Inflection Point

On today's episode of On the Margin, David Rosenberg Founder and President of Rosenberg Research joins the show to answer the question: "Have we hit the bear market low?".

We start with David's view that the market is still overpriced and the overwhelming odds of a recession in 2023. He explains why the yield curve is the most important variable, what to watch in the bond market and how a consumer default cycle will play out. We then finish the discussion on supply-side inflation, why David expects deflation is on the horizon and what to expect next!

--

Follow David: https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

--

Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency which outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

--

Referenced In The Show:

Rosenberg Research

https://www.rosenbergresearch.com/

Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises

https://www.amazon.com/Manias-Panics-Crashes-History-Financial/dp/1137525754

Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation

https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/91360.Devil_Take_the_Hindmost

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:16) Have We Hit The Bear Market Low?

(11:30) Will The Fed Break The Market?

(21:10) What Does A Default Cycle Look Like?

(29:26) When Will Reality Set In For Consumers?

(37:26) Circle Ad

(38:46) Has J Powell Over-Tightened?

(44:54) Supply-Driven Inflation

(52:54) Which Assets Get Bid First In A Recovery?

(1:02:28) The US Outlook

(1:05:39) People Don’t Learn From History

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the recent market rally and dive into wether this is a new bull cycle, or a classic bear market rally. We then discuss the Alameda venture capital portfolio that was released by the FT walking through the $5.4 Billion of investments on the excel spread sheet. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

--

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

--

This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Ben Hunt Author of Epsilon Theory & Doomberg, everyones favorite green chicken join the show to discuss "The Story Arc of SBF, FTX & Alameda".

One month ago saw the collapse of SBF's crypto empire as FTX filed for bankruptcy. Ben & Doomberg discuss the ties between SBFs exchange FTX and trading firm Alameda Research. We then look into the use of the FTT token and how SBF was able to raise venture capital money at unrealistic valuations. Was SBF negligent in this situation, or did he intentionally commit fraud? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

--

Follow Ben: https://twitter.com/EpsilonTheory

Follow Doomberg: https://twitter.com/DoombergT

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

--

Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

--

Referenced In The Show:

The MacGuffin, Part 2: The Story Arc of SBF and FTX: https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-macguffin-part-2-the-story-arc-of-sbf-and-ftx/ 

The MacGuffin, Part 1: The Corrupt Crypto ‘Revolution’: https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-macguffin-part-1/ 

How Sam Bankman-Fried’s Crypto Empire Collapsed: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/14/technology/ftx-sam-bankman-fried-crypto-bankruptcy.html

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:36) The MacGuffin: The Story Arc of SBF & FTX

(14:07) The FTX Bankruptcy & The Role of FTT

(18:09) The Mechanics of Rehypothecation

(27:25) Negligence or Criminality?

(35:35) Circle Ad

(36:55) How Much Political & Media Power Did SBF Buy?

(42:50) The New York Times Puff Piece

(49:59) The Role of Investors, Media & Regulators In The FTX Fallout

(56:00) The Golden Age of Fraud

(1:02:02) Final Thoughts

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike are joined by special guest Joseph Wang for a deep dive on the top stories of the week. SBF spoke at the New York Times Dealbook summit so we share our thoughts on that interview.

We then move on to Powell's speech at the Brookings Institution where he hinted at a 50bp rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. Market's rallied after the speech as the expected a more dovish stance from the Fed going forward. What is the outlook for inflation, the job market and what Powell is signalling to the market into 2023? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

--

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Joseph: https://twitter.com/FedGuy12

Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

--

This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin , you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Recorded November 30th

This conversation is from a Twitter spaces with Erik Voorhees moments after SBF gave his interview with Andrew Ross Sorkin at the New York Times DealBook summit.

Listen On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3B4xe9H

Listen On Apple: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM

—

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Erik: https://twitter.com/ErikVoorhees

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Bob Elliott CIO of Unlimited Funds joins the show to discuss everything happening in markets right now. Prior to founding Unlimited, Bob was a Senior Investment Executive at Bridgewater Associates where he served on the Investment Committee and created investment strategies, many of which were used in the flagship Pure Alpha fund.

Having studied previous macroeconomic cycles, Bob states "this is a textbook inflationary cycle". Bob goes on to discuss the new higher rate environment we are in compared to the last decade, what it means for the economy and which assets will be perform best, or worst, in this environment.

Finally, Bob takes his years of experience investing in private markets to explain how "the era of cheap money" will effect those private market valuations into 2023 and beyond. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

--

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Bob: https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

--

Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

--

This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://onthemargin.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

--

Referenced In The Show:

The Economic Organization of a P.O.W. Camp: http://icm.clsbe.lisboa.ucp.pt/docentes/url/jcn/ie2/0POWCamp.pdf

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(05:08) The Economic Organization of a P.O.W. Camp

(09:50) This Inflationary Cycle Is No Different Than Previous Cycles Throughout History

(15:47) Circle Ad

(17:07) Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle

(23:31) Why Did The Fed Miss inflation?

(29:48) The Role of 60/40 In 2022

(39:08) What Is Happening In Private Markets?

(42:31) "The Era of Cheap Money Is Over"

(50:50) Curve Ad

(52:06) Investing In Venture Capital During A Bull Market

(1:02:13) The FTX Fallout

(1:10:57) What To Expect Into 2023

(1:16:30) Final Thoughts

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Michael and Mark take a break today for the Thanksgiving holiday, and welcome Jack Farley from Forward Guidance onto the podcast for a special cross-over episode. This episode from Forward Guidance is with William White, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute, and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Federal Reserve.

They discuss why economic forecasts are so often wrong, how the world can escape the “debt trap,” and how central bankers face a trade-off between price stability (low inflation) and financial stability.

William White’s work can be found here: https://williamwhite.ca/

Joseph Wang’s writings can be found here: https://fedguy.com/

--

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv

Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki

Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj

__

Academic papers referenced:

"Where Has All the Liquidity Gone?" by Raghuram Rajan and Viral Acharya: https://rb.gy/n47fah

"Why Do We Think That Inflation Expectations Matter for Inflation? (And Should We?)" by Jeremy Rudd: https://rb.gy/4wjzx8

"Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" by Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace: https://rb.gy/53kikq

William White's recent presentation on the future of policy modelling:

https://rb.gy/robwk2

--

This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/blockworks_on_the_margin, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

--

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

https://rb.gy/5weeyw

Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter:

https://rb.gy/feusos

Find out more about the Blockworks video editor role here: https://blockworks.co/careers/

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:09) Looking Back At 2022

(04:20) Quantitative Tightening (QT) is Causing Disruptions

(11:55) "The Central Bankers Have Made A Profound Ontological Error"

(23:17) Does Fed Chair Jay Powell Pay Attention To Economic Models?

(25:25) Algorand Ad

(27:09) If Inflation Is Supply-Side Driven, What Should Central Bankers Do?

(40:43) The Debt Trap

(46:04) Powell Is Not Worried About a Recession - Is This A Mistake?

(54:39) Getting Out Of The Debt Trap

(58:36) The Fed Has Lost A Lot Of Money

(01:04:22) A Global Economic Slowdown is Here

(01:09:52) Crypto Contagion and the Fall of FTX

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On the Margin or Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Grant Williams & Pippa Malmgren join the show for a discussion of "the end of magical thinking".

"The end of magical thinking", a term phrased by Grant to describe the illusion cheap money allowed for in 2020/21 as markets ignored fundamental valuations and speculation became rampant. Now with inflation, and the Fed tightening at their fastest rate in 40 years to fight inflation, reality has set back in for investors and now we must take a hard look in the mirror to understand what the best ways to protect our portfolios is in this environment.

--

Follow Grant: https://twitter.com/ttmygh

Follow Pippa: https://twitter.com/DrPippaM

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

--

Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

--

Referenced In The Show:

Why Software Is Eating the World: https://a16z.com/2011/08/20/why-software-is-eating-the-world/

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:53) The End of Magical Thinking

(14:41) The End of Globalization

(17:05) Human Nature Never Changes

(26:43) Why Software Is Eating the World... Or Is It?

(38:56) Circle Ad

(40:16) The Fallout of The FTX Collapse

(52:01) The Rules of The Game Have Changed

(58:14) Navigating This New Environment

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week, Mark & Mike discuss the continued fallout of FTX. Genesis, the crypto prime broker, ran into liquidity issues during the week causing many yield providing platforms to reduce their yields to 0%. We discuss what this could mean for CeFi lending providers, and who it could effect next. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

--

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Mark: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

--

This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://onthemargin.link/curve, you’ll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply.

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Juliette Declercq Founder of JDI Research joins the show for a discussion on the Fed tightening cycle.

Contrary to many analysts, Juliette expects a soft landing in 2023 with the labor market remaining resilient as the Fed continues tightening. Juliette makes the case that inflation will continue to roll over throughout 2022 and into 2023, continuing the recent CPI & PPI prints that beat analyst expectations. To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!

--

Follow Juliette: https://twitter.com/juliettejdi

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

--

Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:31) Preparing For A Soft Landing

(04:54) Inflation

(09:46) Progressing Through The Tightening Cycle

(13:52) Powell Channeling His Inner Volcke

(17:09) The Housing Market

(23:16) Circle Ad

(24:36) The Bullwhip Effect

(31:33) Have We Reached A Bottom In Stocks?

(44:06) Inflation In The US vs Europe

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.