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest mi... more

4.5

251251 ratings

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FAQs about Forward Guidance:

How many episodes does Forward Guidance have?

The podcast currently has 574 episodes available.

Forward Guidance episodes:

March 20, 2025 The U.S. Debt Crisis: Why Growth Is the Only Solution | Mohamed El-Erian Pt. 2 LIVE @ DAS
In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss his Fed & QT expectations, his outlook for inflation, and the four ways the government can solve its debt problem. We also delve into stablecoins buying US debt, Bitcoin’s potential as a neutral reserve asset for global trade, the sputnik moment in Europe, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Mohamed El-Erian: https://x.com/elerianm
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
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Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:10) Expectations for the Fed
(02:47) Inflation Expectations
(09:38) Ledger Ad
(10:25) Tariffs & Growth
(13:20) Debt Dynamics and Fiscal Policies
(22:31) Stablecoins and Digital Assets
(25:12) Ledger Ad
(28:31) Bitcoin as a Neutral Reserve Asset
(33:00) Europe's Sputnik Moment
(37:39) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

...more
40min
March 19, 2025 Stablecoins Are The Next Big Buyer Of US Debt | Matt Hougan LIVE @ DAS
In this episode, Matt Hougan joins the show to discuss his bullish 2025 outlook for Bitcoin, why the US government needs stablecoins, and what’s next for the broader crypto industry. We also delve into how bullish institutions are compared to retail, Bitcoin's correlation to gold, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Matt: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
—
Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:50) Macro & Crypto
(04:38) Global Fiscal Impulse
(06:18) The US Needs Stablecoins
(09:30) US Embrace of Bitcoin
(12:54) What’s Next for the Industry
(15:17) Institutions are Bullish!
(16:40) Fragmentation of ETF vs On-chain Assets
(20:28) Bitcoin’s Correlation to Gold
(21:38) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
23min
March 14, 2025 Be Careful Buying The Dip Here | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss the latest inflation data, the reversal of US exceptionalism, and Trump’s bold tariff bet potentially backfiring. We also delve into how we’re thinking about yields, whether 60/40 is compelling right now, why we’re in a crypto bear market, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e0GanjFY1lh2TKOFL7QQwGi6KY9nWhwl/view?usp=sharing
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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:42) Upcoming Digital Asset Summit
(02:16) CPI Takeaways
(05:51) Reversal of US Exceptionalism
(08:45) Ledger Ad
(09:34) Recession vs Growth Scare
(14:11) Trump's Bold Tariff Game
(20:09) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade
(24:36) Ledger Ad
(25:21) The Long Foreign Markets-Short US Trade (Con't)
(31:11) It's a Bear Market
(32:36) Bitcoin and Crypto Market Analysis
(34:26) Bond Market & Yields
(39:11) 60/40 Portfolio
(42:34) Hedging Strategies
(45:08) Crypto Market Prospects
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
56min
March 12, 2025 The Bottom Is In For Yields, NOT Equities | Vincent Deluard
In this episode, Vincent Deluard joins the show to discuss his on-the-money inflation calls and future outlook, the consequences of Trump’s tariff flip-flopping, and the buyers of US duration. We also delve into the impact of DOGE, the Trump Admin’s Treasury market goals, the surge in foreign yields, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Vincent Deluard: https://x.com/VincentDeluard
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
—
Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:40) Inflation Predictions and Seasonal Adjustments
(05:50) Stagflation Concerns and Economic Slowdown
(07:33) State-Level Spending and Fiscal Policy
(17:42) Tariffs & the Art of the Deal
(19:25) Economic Noise vs Signal
(23:36) Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy
(25:36) DAS Promo
(26:13) Bond Market and Liquidity
(33:23) Target Date Funds
(36:17) Trump Administration Goals
(51:06) Surge in Foreign Yields
(59:22) Market Predictions
(01:03:36) Learn More About Vincent

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
1h 6min
March 08, 2025 Bearish Sentiment Is Overblown | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss the Trump trade shakeout, whether fear and volatility are presenting great buying opportunities, and the bond market after February’s NFP. We also delve into the outlook for the oil market, the subsectors Tony’s watching, destructive Bitcoin thinking and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Tony: https://x.com/TgMacro
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1j8QLpaGApqV5sOpojjcRKCilxnOcrF7M/view?usp=sharing
—
Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:43) Bitcoin and Crypto Market
(07:17) Equities and Recession Narratives
(14:14) Ledger Ad
(14:59) European Market Outlook
(18:59) Thoughts on Buying the Dip
(27:32) Ledger Ad
(28:18) Bond Market and NFP
(32:28) Oil Market Outlook
(37:51) Equity Subsectors
(40:10) Trading Strategies and Market Sentiment
(43:52) Crypto Market Advice
(48:45) Sectors that Will Lead Us Higher
(51:37) Maintaining Emotional Composure in Trading
(54:15) Learn More About Tony & Collab Plans

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
57min
March 07, 2025 The US is Risking Stagflation | Mohamed El-Erian
In this episode, Mohamed El-Erian joins the show to discuss the February jobs report, tariffs & imports front-running, and the inflation outlook, including the growing risk of stagflation. We also delve into the outlook for Europe, Japan, and China, Bitcoin and digital assets, and more. Enjoy!
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG200 FOR $200 OFF general admission! https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
__
Follow Mohamed: https://x.com/elerianm
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
—
Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:27) Job Report & Labor Market
(05:45) US Growth & Stagflation Risk
(09:41) Tariffs & Imports
(11:19) Inflation Outlook & Oil
(15:48) Fiscal Outlook
(19:32) DAS Promo
(20:14) Fed & Number of Cuts in 2025
(22:57) Goods, Services, & Shelter Inflation
(25:51) Europe, Japan, & China
(32:14) Bitcoin & Digital Assets
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
35min
March 05, 2025 The Market Is OVERREACTING to Policy Uncertainty | Jeff deGraaf
In this episode, Jeff deGraaf joins the show to discuss the current market regime and why he thinks a recession is unlikely, how he is thinking about the different S&P sectors, and how foreign markets like Europe and China compare to the US. We also delve into the outlook for yields and monetary policy, credit spreads, gold, Bitcoin, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Jeff deGraaf: https://x.com/RenMacLLC
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
—
Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
__
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:09) Market Cycle Clock Explained
(06:09) Deciphering the Market Regime
(10:13) Sector Performance and Predictions
(11:01) Ledger Ad
(11:46) Sector Performance and Predictions (Con't)
(19:04) Outlook for European and Chinese Markets
(24:30) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook
(32:48) Ledger Ad
(33:33) Monetary Policy and Fixed Income Outlook (Con't)
(34:35) Credit Spreads and Market Sentiment
(37:08) Gold and Bitcoin
(41:27) Highest Conviction Bet for 2025

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
45min
February 28, 2025 The Market Leads The Economy—And It’s Heading Down | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss why markets lead the economy and a drawdown will trigger a recession, the possibility of stagflation & repercussions of low interest rates, and the impact of Trump’s political agenda on markets and the economy. We also delve into the outlook for oil and gold, market skew, OpEx-driven drawdowns, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW
Supply Shock YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@SupplyShockBW
Follow Cem: https://x.com/jam_croissant
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1F8U5kLU2L_bITYG3CM6dn8e7X897-CDT/view?usp=sharing
—
Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
—
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:44) Macro Overview
(05:21) Recession Predictions
(07:28) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction
(10:42) Skale Ad
(11:04) Interest Rates, Inflation, & Market Reaction (Con't)
(14:21) Trump, Populism, & Economic Policy Outlook
(24:35) Historical Comparisons
(31:50) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations
(33:32) Skale Ad
(34:03) Market Reflexivity & Inflation Expectations (Con’t)
(39:10) Skew Dynamics and Volatility
(46:01) Portfolio Allocation Strategies
(49:51) Oil and Gold Market Insights
(54:23) Final Thoughts OpEx Crumbs
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
1h
February 26, 2025 The Fed's Balance Sheet Plans Are Kryptonite For Risk Assets | Andy Constan
In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show to discuss Quantitative Tightening 2.0, why the Fed wants to change its SOMA portfolio, and the connection between QT, the debt ceiling, and TGA. We also delve into the deficit, DOGE success being anti-growth, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
—
Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
__
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) Understanding Quantitative Tightening (QT) 2.0
(10:01) Skale Ad
(10:22) Why the Fed Wants to Adjust its SOMA Portfolio
(17:50) Potential Market Impacts and Future Strategies
(25:17) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics
(34:51) Skale Ad
(35:21) Debate on QT Pause and Debt Ceiling Dynamics (Con't)
(38:35) Monetary Plumbing, Debt Ceiling Concerns, & Demand for Treasuries
(44:03) Impact of Budget Deficit on Issuance & Interest Rates
(52:28) Economic Projections and Policy Impacts
(01:00:55) Risk Assets and Market Sentiment
(01:05:44) Is There A Bond Trade?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

...more
1h 11min
February 21, 2025 Unpacking The Fed & Treasury’s Master Plan | Weekly Roundup
This week, we discuss the big takeaways from the Fed Meeting Minutes, Bessent’s remarks on Treasury issuance and inflation, and the near-term liquidity picture. We also delve into oil and energy policy, the limited upside in crypto right now, and much more. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+nSVVTQITWSdiYTIx
—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ziABEksWyIgTom9idgy5HhVyThbd3Kyb/view?usp=sharing
—
Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. USE CODE FG10 FOR 10% OFF general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
__
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:33) FOMC Meeting Minutes
(06:29) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases
(16:20) Skale Ad
(16:42) Fed's Balance Sheet and Treasury Purchases (Con't)
(20:15) Inflation Data and Fed's Perspective
(22:41) Skale Ad
(23:12) Liquidity Concerns and QT
(27:07) Inflation and Economic Growth
(29:11) Oil & Global Energy Policies
(32:21) Microsoft CEO's Take on AI and CapEx
(33:43) Yen & DAX
(38:09) Crypto Market Update
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
49min

FAQs about Forward Guidance:

How many episodes does Forward Guidance have?

The podcast currently has 574 episodes available.