Inflection Point

This week, we discuss crypto's liquidation event over the weekend and how to trade the upcoming week. We deep dive into the weak performance of altcoins, Bitcoin's role in a multipolar world, shorting in this market environment & more. Enjoy!

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Kraken OTC unlocks premium, personalized services for high-net worth individuals and institutional clients to execute large orders. Trade over chat or access our self-service automated trading feature to receive executable quotes in seconds. Get 24/7 access to private and secure trading services and deep liquidity for competitive execution. Get in touch today: kraken.com/blockworks

Availability of products may vary by jurisdiction. Not investment advice. Crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to US customers (excluding WA, NY and ME) through Payward Interactive, Inc.

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(00:00) Introduction

(00:57) Carnage In Crypto

(04:21) Shorting This Market

(13:57) Ads (Kraken OTC and Ledger)

(15:00) When To Buy This Market?

(19:29) WIF

(23:48) Privacy Coins

(27:26) What's Next For Markets?

(39:05) Ads (Kraken OTC and Ledger)

(40:44) Bitcoin In A Multipolar World

(50:16) The AI Trade

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on 1000x is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Avi, Jonah and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed

In this episode, Austin Campbell joins the show to discuss stablecoin regulation under the Trump administration, the impact of Trump's executive orders on the crypto ecosystem, and the case against a strategic bitcoin reserve. We also delve into the potential for a more cooperative regulatory environment, global adoption of stablecoins, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Austin Campbell: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

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Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

00:35 Stablecoin Regulation Updates Post-Election

03:27 Congressional Bills and Bipartisan Efforts

06:29 Executive Orders and David Sacks’ Role

14:42 SEC vs. CFTC: Regulatory Shifts

19:24 Global Adoption and Future of Stablecoins

26:20 Debate on Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

35:52 Bitcoin's Role and Future Projections

40:58 Closing Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to discuss the economic tensions from fiscal dominance, the major factors driving liquidity, and what to expect under the Trump presidency. We also delve into the dollar wrecking ball, the outlook for Bitcoin, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Lyn Alden: https://x.com/LynAldenContact

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:31) Global Macro Outlook

(02:31) Liquidity Conditions

(08:44) Shifting Treasury Issuance

(12:04) Ads (Ledger, Mantra)

(13:11) Tensions Under Fiscal Dominance

(18:32) Trump Fiscal Outlook

(22:44) Cutting Rates To Zero

(27:38) Energy Outlook

(32:04) Ads (Ledger, Mantra)

(33:36) Interview Continues

(35:45) Trump Vs Reagan Approach

(37:41) Dollar Wrecking Ball

(42:45) Currency Negotiations

(45:39) Bitcoin Big Picture

(50:00) Gold Outlook

(52:18) Bitcoin Outlook

(54:31) Learn More About Lyn’s Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, James Seyffart joins the show to discuss the wild success of crypto ETFs, how allocators and holders are thinking about crypto ETFs, and all the future ETF filings in the pipeline. We also delve into the impact of ETF options on the crypto market, the ETF gap risk, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow James Seyffart: https://x.com/JSeyff

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—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:24) Bitcoin ETF Anniversary

(06:29) Evolving Allocator Perspective

(10:50) Largest ETF Buyers

(14:40) BTC Spot-Futures Arbitrage

(16:46) ETH ETFs

(19:58) Ethereum Narrative Problem

(21:13) New ETF Filings

(26:16) Ads

(27:50) Impact Of Options On Crypto

(30:52) Crypto Narratives To Drive Demand

(33:29) Potential Altcoin ETF Filings

(38:38) ETF Gap Risk

(41:12) Basket ETFs

(46:17) 2025 Outlook

(49:48) DAS 2025

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Joe McCann joins the show to discuss why he’s tactically bearish, the US dollar’s implications for risk assets, and his crypto shopping list. We also delve into bottom signals, the outlook for 2025, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Joe McCann: https://x.com/joemccann

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

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—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:12) Macro & Crypto Overview

(09:19) Implications Of Hawkish Fed

(12:54) Inauguration & The US Dollar

(18:01) Ads

(19:35) Crypto Market Outlook

(23:34) Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

(26:30) Crypto Shopping List

(31:56) Bottom Signals

(35:47) 2025 Outlook

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Travis Kling joins the show to discuss financial nihilism, the logistics of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and the potential impact of the incoming administration. We also delve into the crypto market outlook, product market fit across the industry, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Travis Kling: https://x.com/Travis_Kling

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:32) Macro Outlook

(06:26) Philosophical Vibe Shift

(11:51) Financial Nihilism

(15:52) Unpacking The Next Administration

(19:24) Misaligned Incentives

(22:35) Ads

(23:59) Bitcoin Strategic Reserve

(36:51) BSR & The US Dollar

(45:42) Crypto Market Outlook

(48:40) Crypto Product Market Fit

(53:53) Fundamentals Bearish?

(55:42) Learn More About Travis’ Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this special crossover episode with Forward Guidance, Joseph Wang joins the show to discuss the latest Fed decision, its December economic projections, and what to expect from markets going into 2025. We also delve into why he expects way more than two rate cuts next year, why he’s bearish on US equities in 2025, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Joseph Wang: https://x.com/FedGuy12

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:26) Hawkish FOMC Conference

(06:03) Immigration Impact

(09:32) 2025 Surprises

(12:16) Trump, Trade, & Tariffs

(14:43) What Is The Fed Thinking?

(20:07) Peak Hawkishness

(21:41) Long-Term Rates

(23:07) SEP As A Psychological Tool

(25:16) Ads

(26:41) Fed Surveys & Politics

(28:29) The Neutral Rate

(30:27) How The Fed Gauges Restrictiveness

(32:11) Reverse Repo

(37:52) Treasury Coupon Issuance

(39:38) Equities & The Dollar

(43:15) Gold & Crypto

(45:07) Long Bonds, Commodities, & Inflation

(49:42) Main Takeaways

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Richard Byworth joins the show to discuss MicroStrategy’s convertible bond strategy, the biggest MicroStrategy misconceptions, and why he thinks the premium to NAV should expand over time. We also delve into MicroStrategy's concept of Bitcoin Yield, the risks and opportunities of Saylor’s strategy, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Richard Byworth: https://x.com/RichardByworth

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:50) Richard Byworth And Convertible Bonds

(09:45) MicroStrategy’s Convertible Bond Strategy

(15:28) Accretive Dilution & The Value Of A Convertible Bond

(21:13) Breaking Down The Convertible Bond Trade

(27:07) Ads

(28:42) Risks & Opportunities In MicroStrategy’s Strategy

(36:55) Bitcoin Yield & Bitcoin Per Share

(38:28) Leveraged Upside And Downside

(42:47) MicroStrategy Index Inclusion

(44:06) Biggest MicroStrategy Misconceptions

(49:09) Impact Of Levered MSTR ETFs

(51:52) The Changing Market Paradigm

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Raoul Pal joins the show to discuss the new revolutionary economic regime, how AI is driving the economic singularity, and the younger generation’s changing perception of markets. We also delve into geopolitics, the banana zone, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Raoul Pal: https://x.com/RaoulGMI

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

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Join Real Vision and learn more from Raoul here: http://realvision.com/join

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Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:19) Regime Shift

(05:55) Labor Vs Debt

(10:53) Setup For The New Conflict

(14:19) Rethinking Business Cycles

(16:42) No More Cowbell?

(19:55) Scott Bessent

(23:16) Geopolitics

(29:27) Ads

(30:43) Inflation Trend

(34:15) Finding Treasury Buyers

(36:42) Cynicism Vs Optimism

(38:28) Macro-Crypto Intersection

(45:46) Crypto's Addressable Market

(49:52) Changing Perception Of Markets

(54:53) The Banana Zone

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Michael Millerman joins the show to discuss Peter Thiel’s philosophical framework, the Straussian Moment, and the post-liberalism era. We also delve into Bitcoin’s role in a multipolar world, the great awakening, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follo Michael Millerman: https://x.com/M_Millerman

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

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Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:47) Incorporating Political Philosophy Into Investing

(03:44) Michael's Background

(05:06) Peter Thiel & The Straussian Moment

(11:00) The Friend-Enemy Distinction

(19:39) The Vulgar Vs The Wise

(23:08) The Post-Liberalism Era

(26:27) Ads

(28:18) Interview Continues

(37:32) Multipolarity & Decentralization

(41:58) The Fourth Political Theory

(46:16) Looking Where Others Are Not

(49:48) The Great Awakening

(55:01) Learn More About Michael's Work

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.