These polls that keep showing Labour ahead of National are a sign of how crap the economy is.

Up until a few weeks ago, I was ignoring polls because Labour didn't have any policy. Labour was ahead, but it didn't have any policy.

I thought, well this is a protest vote. They're pissed at National for not fixing the mess Labour left behind.

But the voters are not stupid. And they're voting for the no-policy party as a protest, not because they'd actually vote for them.

But now, Labour has some policies - albeit three. Including the contentious capital gains tax. And they will love how this has played for them so far, because it hasn't actually been a terrible mess.

So now that Labour has more policies, confirming they are indeed the party of more tax and more spend, the numbers should be turning, but they're not.

The latest IPSOS poll shows voters trust Labour more on the economy, the cost of living - and basically everything but foreign affairs and law and order. And foreign affairs is Winston Peters!

The economy should turn around - green shoots next year, etc, etc. But people aren't feeling that yet.

So National's strategy of wait and hope till November next year is looking riskier by the day.

As for the leadership question - well, Jacinda didn't teach us much about that. But  what we did learn from her is that you can switch leaders really close to an election day and not crash your vote. In fact, you can actually increase it.

So an 11th hour switch to Stanford or Bish or whoever will remain a live option right up till D-day.

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