Sign up to save your podcasts
Or
Share Allen B. Downey, "Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions" (U Chicago Press, 2023)
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Or
Allen B. Downey, "Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions" (U Chicago Press, 2023)
Statistics are everywhere: in news reports, at the doctor's office, and in every sort of forecast, from the stock market to the weather. Blogger, teacher, and computer scientist Allen B. Downey knows well that people have an innate ability both to understand statistics and to be fooled by them. As he makes clear in this accessible introduction to statistical thinking, the stakes are big. Simple misunderstandings have led to incorrect medical prognoses, underestimated the likelihood of large earthquakes, hindered social justice efforts, and resulted in dubious policy decisions. There are right and wrong ways to look at numbers, and Downey will help you see which are which.
Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions (University of Chicago Press, 2023) uses real data to delve into real examples with real consequences, drawing on cases from health campaigns, political movements, chess rankings, and more. He lays out common pitfalls--like the base rate fallacy, length-biased sampling, and Simpson's paradox--and shines a light on what we learn when we interpret data correctly, and what goes wrong when we don't. Using data visualizations instead of equations, he builds understanding from the basics to help you recognize errors, whether in your own thinking or in media reports. Even if you have never studied statistics--or if you have and forgot everything you learned--this book will offer new insight into the methods and measurements that help us understand the world.
Allen B. Downey is a curriculum designer at the online learning company Brilliant and professor emeritus of computer science at Olin College.
Gregory McNiff is a Managing Director in the New York office of the Blueshirt Group, an IR firm focused on technology. Greg holds an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, an M. Litt. in Shakespeare Studies from the University of St. Andrews and a B.A. in Classical Languages from Columbia University.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/mathematics
View all episodes
By Marshall Poe
4.8
2525 ratings
Statistics are everywhere: in news reports, at the doctor's office, and in every sort of forecast, from the stock market to the weather. Blogger, teacher, and computer scientist Allen B. Downey knows well that people have an innate ability both to understand statistics and to be fooled by them. As he makes clear in this accessible introduction to statistical thinking, the stakes are big. Simple misunderstandings have led to incorrect medical prognoses, underestimated the likelihood of large earthquakes, hindered social justice efforts, and resulted in dubious policy decisions. There are right and wrong ways to look at numbers, and Downey will help you see which are which.
Probably Overthinking It: How to Use Data to Answer Questions, Avoid Statistical Traps, and Make Better Decisions (University of Chicago Press, 2023) uses real data to delve into real examples with real consequences, drawing on cases from health campaigns, political movements, chess rankings, and more. He lays out common pitfalls--like the base rate fallacy, length-biased sampling, and Simpson's paradox--and shines a light on what we learn when we interpret data correctly, and what goes wrong when we don't. Using data visualizations instead of equations, he builds understanding from the basics to help you recognize errors, whether in your own thinking or in media reports. Even if you have never studied statistics--or if you have and forgot everything you learned--this book will offer new insight into the methods and measurements that help us understand the world.
Allen B. Downey is a curriculum designer at the online learning company Brilliant and professor emeritus of computer science at Olin College.
Gregory McNiff is a Managing Director in the New York office of the Blueshirt Group, an IR firm focused on technology. Greg holds an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, an M. Litt. in Shakespeare Studies from the University of St. Andrews and a B.A. in Classical Languages from Columbia University.
Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/mathematics
More shows like New Books in Mathematics
View all
Radiolab
43,862 Listeners
Freakonomics Radio
32,044 Listeners
Hidden Brain
43,604 Listeners
Wait Wait... Don't Tell Me!
38,914 Listeners
The Partially Examined Life Philosophy Podcast
2,106 Listeners
New Books in Philosophy
112 Listeners
In Our Time
5,544 Listeners
New Books in History
210 Listeners
New Books in Military History
162 Listeners
New Books in Political Science
62 Listeners
New Books in Economics
29 Listeners
Conversations with Tyler
2,456 Listeners
New Books in Psychoanalysis
188 Listeners
Big Picture Science
939 Listeners
New Books in African American Studies
163 Listeners
New Books in Environmental Studies
25 Listeners
New Books in Native American Studies
104 Listeners
New Books in Intellectual History
60 Listeners
The Quanta Podcast
531 Listeners
Science Vs
12,194 Listeners
Science Friday
6,404 Listeners
Sean Carroll's Mindscape: Science, Society, Philosophy, Culture, Arts, and Ideas
4,168 Listeners
Daniel and Kelly’s Extraordinary Universe
2,346 Listeners
Theories of Everything with Curt Jaimungal
30 Listeners
People I (Mostly) Admire
2,079 Listeners