Inflection Point

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the global liquidity picture and if the Fed hiking cycle is over as optimism emerges within markets. We also go on to discuss the major rally & other A.I related equities as Nvidia beat on their recent earnings release. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On The Margin, Luke Gromen Founder & President of Forest for the Trees (FFTT) joins the show for a discussion on the end game for the Fed.

After highlighting many of the structural shifts underpinning the current monetary system over the past few years, Luke lays out his thesis on the intersection between peak cheap energy and the U.S dollar system. Luke goes on to walk through how the Fed will be forced to manage these dynamics with inflation above trend and record high debt to GDP levels. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:15) Have We Reached Peak Cheap Energy?

(07:58) Permissionless II Ad

(08:46) Oil Is The Real Economic Discount Rate

(13:06) Central Banks Have Stoped Buying U.S Treasurys

(19:03) What's The End Game For The Fed?

(27:38) Why The U.S Is Not Like Japan

(32:12) Research Ad

(33:02) Luke's Macro Outlook For 2023

(40:29) Approaching A "Debt Death Spiral"

(42:44) Gold & Bitcoin

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the outlook for markets at a moment of uncertainty for both bulls & bears. With the U.S debt ceiling looming, consensus still expecting a recession & the market beginning to price a pause in the Fed's tightening cycle, Mark shares his outlook throughout the rest of the year. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike McGlone Senior Macro Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence joins the show for a discussion on the looming debt ceiling, why deflation (not inflation) is ahead and his outlook for both commodities & hard asset's, such as Gold & Bitcoin.

Expecting a recession in 2023, Mike walks through the global slowdown taking place, and shares insights into how the commodity markets are signalling declining liquidity & recessionary headwinds. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMAm2S1M_IU

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Use code PODS20 to get 20% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

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Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(00:17) The Debt Ceiling Looms, What Next?

(05:41) We Are Heading Towards Deflation

(09:30) Mike's Outlook On Markets

(14:28) Have Higher Interest Rates Been Felt Yet?

(19:11) Research Ad

(20:00) The Gold Bull Market Is Here

(23:49) Is De-Dollarization Real?

(30:18) Why Are Hedge Funds Record Short Treasury Bonds?

(32:09) Deflation Deflation Deflation... "We're All Turning Japanese"

(35:48) Permissionless II Ad

(36:36) Is There A Structural Case For Inflation?

(45:00) Mike's Macro Framework

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week Mike & Mark discuss wether the effect of rising interest rates have really been felt yet, this weeks CPI print and why we should prepare for deflation throughout 2023, not inflation. As inflation continues on it's downward trajectory, how will this impact the Fed's reaction function, the economy & markets? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bMAm2S1M_IU

Where Are We In The Macro Cycle? | Bob Elliott & Cameron Dawson: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e4u5-GMkoiM&t=584s

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

SPECIAL EPISODE: This is an episode of Blockworks' new podcast called 1000x! 1000x is a crypto markets podcast hosted by professional traders Avi Felman and Jonah Van Bourg that is for traders by traders (or anyone interested in trading/markets).

In this episode, Avi and Jonah discuss Bitcoin's outlook and recent meme coin mania. We start with a discussion on Bitcoin and if bank failures are priced in, what it will take for BTC to break past the 30K range and if institutions are buying. Avi and Jonah then debate if we'll ever see 2021s perfect storm again. Meme coins are pumping, blockspace demand is saturated, and market sentiment is shifting. Is this a market turning point or just a short-term phenomenon? Tune in to find out!

We'll drop a new 1000x episode on Empire's RSS feed and the 1000x YouTube channel every two weeks. Hit the links below and give us a follow!

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:32) Are Bank Failures Priced In?

(07:31) The Impact of a Potential US Default

(12:51) Repeating 2021’s Perfect Storm

(18:03) Meme Mania: Why You Should Pay Attention

(31:30) Deflationary ETH and Blockspace Fee Generation

(36:34) BTC Miner Revenue and BRC-20s

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Follow Jonah: https://twitter.com/jvb_xyz

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Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/3FuSarX

Subscribe on Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mv4frfv7

Subscribe on Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/wbaypprw

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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Resources:

Golden Tree

https://www.goldentree.com/

Cumberland

https://cumberland.io/

BRC-20.io

https://brc-20.io/

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

On today's episode of On The Margin, Bob Elliott Co-Founder & CIO at Unlimited Funds & Cameron Dawson CIO at NewEdge Wealth join the show for a discussion on where are we in the current macro cycle.

On the back of a better than expected earnings week, continued banking turmoil and a perceived hawkish FOMC meeting, Bob and Cameron share their thoughts on the path ahead for 2023 as the tightening cycle has yet to fully ripple through the economy and markets. Expecting "more pain to come", Bob and Cameron see the market correction and recession concerns to be immaterial... so far. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

https://twitter.com/LizYoungStrat/status/1654509470720950273

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:42) The Bond Market Is The Smart Money, Or Is It?

(05:06) The Have Your Cake & Eat It Too Trade... Tech

(10:51) Research Ad

(11:04) Inflation Is A New Dynamic For Markets

(14:01) Can The Fed Continue Raising Rates Amidst Banking Turmoil?

(17:40) There Won't Be A Pivot Without Some Pain

(27:44) Permissionless

(28:28) Breaking Down Recent Earnings

(35:33) The A.I Earnings Theme

(44:22) What To Expect Throughout 2023

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week Mike & Mark discuss the collapse of First Republic Bank and the subsequent acquisition by JP Morgan. Even with an FOMC meeting where the Fed raised an expected 25bp, regional bank headwinds remained the focus as certain bank equities fell sharply and First Republic Bank was acquired in a very favourable deal between the FDIC & JP Morgan. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity

Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of On The Margin, Jan Van Eck CEO of VanEck joins the show for a discussion on the "new paradigm" markets find themselves in and how this could be a catalyst for a bull market in hard assets.

As investors tackle inflation, rising rates and structural demographic shifts in 2023, Jan explores how investors can approach diversifying their portfolios. With Bitcoin rallying 70%+ and Gold boasting a 13%+ return year to date, are we in a new bull market for safe haven hard assets? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Lightspeed Podcast Opportunity

Click here to learn more about Blockworks' upcoming Lightspeed podcast and submit an application to be one of our hosts! http://bit.ly/40J0jCx

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

—

Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) The Origins of Van Eck

(05:21) Re-thinking The Banking System

(12:47) Blockworks Research

(13:36) A New Paradigm For Markets

(20:48) Now Is The Time To Own Gold & Bitcoin

(23:39) Is De-dollarization Real

(29:27) Permissionless

(30:10) Entering A Hard Asset Bull Market

(36:32) Key Themes For The Decade Ahead

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mike & Mark discuss the continued banking panic after First Republic Bank lost around $100 Billion in deposits & saw its stock plunge over 95%. We then discuss the recent price action in the crypto market with Bitcoin hovering around $30,000 as some OG crypto whales begin moving coins in addresses that haven't seen activity in years. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

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Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/

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Use code MARGIN10 to get 10% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.