Forward Guidance

By Blockworks

The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest mi... more

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FAQs about Forward Guidance:

How many episodes does Forward Guidance have?

The podcast currently has 487 episodes available.

Forward Guidance episodes:

August 13, 2023 Fitch's U.S Debt Downgrade Was Justified | Danielle DiMartino Booth
Danielle DiMartino Booth CEO & Chief Strategist, QI Research joins Forward Guidance for a special episode from Camp Kotok.

We discuss the past 3 years in both the economy and markets, Fitch's recent AAA downgrade on U.S debt & the lingering stress in commercial real estate. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidance
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Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Danielle on Twitter https://twitter.com/DiMartinoBooth
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Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timecodes:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:51) Fitch's AAA Debt Downgrade
(07:00) S&P's Debt Downgrade vs Fitch's Debt Downgrade
(11:41) We Took MMT On A Test Drive & It Crashed Into The Wall
(15:06) The Path Ahead For U.S Debt Issuance
(19:58) Commercial Real Estate
(23:19) Where Are We In The Cycle?
(26:25) Oppenheimer Or Barbie?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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28min
August 12, 2023 Rate Cuts May Not End Fed's Quantitative Tightening | Former Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart
Dennis Lockhart, Former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, joins Forward Guidance for a special interview to discuss one of the most important topics of the past 3 years... inflation.
Lockhart outlines how the Fed decided on their 2% inflation target, the impact of higher interest rates in the Fed's current inflation fight & why the Fed has now shifted to their quantitative tightening policy stance after years of quantitative easing. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV
Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timecodes:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:23) Inflation
(05:08) The Impact Of Higher Interest Rates
(08:00) The Fed Cannot Influence Fiscal Policy
(10:58) How The Fed Reached Their 2% Target
(16:55) Could Secular Inflation Forces Change The Fed's 2% Target?
(21:11) The Shift From Quantitative Easing To Quantitative Tightening
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
27min
August 11, 2023 Inside Camp Kotok | David Kotok on “Disastrous and Debilitating” Effect Of Debt Ceiling on Bond Markets
David Kotok, chief investment officer and co-founder of Cumberland Advisors, welcomes Jack Farley to “Camp Kotok” with an interview. Kotok explains the origins of “Camp Kotok” and makes the case that, contrary to popular understanding, Fitch’s recent downgrading of U.S. debt is, in fact, a big deal. Filmed on August 5, 2023.

David Kotok's analysis on the debt ceiling: https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cost-debt-ceiling-crisis

About Camp Kotok: https://www.cumber.com/about/camp-kotok
Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC
Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV
Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo
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Timecodes:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:10) The History Of Camp Kotok
(11:11) Fitch's Downgrade Of U.S. Treasury Debt
(20:56) 2023 Debt Ceiling Drama Imposed Real Cost On Borrowing Rates
(28:58) Alternatives To The Global Dollar System
(31:29) Anecdote From Municipal Bond Market
(35:46) Will Interests Rates Go Even Higher?
(38:32) The Federal Reserve's Assistance To The U.S. Banking Sector In 2023
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42min
August 11, 2023 Rumors Of The Death of Chinese Economy’s Have Been Greatly Exaggerated | Leland Miller
Leland Miller, founder of China Beige Book, sits down with Jack Farley at Camp Kotok to give a brief update on the state of the Chinese economy. Miller argues that, cyclically, Chinese growth is actually better than many economists believe. However, he reiterates his view that from a secular point of view, he expects Chinese growth to continue to encounter major headwinds. Recorded on August 5, 2023.
Follow Leland Miller on Twitter https://twitter.com/ChinaBeigeBook
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig
Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC
Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV
Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo
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Timecodes:
(04:32) Chinese Real Estate Is An Absolute Mess
(06:09) China's Economic Growth Model Has Changed
(09:11) China's Economic Is Cyclically Better, But Securlarly Worse, Than Many Expect
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11min
August 10, 2023 The Fed’s Inflation Fight Isn’t Over | Jim Bianco & Samuel Rines (Camp Kotok)
Jim Bianco, founder and CEO of Bianco Research, and Samuel Rines, managing director at Corbu LLC, join Jack Farley on beautiful Leen’s Lodge for the first week of “Camp Kotok.”
Follow Jim Bianco on Twitter https://twitter.com/biancoresearch
Follow Samuel Rines on Twitter https://twitter.com/SamuelRines
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Dave Nadig on Twitter https://twitter.com/DaveNadig
Follow David Kotok on Twitter https://twitter.com/DavidKotokGIC
Follow Cumberland Advisors on Twitter https://twitter.com/CumberlandADV
Follow Global Interdependence Center on Twitter https://twitter.com/Interdependence
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Big thank you to David Nadig of VettaFi for supplying the drone footage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wT1H7or-sHo
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Timecodes:
(00:00) Introduction
(08:22) The Bond Market
(12:45) I'm In The No-Landing Camp - Jim Bianco
(17:40) Most Of The Effects Of The Fed's Hikes Have Already Been Felt
(18:55) Forward Guidance Is A Problem - Samuel Rines
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23min
August 01, 2023 The Sovereign Debt Spiral | James Lavish
James Lavish, hedge fund veteran, managing director of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, and author of “The Informationist” newsletter, joins Forward Guidance to share his vision for the future of money.
Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm.
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Follow James Lavish on Twitter https://twitter.com/jameslavish
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:52) The "Disease" Of Debt
(16:03) The Fiscal Debt Spiral
(28:25) Hard Assets As A Standard For Global Money
(42:25) Valuing Bitcoin As A Call Option
(49:22) Imagining A Deflationary Monetary System
(58:36) Why Just Bitcoin?
(01:03:51) Lavish's Bitcoin Opportunity Fund
(01:09:47) Lavish: A Lot of Crypto Projects Are, In Fact, Securities
(01:11:44) The Economy & The Federal Reserve
(01:15:04) Tether
(01:17:15) Optimal Macro Environment For Bitcoin
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
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1h 22min
July 27, 2023 The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & Andy Constan
Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and Andy Constan of Damped Spring Advisors join Forward Guidance to discuss and debate all things liquidity.
Today’s interview is brought to you by YCharts. For a free trial and 15% discount on new memberships, visit https://go.ycharts.com/forward-guidanceFollow Michael Howell on Twitter https://twitter.com/crossbordercap
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Follow Andy Constan on Twitter https://twitter.com/dampedspring
Follow 2 Gray Beards on Twitter https://twitter.com/2GrayBeards
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_More info on Damped Spring Advisors: https://dampedspring.com/
More info on Crossborder Capital: http://www.crossbordercapital.com/
Michael Howell’s Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/
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Timecodes:
(00:00) // Defining Global Liquidity
(04:07) // Only Looking At Federal Reserve Liquidity Is A Big, Big Mistake
(11:23) // Why Has Michael Howell's Global Liquidity Index (GLI) Been Rising?
(18:49) // The U.S. Treasury's Issuance Composition Has Been A Huge Factor For Liquidity
(31:36) // Is This "Shadow Quantitative Easing (QE)"?
(44:06) // Inverted Yield Curve & Repo
(53:19) // Michael Howell's Bull Case For Stocks
(59:10) // The "Short All Assets" Trade
(01:07:43) // Will The Fed Return To Outright Quantitative Easing (QE)?
(01:11:41) // Is Liquidity Going To Expand? Yes, It Is - Michael Howell
(01:17:44) // Final Points On Term Premia, Fiscal Arithmatic, And The Dollar
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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1h 23min
July 26, 2023 Julian Brigden: Markets "On A Knife's Edge" After July Fed Meeting
Julian Brigden, co-founder of MI2 Partners, joins Forward Guidance to share his outlook for the challenges facing the Federal Reserve. Brigden argues that nominal economic growth in the U.S. remains too high, and that inflation is at risk of re-accelerating after its steady fall over the past year.
Brigden expects that the rally in the U.S. stock market is fueling economic growth and in particular is preventing the increase in unemployment that normally accompanies the Fed’s interest rate hikes. As such, Brigden argues that markets are perched on a “knife’s edge” and that either stocks must halt their advance and start to decline, or bond must sell off drastically and the Federal Reserve must continue to hike interest rates.
Filmed on July 26, 2023, shortly after Fed Chair Jay Powell’s press conference at the close of the meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Brigden is also co-host of “Insider Talks” on Real Vision Pro.
Today’s interview is sponsored by Blockfills, a crypto trading solutions and financial technology firm.
Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter https://twitter.com/JulianMI2
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timecodes:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:30) Something Has To Crack
(11:01) Hyperfinancialization Means Employment Will Stay High As Long As Stocks Keep Going Up
(22:09) Recession Risk
(26:41) What's More Likely, A Fall in Stocks Or A Fall In Bonds?
(32:34) Commercial Real Estate (CRE) Comparison To Subprime Mortgages In 2007
(36:17) Is The Bond Market Still The "Smart Money"?
(40:30) Is Liquidity Rising Or Falling?
(43:26) Inverted Yield Curves Predict Recessions... Right? (Maybe No Longer!)
(45:40) U.S. Housing Market
(49:32) Julian's Bear Case For The U.S. Dollar
(01:06:47) German Economy Is Very Sluggish
(01:08:34) China
(01:14:41) Will Japanese Interest Rates Be At Zero Forever?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
1h 19min
July 24, 2023 Late Cycle Bond Trades | Mark Cabana on Mild Recession Case and Treasury Market Supply
Mark Cabana, head of US Rates Strategy at BofA Global Research, joins Forward Guidance to share insights on today’s very strange bond market. Cabana, a former officer at the Markets Group at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, explains his bullish case for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which he expects to fall modestly as the Federal Reserve rate-hiking cycle approaches an end. Cabana also discusses the U.S. Treasury’s renewed issuance of Treasury bills as well as the SEC’s new ruling on money markets. Filmed on July 18, 2023.
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Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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https://rb.gy/5weeyw

Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can’t-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos
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Timecodes:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:29) This Is A Very Strange Bond Market
(05:59) Funding Pressures For Banks Have Eased, Looking At Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) Issuance Data
(14:38) Migration Of Deposits Into Money Market Funds (MMFs) Has Slowed
(23:00) Who's Going To Buy The Bonds?
(31:51) Deep Dive on Treasury Bond Yields
(34:29) Why (And When) Will The Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates?
(42:47) Will Quantitative Tightening (QT) Continue For A Long Time?
(46:32) 10-Year Treasury Is Very Clean Expression Of End-Of-Cycle Trade
(49:54) SEC's New Rule For Money Market Funds
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
57min
July 22, 2023 It Can Always Go Higher | "On The Margin" Round Up with Byron Gilliam and Jack Farley
Follow On The Margin On Spotify: https://spoti.fi/46WWQ6T
Follow On The Margin On Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3UsnTiM
Follow Blockworks Macro On YouTube: https://bit.ly/3NKpujX
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In this episode I join the On The Margin podcast with Blockworks' very own newsletter writer Byron Gilliam for a wide raging discussion on the top stories of the week.

With the recent Ripple vs SEC ruling, we discuss what impact this has for not only Ripple, but the crypto industry more broadly as many view this as a big win for the industry. We then dive deep into earnings with a number of companies reporting this week, and many more reporting next week. Will the big tech led bull run continue, or is this new bull market approaching a mania phase? To hear all this and more, you'll have to tune in!
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Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod
Follow Jack: https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Byron: https://twitter.com/bgilliam1982
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_
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Use code GUIDANCE30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin:
https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of Forward Guidance, you can use code GUIDANCE10 for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
...more
54min

FAQs about Forward Guidance:

How many episodes does Forward Guidance have?

The podcast currently has 487 episodes available.