Inflection Point

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On todays episode Jesse Felder Founder of Felder Investment Research joins the show for a discussion on where we are in the current macro cycle and whether the second half of 2023 will be as robust as the first half of the year.

Questioning the soft landing narrative, Jesse expects a deterioration in economic data in the coming months at a time when sentiment is as bullish as ever. We also discuss the current state of the U.S fiscal situation, the BoJ's surprise yield curve control tweak & the path ahead for the U.S Dollar. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:07) Where Are We In The Cycle?

(07:37) Bear Market Rally, Or New Bull Market?

(11:47) Permissionless II Ad

(12:36) Sentiment & Valuations

(16:58) "At Some Point The Bond Market Takes Away The Money Printer"

(21:28) The Bank of Japan Surprises Markets

(31:15) Research Ad

(32:28) The Path Ahead For The Dollar

(36:41) While Monetary Policy Tightens, Fiscal Continues Spending

(38:45) Is The Inflation Fight Really Over?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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After many weeks apart, Mark & Mike reunite to discuss the top stories of the week. In the midst of earnings season, we take a look at the bull market of 2023 & discuss whether the rally has further to run, or not?

We also discuss the FOMC meeting which saw the Fed hike 25bps to the highest level in 22 years. With all the positive U.S economic data being released, will the Fed be able to achieve it's desired soft landing? To hear Mark & Mike's outlook on earnings, FOMC & the path forward for the second half of 2023, you'll have to tune in!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This is a special episode of Lightspeed, Blockworks' newest podcast, where we interview Balaji Srinivasan and Akshay BD to discuss crypto networks, sovereignty and the practicality of decentralization. If you only tune in to one episode of Lightspeed, this is it. We discuss if crypto is a bet on tech or financial collapse, blockchain infrastructure ideologies, Balaji's Network State, how to build effective communities, the future of open source, combatting tribalism and more! 

We're dropping this episode here as we think you'll want to add Lightspeed to your podcast lineup!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:01) Is Crypto a Bet on Tech or Financial Collapse?

(08:04) Appchains vs Monolithic vs Modular Ideology 

(13:07) Why Akshay Joined the Solana Community

(15:54) Permissionless Promo

(16:54) The Network State

(31:21) Market Depth and the Overton Window

(37:25) How to Build Effective Communities

(43:43) Three Ways to Align People

(50:11) How to Combat Tribalism

(01:03:54) Crypto has PMF, Regulation is Holding it Back

(01:14:57) Will Centralized Companies Embrace Open Source?

(01:17:28) Advice for Startup Founders

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Resources

Jito

jito.network

The Network State

https://thenetworkstate.com/

The Network State (Balaji, Estonia 2015)

https://teleport.org/blog/2015/07/the-network-state/

Software is Reorganizing the World (Balaji, 2011)

https://www.wired.com/2013/11/software-is-reorganizing-the-world-and-cloud-formations-could-lead-to-physical-nations/

The Secret Document That Transformed China

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2012/01/20/145360447/the-secret-document-that-transformed-china

SuperTeam

https://superteam.fun/

https://twitter.com/SuperteamDAO

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Disclaimers:

Lightspeed was kickstarted by a grant from the Solana Foundation.

Nothing said on Lightspeed is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Mert, Garrett and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

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On today's episode of On The Margin, Jim Bianco Founder of Bianco Research LLC joins the show to break down Powell's comments after the Fed raises rates 25bps to a 22-year high. Will this rate hike mark the end of the Fed's hiking cycle, or could we see a resurgence in inflation as month over month base effects begin to impact the year over year headline CPI number. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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With Mike & Mark out, Jack Farley of the Forward Guidance podcast joins Blockworks' very own newsletter writer Byron Gilliam for a wide raging discussion on the top stories of the week.

With the recent Ripple vs SEC ruling, we discuss what impact this has for not only Ripple, but the crypto industry more broadly as many view this as a big win for the industry. We then dive deep into earnings with a number of companies reporting this week, and many more reporting next week. Will the big tech led bull run continue, or is this new bull market approaching a mania phase? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Alfonso Peccatiello, founder of The Macro Compass, returns to Forward Guidance to discuss why there's no U.S. recession as of yet, how long is the lag of rate hikes' effect on the economy, and why bonds haven't performed well despite a rapid fall in inflation. Jack and Alfonso debate whether central banks print money, and Alfonso poses a spirited challenge to the predictive power of liquidity (bank reserves) on risk assets. Filmed on July 12, 2023.

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Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:33) The Recession That Didn't Show Up

(11:48) How Big Is The Tightening of Credit Availability?

(20:33) Is Quantitive Easing (QE) "Money Printing"? Jack & Alf Debate

(30:12) Money Printing Type #1: Fiscal Deficits

(39:13) Money Printing Type #2: Bank Lending

(47:20) Money Printing Type #3: Non-Bank Lending

(50:37) Can "Liquidity" Explain Market Returns? Alf Says No!

(01:02:01) Why Haven't Bonds Performed As Inflation Has Fallen?

(01:07:51) When Recession?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance or On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

With Mike out, Jack Farley of the Forward Guidance podcast fills in to guest-host this episode. Mark and Jack talk about everything from the Knights Templar to the potential approval of Blackrock's spot Bitcoin ETF.

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https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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On todays episode Nick Glinsman Co-Founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners joins the show for a discussion on the current global macro outlook in 2023 as we enter the second half of the year.

While central banks continue to fight fiscal driven inflation using monetary policy, Nick argues that financial conditions are still too loose as markets continue to rally, credit remains contained & most importantly the labor market remains near record low unemployment. After taking us on a global tour of the inflation situation in the U.S, U.K & Europe Nick shares why China is actually battling deflation, and what the path ahead for the PBOC could look like. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

Malmgren Institute LLC: https://d5d0c2-2.myshopify.com/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:33) The Labour Market Remains Strong... For Now

(09:53) Quantitative Tightening & Liquidity

(15:09) Permissionless II Ad

(15:58) The Fed's Stuck Between A Rock & A Hard Place

(16:40) An Update On The March Banking Turmoil

(22:00) The Power Of Fiscal Policy

(23:54) Debt, Demographics & Deglobalization

(28:57) Is The UK Economy In Crisis?

(38:35) Research Ad

(39:24) Further Risks For Private Equity?

(41:04) Why Is China Battling Deflation

(51:44) Is China's Liquidity Impulse Really Stimulative?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark returns to the weekly roundup after a two week hiatus! We dive straight into the biggest story of the week as Larry Fink took to the airwaves with a switched stance on Bitcoin weeks after BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, filed for their highly anticipated spot Bitcoin ETF. We discuss the implications of a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved, and in Mark's own words, it would be a "big big deal". To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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On today's episode of On The Margin, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy joins the show for a discussion on the biggest driver of markets over the past 3 years... inflation.

Early to the inflation call in 2020/2021, Lyn walks through both the cyclical vs structural outlook for inflation in 2023 & beyond. Lyn walks through the rise of fiscal dominance and attempts to answer the question will high interest rates fix high inflation? To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Referenced In The Show:

Do High Interest Rates Fix High Inflation? https://www.lynalden.com/inflation-vs-interest-rates/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:50) Inflation

(06:18) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance

(13:14) Cyclical vs Secular Inflation

(15:33) Permissionless II Ad

(16:21) Inflation Today vs The 1940's

(28:14) Research Ad

(29:04) What Is The End Game?

(36:55) Investing In This Environment

(41:42) Housing & Real Estate

(45:57) How Changing Technology Drove The Evolution Of Money

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.