Inflection Point

This week we discuss another volatile week in markets with the continuing deleveraging that took place as on the back of a data heavy week. We discuss our takeaways from FOMC, QRA, economic data & the market reaction. Enjoy!

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On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

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Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:28) QRA & FOMC Takeaways

(16:07) Why Are Markets Unwinding?

(23:51) The Yen Carry Trade Unwind

(26:11) Permissionless Ad

(26:50) What's Happening In Crypto?

(31:13) Coinbase Earnings

(35:39) Tether Earnings

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Danny Dayan joins the show to break down what he is seeing in markets post FOMC. With rate cuts expected & markets continuing to melt up, Danny makes the case for why the Fed shouldn't be cutting rates here. Enjoy!

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MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:32) FOMC Takeaway's

(03:24) The Economy Is Strong, Should The Fed Cut Rates?

(11:03) Mantra Ad

(12:10) Why Is This Economic Cycle Different?

(17:56) QRA & The QT Impact

(22:08) What's The Trade?

(28:27) Permissionless Ad

(29:05) Stock Market Rotation & The Yen Carry Trade Unwind

(37:51) What's Next For Markets?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the volatile week in markets with the deleveraging that took place as the Yen carry trade unwound. With markets quickly bouncing back, we discuss is it time to be bullish? We then deep dive into the launch of the ETH ETFs, the path forward for crypto & the inflation outlook. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

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Referenced In The Show: https://a16z.com/the-crypto-price-innovation-cycle/

--

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to discuss the rise of fiscal dominance & it's impact on markets in H2 2024 & beyond. We then deep dive into Bitcoin as a reserve asset, the election impact, what asset classes should perform well over the next 3-6 months & more. Enjoy!

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MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

--

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:49) The Rate Cutting Cycle

(05:09) Is The Economy Slowing?

(08:51) Will We See A Recession?

(11:02) The Small Cap Rotation

(13:34) Mantra Ad

(14:43) The Rise Of Fiscal Dominance

(18:12) The Election Impact

(21:34) Bitcoin As A Strategic Reserve Asset

(33:13) Permissionless Ad

(33:54) Oil & Energy

(42:05) Stocks, Bonds & The Three Pillar Portfolio

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss what is happening in crypto & traditional markets. With rate cut expectations building, are we on the verge of a massive small cap rotation? We then deep dive into the dispersion trade unwind, is crypto about to catch up to the momentum in traditional markets, the U.S election impact & more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Andy Constan joins the show for a discussion on the current state of the U.S economy & inflation continues to roll over & financial conditions remain loose. We deep dive into the outlook for stocks, bonds & markets into H2 2024. Enjoy!

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Follow Andy: https://x.com/dampedspring

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

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MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:27) Why The Economy Has Remained Strong

(04:39) Financial Conditions Are Still Loose

(11:32) Mantra Ad

(12:39) Relief In The Long End Has Been Fueling A Stock Market Rally

(23:01) What To Expect From The QRA?

(29:24) Permissionless Ad

(30:02) Alpha vs Beta

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

In this episode, we dive deep into the latest CPI data showing potential deflationary trends and explore its implications. We analyze how deflation could reshape crypto, gold, and technology stocks. We also cover the Federal Reserve's likely response, the weakening dollar, and the potential for a major market rotation from big tech to small caps and commodities. Thanks for tuning in!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

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Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.

Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

--

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:11) CPI & Inflation Outlook

(13:05) Avalanche Ad

(14:30) Equity Outlook

(25:13) Labor Market Conditions

(34:54) Permissionless Ad

(35:34) German Gov & Mt Gox Supply Overhang

(45:01) Crypto vs Gold Catch Up Trade

(55:06) Evolving Politics Culture

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Timestamps:

In this episode, Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners discusses the current economic landscape, challenging the prevailing optimism about a soft landing. He delves into the complexities of the labor market, the sticky nature of core service inflation, and the psychological shift in corporate pricing strategies. Brigden explores the Federal Reserve's dilemma in managing inflation without triggering a recession, and examines global economic flows and their impact on the US dollar. To close out Julian unpacks where potential may exist in the choppy market. Enjoy!

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Follow Julian Brigden: https://x.com/julianmi2

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

--

Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.

Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

--

MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

--

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:46) Are Rate Cuts Coming?

(08:54) Why Rate Cuts Might Not Come

(14:46) Avalanche Ad

(16:07) Mantra Ad

(17:13) Why Rate Cuts Might Not Come (Continued)

(20:41) 2025 Recession Outlook

(29:02) Bond Market Sentiment

(30:48) Permissionless Ad

(31:28) Reality of Inflation

(48:13) Global Market Opportunity

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week Raoul Pal joins the show to discuss his exponential age thesis. We deep dive into why liquidity will resurge into H2 2024, why diversification is dead, financial repression, the fourth turning & how all these factors impact markets. Enjoy!

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Follow Raoul: https://x.com/RaoulGMI

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Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

--

MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

--

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:17) The Liquidity Cycle

(09:26) Trouble In Japan's FX Market

(13:00) Mantra Ad

(14:06) Financial Repression

(15:43) Diversification Is Dead

(20:12) The Age Of Debt

(27:25) Permissionless Ad

(28:06) The Crypto Thesis

(39:28) The Banana Zone

(46:10) Changing Your Investment Framework

(48:55) The Fourth Turning

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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This week, we discuss the latest in markets after the presidential debate between Biden & Trump. We deep dive into how markets would react to a Biden vs Trump win in November, the indicators suggesting the Fed will need to cut rates soon, crypto's setup into H2 2024 & Friday's PCE print. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Mike: https://x.com/MikeIppolito_

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

--

Avalanche is a smart contracts platform that scales infinitely and regularly finalizes transactions in less than one second. Its novel consensus protocol, Subnet infrastructure, and HyperSDK toolkit enable Web3 developers to easily launch powerful, custom blockchain solutions.

Build anything you want, any way you want, on the eco-friendly blockchain designed for Web3 devs. Start building today at https://www.avax.network/

--

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.