Inflection Point

In this episode, Jeff Park joins the show to discuss how the new Bitcoin ETF options will impact the market, what the options trading is already telling us, and whether a gamma squeeze is likely. We also delve into the arbitrage opportunities for retail traders, how to follow the new market landscape, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Jeff Park: https://x.com/dgt10011

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin.

As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code MARGIN10 for 10% off general admission!

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:50) Bitcoin ETF Options Expectations

(06:14) Bitcoin's Volatility Skew

(10:52) Bitcoin's Unique Supply Dynamics

(14:22) Corporates Rewarded For Having Bitcoin

(16:02) Biggest Options Trading Takeaways

(27:30) Ads

(29:20) Interview Continues

(31:26) Implications On Dealers & Gamma

(37:18) Impact Of Synthetic Bitcoin Through Derivatives

(41:56) How Options Will Impact Market Structure

(45:16) Following The New Options Landscape

(48:52) The New Risk Model

(52:35) Retail Opportunities

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Josh Solesbury joins the show to discuss the bitcoin mining landscape, the ongoing transition to AI/HPC, and the future of the industry. We also delve into industry bottlenecks, the risks of transitioning to AI, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Josh Solesbury: https://x.com/joshsolesbury

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:32) Josh's Background

(03:52) Overview Of The Bitcoin Mining Landscape

(10:44) Bitcoin Mining Cyclicality

(12:55) Industry Consolidation

(16:18) Differentiating Miners

(22:39) Miner Transition To AI/HPC

(36:44) Ads

(38:53) Miner Transition To AI/HPC (Continued)

(42:09) Chips & Bottlenecks

(49:18) Why Don't Miners Abandon Bitcoin For AI?

(59:18) CoreWeave & Core Scientific

(01:04:30) Risks To Transition To AI/HPC

(01:07:55) The Future Of The Mining Industry

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Dylan LeClair joins the show to discuss MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy, the insane performance of its convertible notes, and its $42 billion capital plan. We also discuss how to value MicroStrategy, the company’s liquidation risk, how other companies can replicate its strategy, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Dylan LeClair: https://x.com/DylanLeClair_

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join. Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors On The Margin. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER™ device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at Ledger.com.

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Key Features:

Built using Cosmos SDK, IBC compatible, with CosmWasm supported

Secured via a sovereign PoS validator set

Scalable up to 10k TPS

Built-in Modules, SDKs and APIs to create, trade and manage regulatory compliant RWAs

Improved User Experience to onboard non-native users and institutions to Web3

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:19) MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Strategy

(09:41) Who Is Buying MicroStrategy?

(14:24) How To Value MicroStrategy

(16:02) FASB Regulation Change

(19:05) MicroStrategy’s Dilution & NAV Premium

(21:49) MicroStrategy’s Convertible Notes

(24:14) MicroStrategy’s $42 Billion Capital Plan

(27:14) Why Is This Strategy Accretive to Shareholders?

(30:48) Advertisements

(32:45) Impact Of The Capital Plan

(36:11) MicroStrategy Risks

(44:07) Replicating MicroStrategy’s Strategy

(49:09) Crypto Market Outlook

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Matt Hougan joins the show to discuss BTC vs ETH ETF flows, the biggest ETF misconceptions, and the importance of regulatory clarity. We also delve into the value of incorporating BTC in a portfolio, future crypto ETF strategies, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Matt Hougan: https://x.com/Matt_Hougan

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:51) BTC vs ETH ETFs

(03:18) Success of BTC ETFs

(04:28) Marginal Buyers of Crypto ETFs

(06:49) Lackluster ETH ETF Flows

(08:45) Surprise ETH ETF Approval

(09:56) Value Proposition of Ethereum

(12:41) Sacrificing ETH Utility in ETF Wrapper

(13:55) Crypto ETF Options

(18:38) The Future of Crypto ETFs

(21:51) Bitwise Filing Process

(23:27) Biggest ETF Misconceptions

(26:17) Advertisements

(27:32) Compliance Process

(29:43) Election & Regulation

(33:18) Regulatory Clarity

(36:03) Incorporating Bitcoin Into A Portfolio

(40:00) Gold vs BTC

(42:10) Crypto Market Forecasts

(44:29) Learn More About Matt & Bitwise

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Ram Ahluwalia joins the show to discuss his macro view of markets, why he thinks we’re in goldilocks, and his thought process for asset allocation. We also delve into NVIDIA and AI, factor investing, and the role of risk-adjusted returns. Enjoy!

—

Follo Ram: https://x.com/ramahluwalia

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:56) Ram & Lumida Wealth

(02:32) Macro Overview

(05:54) 50 Bps Cut Was a Mistake

(07:19) Economic Goldilocks

(11:27) Fed Mandate

(12:33) Cutting Cycle Path

(14:32) The Neutral Rate & Animal Spirits

(17:05) Election Impact on Markets

(18:55) Advertisements

(20:11) Asset Allocation Strategies

(25:27) NVIDIA & AI

(28:55) Factor Investing

(33:09) Mathematical Model Shortfalls

(35:53) Risk-Adjusted Returns

(39:24) Digital Asset Framework

(45:40) Market Outlook

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Jim Bianco and James Seyffart join Felix at Permissionless to discuss who has been buying the BTC ETFs, whether ETFs are consistent with crypto ideals, and why the BTC ETFs were more successful than the ETH ETFs. We also delve into the difference between buying to hold and arbitrage, BTC ETF options, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Jim Bianco: https://x.com/biancoresearch

Follow James Seyffart: https://x.com/JSeyff

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

—

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:49) Have Bitcoin ETFs Been A Success?

(02:27) Who is Buying Bitcoin ETFs?

(06:58) Are ETFs Consistent with Crypto Ideals?

(11:13) Basis Trade vs Holding

(15:46) Advertisements

(17:21) ETH ETFs vs BTC ETFs

(22:08) Bitcoin ETF Options

(26:59) Crypto Ideals at Risk?

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Charles Edwards joins the show to discuss why the current cycle is the last that will matter, the impact of Bitcoin ETFs, and what the on-chain data is signaling. We also delve into the approval of options on the IBIT ETF, the key top signals, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow Charles Edwards: https://x.com/caprioleio

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

—

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:04) Macro Overview

(03:54) Soft Landing vs Hard Landing

(06:09) Bitcoin Seasonality

(09:22) Current Bitcoin Cycle Dynamics

(12:57) Bitcoin Macro Index

(14:41) Future Bitcoin Cycles Won't Matter

(17:10) On-chain Data

(19:50) Bitcoin ETFs

(23:09) Ads

(24:23) Interview Continues

(27:38) Impact of IBIT Options

(29:05) Financialization vs the Bitcoin Ethos

(31:53) The Bitcoin Endgame

(34:44) Leverage & Funding Rates

(38:35) Top Signals

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, James and Felix discuss the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision, the impact of quantitative easing & tightening, and the consequences of trillion-dollar annual deficits. We also delve into the repo market, why the Fed is disconnected from inflation, the role of hard assets like Bitcoin and gold, and much more. Enjoy!

—

Follow James Lavish: https://x.com/jameslavish

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

—

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

—

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:11) Unpacking The Fed Decision & Dual Mandate

(12:53) Quantitative Easing & Tightening

(18:24) 2019 Repo Spike & Dollar Shortage

(24:39) Trillion-Dollar Annual Deficits

(36:22) Advertisements

(37:36) Why The Fed is Disconnected from Inflation

(44:47) Is Bitcoin the Solution?

(48:46) Gold & Bitcoin As Stores of Value

(53:13) Permissionless Ad

(53:54) Bitcoin Use Case For Global Sovereigns

(58:58) Where to Follow James' Work

—

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the split odds between a 25 and 50 basis point cut at the Fed’s next meeting, market cutting cycle dynamics, and the rotation from growth to value. We also delve into the latest inflation data, rising labor productivity, and the outlook for crypto Enjoy!

–

Follow Ram: https://x.com/ramahluwalia

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

–

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/1XMVpZ672sX1qJV-admNYvznOPFXR737S

–

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

–

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:22) Ram's Background

(03:26) 25 Bps vs 50 Bps

(08:42) Inflation Data

(11:01) The Economy Is Okay

(12:36) Fed Opening the Door to 50 Bps Cut

(16:08) Parsing the Economic Data

(18:12) Labor Productivity

(20:27) Ads

(21:44) Chinese Economy & Red Flags

(28:08) US Equities

(32:02) Growth Vs Value

(34:31) Factor Market

(36:34) Market Rotation

(44:24) Permissionless Ad

(45:02) Narratives Driving Markets

(48:21) Digital Assets

(54:49) Bitcoin & Crypto Price Action

(59:05) Hot Money Rotation

(01:00:37) Cutting Cycle Dynamics

–

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Austin Campbell joins the show to discuss the modern banking system and how crypto is driving innovation. We also delve into stablecoin designs, their role in dollar hegemony, the pros and cons across the spectrum of decentralization, and much more. Enjoy!

–

Follow Austin Campbell: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

NYDFS Stablecoin Guidance: https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/regulatory/us-regulatory-nydfs-stablecoin-guidance.pdf

–

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

–

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:46) Austin's Background

(03:21) Unpacking the Banking System

(06:15) Money Markets & Reverse Repo

(10:35) Crypto's Role in Banking

(14:05) Stablecoin Designs & Reserves

(22:00) What is Crypto Solving?

(27:33) Mantra Ad

(28:14) Spectrum of Decentralization

(32:34) CBDCs

(36:41) Blockchains vs Databases

(40:06) Permissionless Ad

(40:46) Crypto & Dollar Hegemony

(44:52) Backlash to Crypto

(47:46) Crypto Market Outlook

–

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.