Inflection Point

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On today’s episode, Adam Back Co-Founder & CEO of Blockstream joins the show for a discussion on where we are in the Bitcoin cycle.

We deep dive into the mechanics of the mining sector, developments in the lightning network, whether or not a Bitcoin ETF is good for the ethos of Bitcoin & finally why Adam believes Bitcoin under $100,000 is undervalued. To hear all this & more, you'll have. to tune in!

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:36) Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks

(05:42) Bitcoin & Bonds

(07:49) Bitcoin ETF

(11:54) DAS London Plug

(13:12) Where Are We In The Bitcoin Cycle?

(17:44) Bitcoin's Path To $100,000

(20:17) Bitcoin Mining

(37:02) Blockworks Research Ad

(37:50) Does More Bitcoin Hashrate Equal More Security?

(46:23) The Bitcoin Security Model

(50:57) Bitcoin Ordinals

(57:05) The Lightning Network

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week Mark & Mike discuss the market rally in stocks & bonds after the U.S Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement (QRA).

We also deep dive into Powell's FOMC meeting, the Nonfarm Payroll's data release & this weeks Coinbase earnings. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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On today’s episode, Andy Constan Founder of Damped Spring & Co-Founder of 2 Gray Beards joins the show to disucss the recent QRA release from the U.S Treasury.

As markets anticipated a higher amount of long end issuance, Andy turned bullish a few days ago when the numbers surprised to the downside & joins the show to explain exactly how he was able to catch this weeks risk on rally. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:44) Why Andy Wen't Long Risk Asset's Post QRA Announcement

(06:40) Bills vs Bonds Issuance

(11:41) Should The U.S Have Termed Out Their Debt?

(15:46) DAS London Promo

(17:04) Financial Conditions Have Massively Eased

(21:44) We're Back To Act I In The Inflation Cycle

(24:25) Blockworks Research Ad

(25:13) The Consequences Of This QRA Are Being Felt

(32:50) The Path Towards Recession

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael Kao, former hedge fund manager and private investor, returns to On The Margin alongside Forward Guidance host Jack Farley to break down the U.S. Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) and Fed’s FOMC meeting that marked the first day of November.

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Michael Kao’s article discussed in the show: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationoilgoldyield-curves-revisiting

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-a... Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place.

As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/ –

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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On today’s episode, Arthur Hayes CIO at Maelstrom Fund joins the show to explore his current macro framework and how that will impact crypto for the rest of the year & into 2024.

We discuss the bursting of the sovereign debt bubble as bonds continue one of their largest sell-off's in U.S history, the dreaded bear steepener and it's impact on bank balance sheets, market liquidity & how crypto can act as a safe haven during periods of financial repression, deleveraging & inflation. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Referenced In The Show:

Oil: The Making of the Modern World: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/167-oil-the-making-of-the-modern-world/id1537788786?i=1000555057140

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:38) The Debt Problem

(05:43) The Dreaded Bear Steepener

(10:56) Are U.S Banks In Trouble Again?

(15:30) The Social Consequences Of Too Much Debt

(20:19) DAS London Plug

(21:36) Financial Repression

(28:18) Trade Wars Are The Mirror Image Of Currency Wars

(33:11) Blockworks Research

(42:27) Bitcoin

(43:15) The Crypto Bull Market

(54:42) The Bitcoin Halving

(56:05) Liquidity

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the recent price action in Bitcoin. As Bitcoin breached $30k, it quickly ran up to $35k as investors anticipated an eventual spot Bitcoin ETF. We also discuss the gamma squeeze that took place, the increasing participation of "hodlers" & the role of the halving. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Digital Asset Summit 2024. Use Code: MARGIN20 for a 20% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This episode is from another of Blockworks' shows Forward Guidance. We hope you enjoy & remember to go follow Forward Guidance:

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Today’s interview is a very special one. Dr. Claudio Borio, renowned economist and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the Bank For International Settlements (BIS), joins Joseph Wang of Fedguy.com and Jack Farley for a wide-ranging discussion on the nature of financial instability and the interplay of monetary policy and fiscal policy.

Borio shares insight from recent BIS research on inflationary regimes, financial cycles, and the boundaries of debt-fueled growth. Borio notes that the materialization of interest rate risk has so far been seen in the banking sector, but that we have yet to credit risk. Filmed on October 17, 2023.

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Some of Borio’s and the BIS’ works mentioned in this interview:

“Monetary and fiscal policy: safeguarding stability and trust,” June 2023 Presentation in Basel, Switzerland, Claudio Borio

https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp230625a_slides.pdf

“The two-regime view of inflation,” March 2023, Claudio Borio, Marco Lombardi, James Yetman and Egon Zakrajšek

https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap133.pdf

“International banking and financial market developments” BIS Quarterly Review, September 2023

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2309.pdf

“Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?” 26 January 2023, Claudio Borio, Boris Hofmann and Egon Zakrajšek

https://www.bis.org/publ/bisbull67.pdf

“On money, debt, trust and central banking,” January 2019, Claudio Borio

https://www.bis.org/publ/work763.pdf

“Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?” November 2021, Claudio Borio

https://www.bis.org/publ/work982.pdf

“The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?” December 2012, Claudio Borio

https://www.bis.org/publ/work395.pdf

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:32) The Interplay Between Monetary Policy & Fiscal Policy

(09:50) High Levels Of Government Indebtedness As A Risk

(12:35) Just How Interest Rate Sensitive Is The Global Economy?

(15:56) The Financial Cycle

(24:12) The Two Inflationary Regimes

(36:45) Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy (Quantitative Easing & Quantitative Tightening)

(39:34) Liquidity In Sovereign Bond Markets

(46:13) Non-Bank Financial Sector Is "Rife With Hidden Leverage & Maturity Mismatches"

(50:56) Interest Rate Risk Within Banking System

(56:45) Concluding Thoughts On Debt & Inflation

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the false Bitcoin ETF headline that sent Bitcoin soaring to $30,000, before diving into the broader crypto price action over the week. We then discuss the continued bond market sell-off that has lead to one of the worst bond bear markets in U.S history. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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On today’s episode, Neal Berger Founder of Eagle’s View Capital Management joins the show for a discussion on navigating the uncertain year of 2023.

After launching his contrarian macro fund in 2021, and posting some of the best hedge fund returns in 2022 of 163%, Neal describes how 2023 has been a "challenging year" as his fund remains short stocks & bonds. Expecting the bond market sell-off to continue, Neil shares the path ahead for the rest of 2023 & into 2024. To hear all this & more, you’ll have to tune in! 

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:40) 2023 Has Been Challenging

(06:43) This Bond Market Sell-Off Isn't Over

(11:12) Higher Interest Rates Are Negative For Stocks

(14:12) Blockworks Research Ad

(14:59) The Ocean Of Liquidity Is In Reverse

(27:30) Looking Ahead To 2023/2024

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week Mike & Mark discuss the recent sentiment in crypto markets. We then dive into this weeks CPI print, the bond market & how recessionary headwinds could start to emerge in the coming months. To hear all this & more, you’ll have to tune in! 

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Digital Asset Summit 2024 | London: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.