Either Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is telling porkies, or he’s the most out-of-the-loop person in Wellington. His claim that there’s “no talk” of rolling Chris Luxon is complete nonsense. There is talk—serious talk. I can tell you for a fact that senior National Party ministers believe Luxon can’t continue in the job. MPs are actively discussing whether to pull the pin and replace him. If they do, the most likely successor is Chris Bishop. But—and this is crucial—they haven’t decided to do it yet. Why? Because it’s risky. Rolling a sitting Prime Minister has only happened once before, with Jim Bolger, and that didn’t end well. MPs know that sticking with Luxon might pay off if the economy improves next year. Better economic conditions could lift National’s polling and save seats currently at risk. But there’s a flip side: if the polls don’t recover, Luxon’s unpopularity could drag National down further. Like it or not, modern elections are presidential in style—voters focus on who they want as Prime Minister. Jacinda Ardern boosted Labour’s vote in 2017. Luxon is part of why National’s vote has fallen. Would Chris Bishop do better? Maybe. But it’s a guess. He could also do worse. And the instability of rolling a sitting PM could make things even worse for National. So MPs face two high-risk options: stick with an unpopular leader or gamble on an unproven one. It’s a call I wouldn’t want to make—but they’re making it right now. It may never happen, but trust me: the talk is real.

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