Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive

Every Monday until the election, The Front Bench will take on the biggest talking points of the election campaign. Heather du Plessis-Allan, Newstalk ZB Senior Political Correspondent Barry Soper, former Business NZ CEO Phil O’Reilly and Auckland Councillor Richard Hills have the insight word and analysis. 

This week, the The Spinoff’s Editor-at-Large Toby Manhire steps in for Barry Soper.

Our expert panel discusses the call that this election campaign is being marred by violence and attacks across the political spectrum.

They also chat about Chris Hipkins’ Covid diagnosis and the implications that will have on the final fortnight of campaigning.

The experts dissect that interview with Winston Peters – and if that means National should re-think its stance to work with NZ First.

Heather asks the panel whether the rise in early voting will continue – and what that might mean for the result on October 14th.

Plus, they take a deep dive into the latest policy announcements – including the Greens’ universal student allowance and Labour’s supermarket pledge.

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A 16-year-old boy was arrested Thursday in northern England in connection with what authorities described as the “deliberate” felling of a famous tree that had stood for nearly 200 years next to the Roman landmark Hadrian's Wall.

Thousands of visitors each year walk along Hadrian's Wall, a UNESCO World Heritage Site that guarded the Roman Empire's northwestern frontier. Many have paused to admire and photograph the tree at Sycamore Gap, a beloved icon of the landscape that was made famous when it appeared in Kevin Costner’s 1991 film “Robin Hood: Prince Of Thieves.”

Photographs from the scene on early Thursday showed that the tree was cut down near the base of its trunk, with the rest of it lying on its side.

Northumbria Police said the teen was arrested on suspicion of causing criminal damage. He was in police custody and assisting officers with their inquiries, the force said.

“The tree is a world-renowned landmark and the vandalism has caused understandable shock and anger throughout the local community and beyond,” police said in a statement.

“This is an incredibly sad day," police superintendent Kevin Waring said. “The tree was iconic to the North East and enjoyed by so many who live in or who have visited this region.”

The Northumberland National Park authority asked the public not to visit the felled tree, which was voted English Tree of the Year in 2016.

Alison Hawkins, who was walking on the Hadrian's Wall path, was one of the first people who saw the damage early Thursday.

“It was a proper shock. It’s basically the iconic picture that everyone wants to see," she said. “You can forgive nature doing it but you can’t forgive that."

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trading in shares of heavily indebted Chinese property developer China Evergrande Group was suspended in Hong Kong on Thursday, according to a notice on the Hong Kong stock exchange.

China Evergrande said in a notice on Thursday night that authorities had informed the firm that its chairman, Hui Ka Yan, had been subjected to “mandatory measures in accordance with the law due to suspicion of illegal crimes" and said that trading in the firm's shares was suspended until further notice.

The company didn't elaborate on the crimes that Hui was suspected of.

Evergrande is the world’s most heavily indebted real estate developer and is at the center of a property market crisis that is dragging on China’s economic growth.

The group is undergoing a restructuring plan, including offloading assets, to avoid defaulting on $340 billion in debt.

Shares of Evergrande closed at 32 Hong Kong cents on Wednesday. The company had resumed trading on Aug. 28 after a 17-month hiatus. Trading in two other units, China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group and Evergrande Property Services Group, was also halted Thursday.

Last week, Evergrande said in a filing that it had to delay a proposed debt restructuring meeting with creditors as “sales of the group have not been as expected by the company.”

On Friday, China’s national financial regulator announced it had approved the takeover of the group’s life insurance arm by a new state-owned entity.

Earlier in September, police in Shenzhen, a southern Chinese city, said they had detained some staff at China Evergrande Group’s wealth management unit.

Evergrande ran short of cash after Beijing tightened controls in 2020 on corporate debt that the ruling Communist Party worries is dangerously high. Evergrande said it had more assets than debt but had trouble turning slow-selling real estate into cash to repay creditors.

A series of debt defaults in China’s sprawling property sector since 2021 has left behind half-finished apartment buildings and disgruntled homebuyers. Observers fear the real estate crisis may further slow the world’s second-largest economy and spill over globally.

In August, Evergrande applied for Chapter 15 bankruptcy protection filing in New York, which allows a U.S. court to halt litigation and other collection efforts in the U.S. in cross-border insolvency cases.

- by Zen Soo, AP

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

No surprise at all, this year's Mood of the Boardroom survey has shown that businesses are extremely disappointed in the Labour government.

But it also shows nervousness over whether National will be decisive enough to turn the economy.

In the CEO’s ranking, Christopher Luxon beat Chris Hipkins, but with an average of 3.5 points out of 5, Luxon looks far from a candidate that has the business team excited.

Dentons chair Hayden Wilson joined Heather du Plessis-Allan.

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The All Blacks are back in Rugby World Cup action in a do-or-die clash with Italy.

They go in as overwhelming favourites, but a loss would see the All Blacks join Australia in the departure lounge.

A suggestion that New Zealand netballers should be allowed to play overseas.

An Australian netball commentator has made the call, for the good of keeping up the quality with the opposition.

The Warriors endured mixed fortunes at the NRL end-of-season Dally M Awards.

While Andrew Webster beat Ivan Cleary to Coach of the Year, Dally M favourite Shaun Johnson was pipped at the post by Kalyn Ponga.

Andrew Alderson and Clay Wilson joined Heather du Plessis-Allan to discuss the week’s sports news

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The All Blacks are back in action tomorrow morning at the Rugby World Cup.

The near-full-strength team will go into their clash with Italy in Lyon as overwhelming favourites.

But if they somehow find a way to lose, their Rugby World Cup campaign will be over.

Sky Sport rugby commentator Tony Johnson joined Heather du Plessis-Allan.

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It’s official - El Nino has begun.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) announced the start of the weather cycle in its Season Climate Outlook for October to December today.

It increases the likelihood of “dramatic” temperature swings in these months, the outlook says, bringing periods of unseasonably warm weather followed by sharp, cool southerly winds.

There’s a higher chance rainfall will be lower than normal for many regions around the country, meaning drought conditions and a greater risk of fires than last year.

Wind will be more powerful, with the outlook warning there could be periods of potentially damaging winds.

Niwa said the weather pattern was likely to continue over the summer.

Fire and Emergency NZ’s national wildfire manager Tim Mitchell said fire season “is going to be different. We’re going to see a see-sawing of fire risk”.

“Now is the time to really prepare for the coming condition, clearing vegetation around structures, managing water supplies and forming a plan,” Mitchell said.

Niwa meteorologist Ben Noll said: “El Nino is finally here. We’ve been talking about it for a long time.”

Projections show it could be one of “the stronger El Nino events in the last couple of decades. And that means some pretty big impacts,” he said.

“[There will be a] temperature rollercoster. It could be 30C one day and then 15C the next. That’s typical for spring, but El Nino is going to elevate and enhance that level of variability,” he said.

The eastern sides of both islands were likely to see above-average temperatures and the west and south of the South Island will get above-average rainfall.

As Niwa’s principal scientist Chris Brandolino spoke of the low rainfall rates projected for some areas he was so taken aback by forecasts he exclaimed “holy smokes!”

Throughout October, rainfall rates were likely to be at or below normal for most of the country, with the North Island and top of the South in line for the most dramatic anomaly.

Moving into November, “we have to watch out”, Noll said.

The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research announced the start of the El Niño weather cycle in its Season Climate Outlook for October to December today.

“We had that big flooding event in September - so inland Otago, around Queenstown Lakes, parts of Southland, the West Coast, Fiordland - there could be some very strong and impressive fronts that track through that region in the coming months,” he said.

Brandolino said those fronts would “lose their oomph” as they moved north over the North Island: “That’s why the dryness risk is there.”

However, there would be higher rainfall rates in other places, Noll said.

The west of the South Island could see higher than normal rainfall.

Wind strength will be greater than normal across most of the country because the difference between air pressures near New Zealand, the pressure gradient, will be higher than normal.

“This will come with periods of potentially damaging winds,” Niwa’s outlook read.

Noll said El Niño would “bring some really windy conditions”.

More westerly winds from this pressure pattern will contribute to “prolonged dry spells” about the east and north of both islands.

The risk of marine heatwaves, “like those that have occurred in recent years”, however, is low, Niwa said.

Regional marine heatwaves could develop around the north and east of both islands, though.

Noll and Brandolino pointed to sea surface temperature anomalies - “the engine room behind atmospheric patterns”, Noll said - where there was “a lot going on”.

Measurements taken in a key region where El Nino is monitored in the equatorial Pacific Ocean in September showed temperatures had passed the threshold for a “strong” El Niño.

“We’ve been watching the development of El Nino and what we’ve seen over the last month,” Noll said, “is that that key monitoring region in the central part of the Pacific known as Nino 3.4 has actually jumped over the threshold for a strong El Nino”.

“[The threshold is] 1.5C and we’re actually at 1.6C above average in that area.

“And that puts us on track, this year, to be right up there with some of the strongest El Ninos,” Noll said.

El Niño increases the likelihood of “dramatic” temperature swings in these months, the outlook says, bringing periods of unseasonably warm weather followed by sharp, cool southerly winds.

Brandolino said the high measurement readings were significant given they were from September - “this early in the El Nino arc”, he said.

“Once we reach 2C above average,” Noll said, “we tend to ascribe that as ‘very strong’. That means big impacts.”

Another climate pattern, the Indian Ocean Dipole, which leads to extremely dry conditions in Australia, will also be in play.

“This pattern looks very similar to what happened in 2019 - and although 2019 didn’t have a fully-fledged El Nino, do you remember what happened?”

The Indian Ocean Dipole threw parts of New Zealand’s North Island into a severe meteorological drought.

“This is a reason to be concerned,” Brandolino said, “now we have at least a strong El Nino in conjunction with [the Indian Ocean Dipole].”

Air pressure anomaly patterns showed the next 10 days would bring wind gusts over 100km/h this weekend, threatening power cuts and tree damage.

“This is not your run-of-the-mill, typical wind event we’ve got coming in on Saturday,” Noll said.

“Things change quickly and dramatically,” he said, “with a big high [pressure system] building north of the North Island.”

Both Brandolino and Noll said parts of the country could be above 30C next week.

“That’s early,” Noll said, “Last year we didn’t hit 30C until November. It’s certainly ahead of schedule.”

Bradolino said the early heat was “a nice example” of what New Zealand could see over the next two to three months.

Fire and Emergency’s Mitchell said the wildfire risk was slightly above normal along the east coasts of both islands - where rainfall was likely to be lower too - and slightly below normal where rainfall rates were projected to be higher than usual at the bottom and west of the South.

“This year is going to be different. We really need you to keep up to date with wildfire risk conditions and think about those activities that could cause sparks or ignitions.”

Raphael Franks is an Auckland-based reporter who covers breaking news. He joined the Herald as a Te Rito cadet in 2022.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Questions are being raised about why Weet-Bix is no longer being supplied to The Warehouse.

The Commerce Commission's looking into Sanitarium's decision after it cited a ‘shortage’ for pulling the product from the red shed’s shelves.

Woolworths and Foodstuffs say they haven't had any conversations with Sanitarium about the move.

Grocery Commissioner Pierre van Heerden told Heather du Plessis-Allan it's unusual behaviour, and he would've expected adequate supply.

“I don’t see that overall suddenly by not supplying The Warehouse, there’s going to be lower demand. We’re still going to sell the same Weet-Bix within the country.”

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Nicola Willis says saving taxpayers' money isn't her party's primary motivation for a plan to index benefits to inflation.

She recommitted to the pledge in National's fiscal policy today, which promises less Government spending and less debt.

Willis told Heather du Plessis-Allan the benefit moves are a point of principal for National.

“That what we owe all New Zealanders is a social safety net – that’s what benefits are there for.”

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

National has released its fiscal plan ahead of the election.

But the operating allowance is the biggest difference between it and Labour’s – with Labour having $3.5 billion to National’s $3.2 billion.

National has also allowed a $9.9 billion buffer for anything extraordinary like a natural disaster.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis has also said they will do a mini-budget ahead of Christmas if elected.

But National’s potential coalition partner NZ First could throw a potential spanner in the works, particularly with tax cuts.

Meanwhile, Labour candidate Angela Roberts has taken to social media to say she was slapped by a member of the public.

The event happened at a campaign debate at her local Rotary Club at Inglewood in Taranaki.

Newstalk ZB Political Editor Jason Walls joined Heather du Plessis-Allan.

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.