Inflection Point

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Julian Brigden Co-founder of Macro Intelligence 2 Partners for a discussion on the hyper-financialization of the U.S economy, and how that trend may now be in reverse.

Looking back at historic periods of both monetary and fiscal policy being enacted together, Julian was able to identify the trend of inflation at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. Since positioning for the equity market correction towards the back end of 2021, Julian shares his thoughts on the current state of markets. Are equity markets oversold, or does this bear market have further to go? What cracks are starting to form in the housing market? Is this the end of hyper-financialization and is de-globalization at a tipping point? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

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Referenced In The Show:

How Bad Will the German Recession Be?

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) A Shift In Inflation

(13:09) CEO Compensation

(20:23) The Housing Market

(33:05) Circle Ad

(34:25) Powell Is Channeling His Inner Volcker

(39:54) What Is Happening In Europe?

(46:27) We Are At A Tipping Point

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Recorded on Monday 26th: Before the BoE's Gilt announcement

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Mike McGlone Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg joins the the show for a wide ranging discussion. As the U.S Dollar continues rising, markets are beginning to crack. Is there any end in sight for economies around the world?

We also discuss what is happening in energy, commodity and crypto markets. How will oil perform ahead of mid term elections in the U.S? Is gold set for a move higher? And have crypto markets felt enough pain or is more to come? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:33) What Is Happening With The British Pound?

(14:32) Gasoline & Biden's Approval Rating

(17:41) How Energy Is Effecting Global Currencies

(20:14) Circle Ad

(21:33) The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball

(31:02) Gold

(36:32) Which Countries Are Positioned To Outperform?

(42:05) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Doomberg, everyones favorite green chicken, joins the the show for an update on the European energy crisis.

After making bold claims throughout 2021 on the global energy situation, and particularly in Europe, Doomberg provides an update on the state of the European energy crisis. How severe will the impact of high energy prices be for Europe ahead of winter, particularly global manufacturing hubs such as Germany? Finally, Doomberg discusses the effect of energy on currencies around the world, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:57) Doomberg's Core Energy Thesis

(07:01) The Energy Situation In Europe

(10:15) The Law of Antilogic

(13:55) Energy Price Controls

(17:18) How Energy Is Effecting Currencies

(19:41) The Dollar Wrecking Ball

(22:52) Circle Ad

(24:13) Powell Will Hike Until Something Breaks

(27:52) The BoJ Will Not Be Bullied

(30:44) What Is Happening In China?

(35:58) Entering A Period of Stagflation

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

As central banks around the world further increased interest rates, everyone looked to the most important central bank in markets, and that's the Fed. Powell raised by an expected 75bp on Wednesday, signalling "it will be enough". Markets were confused after the initial announcement, but selling increased hours after the announcement, not holding up until Friday's session. Are markets bracing for a hard landing? To find out, you'll just have to tune in!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Jack Farley, friend of the show and Host of another Blockworks podcast “Forward Guidance”, joins the show for a discussion on the central banking super bowl.

As over 20 central banks around the world decide their key policy rates this week, including the Fed, BoE & SNB, we invited Jack to the show to share his thoughts on what this means for equities, bonds & most importantly inflation. In Jack’s mind, there was no doubt the Fed was “behind the curve”, but are they also “looking in the rear view mirror?” as they aim to slay the inflation dragon? To find out, you’ll just have to tune in!

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Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

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Referenced In The Show:

Powell Won't Stop "Until The Job Is Done" | Danielle DiMartino Booth: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1JZdcUsIivVSuIuF7q4Q7v?si=196c1d9a9b2f496b 

The Bear Market Has Only Just Begun | Ted Oakley: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2jx2I7cwDREUXAWDfdWUtX?si=0a00efc3ac3a48b5 

Is a Global Recession Imminent? https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/brief/global-recession

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:43) The Superbowl of Central Banking

(02:25) Slowing Growth & Soaring Inflation

(03:40) Are We Heading For A Soft Landing?

(11:25) Is The Fed Looking In The Rear View Mirror?

(16:15) Is Inflation a Psychological or a Monetary Phenomenon?

(18:15) Signs of Liquidity Stress In The Treasury Market

(23:50) IMF: Is a Global Recession Imminent?

(24:50) Circle Ad

(26:10) Has Inflation Peaked?

(35:40) Stanley Druckenmiller Warns There Is A “High Probability” The Stock Market Will Be “Flat” For A Decade

(37:32) What To Expect Ahead of FOMC?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

After uniting at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit, Mike & Mark are back to reflect on the conference and dive into the top stories of the week.

Markets had their biggest one day sell-off in almost 2 years due to a higher than expected inflation print, FedEX CEO Raj Subramaniam warns of a "worldwide recession" and the Ethereum merge is successfully deployed. Luckily Mike & Mark are on hand to break it all down, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist of Quill Intelligence joins the show for a discussion on the Fed and the policy decisions they face throughout 2022 & into 2023.

Last time Danielle joined the show, it was January, at the beginning of the year, as it had become clear the Fed stayed too loose, for too long. In that conversation, we discussed what Fed rate hikes would mean for the economy, markets, inflation & housing. Now, nine months later, it felt right to invite Danielle back to the show to reflect on the past year from a former Fed insider, and look forward for the rest of the year as Powell tries to reiterate his hawkish stance to the markets. Will they finally get the message? Is this the end of the Fed put? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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Circle’s USDC is one of the most trusted and widely used stablecoins in the digital asset industry. Check out their Transparency Hub at circle.com/transparency that outlines everything from links to USDC weekly reserve reports, monthly attestations, and blog posts written by their executive team highlighting how and why USDC was built the way it is.

--

(00:00) Introduction

(02:56) The "Fed Put"

(05:56) Jerome Powell's Paul Volcker Moment

(07:31) What To Expect Ahead of the Next FOMC Meeting

(09:22) Liz Truss's Energy Bailout Plan

(11:32) Which Leading Indicators Should You Follow?

(14:47) Housing IS The Business Cycle

(20:30) Quiet Quitting & Work From Home

(25:49) Circle Ad

(27:09) What Is Happening in the Labor Market?

(34:20) Looking Forward, What To Expect Throughout 2022?

(39:43) The Need For A Modern Day G.I. Bill

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss one of the biggest news stories in crypto markets as investors await one of the most anticipated events in years, the Ethereum merge.

As many grapple with the bull & bear case for the Eth merge, Mark & Mike discuss how they see the merge playing out from their perspective. Could this be a classic case of Buy the Rumor, Sell the News? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today's episode of "On the Margin", Dario Perkins MD of global macro at TS Lombard joins the show for a discussion on the new macro supercycle.

As de-globilization increasingly becomes one of the key forces driving markets, Dario walks through one of his recent pieces titled "The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks". Drawing historical comparisons between today's economy with both the 1940's & 1970's, Dario describes the setup we now have for a new macro regime, and how central banks are viewing this current environment. 

This episode is full of insights you can't afford to miss to help navigate this new macro regime, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

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Referenced In The Show: 

Dario Perkins: Watch Out for Another 20% Drop in Equities: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7GSVdwJVQIje5mv1wuUefw?si=638b3f549e32414e 

Capital Wars, Liquidity & The Rise of China | Michael Howell: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5wNLkFpnxSHjnlcgPf4siP?si=a44b7638fcc142ea

The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks: https://blogs.tslombard.com/the-nightmare-scenario-for-central-banks 

Euro, Stocks Tumble as Russia Pulls Rug on Gas Supplies: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-04/intensifying-energy-shock-to-weigh-on-euro-test-ecb-on-rates?srnd=premium-europe

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:20) The Nightmare Scenario For Central Banks

(03:54) Comparisons Between The 1940's & 1970's

(07:52) The New Macro Supercycle

(13:32) Fake Recession, Fake Business Cycle

(19:52) Inflation, Europe & Natural Gas

(22:36) Big Tech/FAANG: A Return To Value?

(26:22) The Cost of Living Crisis

(29:53) Avoiding A Euro Crisis 2.0

(33:08) The Role of Central Banks

(41:42) Embracing Higher Volatility

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mark returns on this episode of the round up, and after briefly discussing the matter with Jack last week, I decided to check in with Mark on his thoughts on the US Bond Market. We transition then into talking about the housing market, the soaring fixed mortgage rates, and the lag in home prices that follows. Next I get Mark's thoughts on the recent bear rally, before closing out our round up with mixed feelings on the recent decision about student debt forgiveness.

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Attend DAS, crypto and macro’s favorite institutional conference: http://digitalassetsummit.co/ - Use code MIKE250 to get $250 off tickets

Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.