Inflection Point

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On today’s episode, two hedge fund veterans Andy Constan & Nick Givanovic, Co-Founders of 2 Gray Beards join the show for a discussion on the recent bond market sell-off, the journey towards recession island in 2024 & the path ahead for equity weakness depending on the U.S Treasury's QRA at the end of October. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

Logan’s speech is worth reading: the “why” of this recent bond selloff matters importantly for the Fed: https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status/1711371085889864063

The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Michael Howell & Andy Constan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nZwrE_uNcg

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:28) How To End An Inflation Cycle

(06:43) A Wave Of U.S Treasury Issuance Is Coming To Market

(17:12) The Fed Will Be Happy With The Bond Market Sell-Off

(19:43) Blockworks Research Ad

(20:30) The U.S. Treasury Is Neutralizing The Fed's Quantitative Tightening

(27:48) Debt & Deficits

(35:11) Reacting To Geopolitical Uncertainty In Markets

(41:33) Preparing For Act 4 In A Move To Recession Island

(47:41) Inflation

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, Mike & Mark discuss the historic declines in the bond market with the long end sell-off continuing. We also discuss the blowout payrolls data, which under the surface may not be as hot as the headline suggests. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/01:15 Renewed Bond Bear Market

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:14) DAS London

(06:11) Sell-Off In The Bond Market

(11:24) Payrolls Come In Hot

(18:54) The Global Wrecking Ball: Oil, U.S Dollar & U.S Yield's

(24:36) Blockworks Research Ad

(25:24) Beware Of FOMO

(35:10) Diving Into The Payrolls Data

(37:25) Are Equities About To Crack?

(41:49) What Stops This Bond Market From Selling Off?

(44:27) The BoJ Steps In To Curb Yen Losses

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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On today’s episode, Leland Miller CEO of China Beige Book joins the show for a discussion on the death of China's old economic model.

With China's weaker than expected reopening & many expecting the imminent collapse of China, we invited Leland Miller to the show to give a data driven look into the Chinese economy, to help us understand what is really going on beneath the surface. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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(00:00) Introduction

(02:31) Thing Aren't Great In China, But It Isn't Collapsing

(10:20) China's Old Economic Model Is Dying

(14:05) Xi Jinping's Push To "Common Prosperity"

(20:59) Blockworks Research Ad

(21:46) Inflation & Deflation In China

(27:30) How China's Growth Impacts Market's

(32:46) China's Rippling Inflation Impact

(37:54) U.S & China Relations

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Mike and Mark tackle an explosive week of tremendous pain in the bond market alongside a continuing surge in oil prices. The pair consider the news surrounding potential Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, and Mark reminds listeners of his saying that "risk cannot be destroyed, it can only be transformed." Filmed on September 29, 2023.

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/01:15 Renewed Bond Bear Market

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(00:00) Introduction

(01:38) Renewed Bond Bear Market

(11:57) Oil Surges Again

(27:58) Blockworks Research Ad

(28:45) Bitcoin & Ether ETFs

(38:43) Sinister Saturday: Does Inflation Benefit The Elites?

(51:28) "Risk Is Like Energy: You Cannot Destroy It, You Can Only Transform It"

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Darius Dale, founder of 42Macro, returns to On The Margin to update Mike on his views on stocks, bonds, and the economy. Dale expects a true soft landing will be unlikely in the absence of a productivity boom, and, having correctly called the economic resiliency of the U.S. this year, he explains why he is now expecting a hard landing. Filmed on September 21, 2023.

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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(00:00) Introduction

(01:38) The Fed's New Dot Plot

(09:08) Darius's View On Interest Rates & Bond Yields

(20:50) Blockworks Research Ad

(21:37) The Sticky Inflation Narrative

(30:04) Darius' Outlook on Stocks & Bonds

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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(00:00) Introduction

(01:10) Fed Meeting

(17:06) Foreign Holdings Of Treasurys

(26:20) Blockworks Research Ad

(27:07) Market Views On Stocks and Bonds

(55:27) Crypto & Bitcoin

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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On today’s episode, Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital returns to On The Margin to share his view on the scorching summer rally in the U.S. dollar against other currencies. The surge in the dollar has been so fast and steady that Johnson expects a pullback, however, he warns that if the dollar continues to skyrocket then “heaven help the world.”

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:43) Where Is The Dollar Headed?

(11:59) Federal Reserve and Treasury Bond Prices

(21:19) Blockworks Research Ad

(22:07) Japan & China

(38:00) Inflation and Interest Rates

(44:20) Brent's Views on Recession Risk

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, Mike & Mark reflect on Blockworks' very own Permissionless II conference down in Austin after a busy week of panels, networking & most of all... Texas BBQ! We then take a deep dive into this weeks inflation data. Should we expect a second bout of inflation, or is disinflation still the consensus view? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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On todays episode, Andy Constan Founder of Damped Spring Macro Research & Bob Elliot CIO at Unlimited Funds join the show for a discussion on the emerging signs of a recessionary slowdown, the wave of U.S treasury issuance & it's impact on the long end of the bond market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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(00:00) Introduction

(01:11) Fading A Recession In 2023, But Are The Tides Turning?

(10:55) Central Banks Have Capitulated On Their Inflation Fight

(19:04) Blockworks Research Ad

(19:51) Understanding The Bond Market Repricing

(27:24) U.S Treasury Issuance Will Cause A Further Decline In Markets

(31:50) Inflation

(36:36) A Credit Crisis Is Unlikely

(51:03) How Have Hedge Funds Performed In 2023?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week Mike & Mark discuss the rise of bankruptcy filings in the U.S. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.