Inflection Point

This week we discuss the soft jobs report and how it compares to the other data, the state of the yield curve and credit markets, and how China is bringing down commodities. We also delve into AI centralization, the outlook for Bitcoin and crypto, and much more. Enjoy!

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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

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On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GnXSyf79KLMoG5p0RRFoNBoAQUet_TOE/view?usp=sharing

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Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

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Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:37) Non-Farm Payrolls

(09:52) Comparing Other Labor Market Data

(12:47) The Fed's Reaction Function

(17:54) The Yield Curve Uninverting

(19:13) Credit Spreads & Equity Rotation

(25:54) Buy What The Government Is Incentivizing

(28:34) Advertisements

(29:48) Tyler's AI Rant

(33:25) What's Going On In China?

(39:30) Flight From China

(41:52) Permissionless Ad

(42:32) Crypto Market Update

(44:54) The Effects Of Rate Cuts

(47:13) Bitcoin Downside & Outlook

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Eric Wallerstein joins the show to discuss why the labor market is cooling (not crashing), the decline in the personal savings rate, and increasing labor productivity. We also break down GDP, the credit markets, and how to rethink asset allocation in today's market. Enjoy!

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Follow Eric Wallerstein: https://x.com/ericwallerstein

Yardeni QuickTakes: https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

–

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

–

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

–

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:14) Eric's Background

(03:07) The Labor Market Is Okay

(08:17) Why The Fed Is So Dovish

(11:08) Consumer Savings

(14:22) Real Wages

(16:53) Labor Productivity

(20:38) Breaking Down GDP

(24:08) Economic Big Picture

(26:46) Mantra Ad

(27:25) Risks To The Consumer

(29:52) The Fed Doesn't Need To Cut

(33:34) Private Credit Markets

(37:08) The Fed Supporting Credit Markets

(39:17) Bond Markets

(41:54) Stock & Bond Correlations

(44:10) Rethinking Asset Allocation

(46:22) Permissionless Ad

(47:02) Global Markets & The Carry Trade Unwind

(49:36) Chinese Economy

(52:15) Europe Doesn't Issue Debt

(55:31) Key Takeaways

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss NVIDIA's latest earnings, the ongoing market rotation from growth to value, and the connection between credit spreads and unemployment. We also delve into the health of the consumer, the future Federal Reserve balance sheet, and Bitcoin geopolitics. Enjoy!

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On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

--

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fUP_rOgvrTDONP2DfYnJyrzgbmWFt0mP/view?usp=drive_link

Kansas Fed Paper: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/10443/Anil_Kashyap_Remarks_JH.pdf

–

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

–

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

02:27 NVIDIA Earnings

08:12 Growth Vs Value

11:36 S&P 500 Earnings Growth

14:02 Yield Curve Steepening

17:40 High Yield Spreads

19:58 Credit Spreads, Unemployment & Recession

23:00 The Health Of The Consumer

29:59 Advertisements

31:14 The Future Fed Balance Sheet

37:05 Consequences Of Controlling Volatility

38:57 Central Bank Independence

41:18 Permissionless Ad

41:57 A Weaker US Dollar

44:54 Bitcoin & Geopolitics

53:19 Nobody Makes Money In Perps

56:51 Are Rate Cuts Bearish?

59:29 Will We Ever See Negative Real Rates Again?

01:02:02 Altcoins & Macro

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital joins the show to discuss the uptrend in global liquidity, a possible Shanghai Accord 2 to weaken the dollar, and the relationship between debt and liquidity. We also discuss the real breakeven inflation rate, the yield curve, and why you need monetary inflation hedges. Enjoy!

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Follow Michael Howell: https://x.com/crossbordercap

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

--

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

--

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:18) Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

(04:20) Uptrend In Global Liquidity

(05:53) Global Risk Exposure

(12:10) A New Shanghai Accord

(18:44) Mantra Ad

(19:24) Mechanics Of Yen Intervention

(22:01) The Treasury Market

(30:20) Breakeven Inflation Rates

(32:56) Debt-To-Liquidity Ratio

(35:52) Permissionless Ad

(36:33) US Public Debt

(40:14) Monetary Inflation Hedges

(43:11) Managing Bill Issuance

(47:03) Bull Vs Bear Steepener

(48:50) The Structure Of Global Liquidity

(50:08) The MOVE Index

(53:49) Treasury Buybacks

(55:06) Real Interest Rates

(56:38) Equity Market & PBOC Liquidity

(59:37) More Upside In Gold & BTC

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole speech, employment outweighing inflation, and Kamala Harris’ newly-proposed economic policies. We also dive into the credit markets, crypto regulation, and altcoins. Enjoy!

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On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

Roundup Chart Deck: https://blckwrks.co/4dUUAj5

--

Follow Zaheer: https://x.com/SplitCapital

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

–

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

–

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:13) Jackson Hole Speech

(08:17) Employment Outweighing Inflation

(09:33) Zaheer's Macro View

(11:18) Housing Comeback

(13:49) Polkadot Ad

(14:26) Global Liquidity

(18:01) Credit Isn't The Problem

(23:02) New Cycle Of Investing

(26:22) Kamala's Economic Policies

(34:45) Permissionless Ad

(35:27) Crypto Regulation

(42:27) Election Impact On Crypto

(44:19) Crypto Market Outlook

(50:42) The Bull Market Hasn't Even Started

(54:55) Altcoins

(59:21) Attributes Of Value

(01:01:37) Don't Fight The Fed

(01:03:11) Polkadot Ad

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to discuss his macro philosophy & framework, why he was bullish after the VIX surge, and his views on the yield curve. We also discuss the equity bull market, whether the Fed will allow a recession, and the key drivers of bitcoin's price. Enjoy!

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Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows

Capital Flows Substack: https://www.capitalflowsresearch.com/

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

--

MANTRA is a purpose-built RWA Layer 1 blockchain capable of adherence and enforcement of real world regulatory requirements. As a permissionless chain, MANTRA empowers developers and institutions to seamlessly participate in the evolving RWA tokenization space by offering advanced tech modules, compliance mechanisms, and cross-chain interoperability.

Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

--

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:59) Capital Flows Research & Strategy

(04:49) Macro Philosophy

(07:48) Macro Framework

(11:39) Bullish After VIX Surge

(15:26) Credit & Duration Risk

(18:46) Mantra Ad

(19:26) Interest Rate Expectations

(25:51) Bull Vs Bear Steepener

(27:27) What's Priced Into The Curve

(30:38) Permissionless Ad

(31:17) What's Driving The Equity Bull Market

(36:31) Upside Tail Risks

(39:31) Will The Fed Allow An Extended Recession?

(43:58) Bitcoin Price Drivers

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the back and forth between recession and soft landing, the bond market’s economic signals, and the Fed's measured response to the market sell-off. We also delve into the massive VIX decline, July’s CPI, and the frustrating crypto market. Enjoy!

--

On the Margin Survey: https://on-the-margin.beehiiv.com/forms/5c7fc920-a57a-496b-9708-1d137bd3014b

--

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Tyler: https://twitter.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

–

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:39) Schrödinger's Soft Landing

(04:19) What Is The Bond Market Saying About The Economy?

(06:54) The Fed Kept Its Cool

(09:05) Massive VIX Decline

(11:40) Will Markets Adjust To The Sell-Off?

(18:06) The Role Of Flows

(21:57) July CPI

(24:58) What's Going On With China?

(29:13) The Fed's Next Move

(31:26) Market Overreaction

(34:17) Bitcoin & ETFs

(40:06) Frustrating Crypto Market

(42:48) How Many New Balances Does Tyler Own?

(44:09) What Can Stop The Fiscal Debt Spiral?

(47:53) Why The BOJ Backpedaled

(53:41) The Globalization Of Central Banks

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Alex Campbell joins the show to discuss volatility, "Magnificent Seven" concentration, and dispersion trades. We also unpack the mechanics of the carry trade, how short volatility and hedging strategies are shaping the markets, and the role of artificial intelligence in finance. Enjoy!

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Follow Alex: https://x.com/abcampbell

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

--

MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

--

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:06) Market Volatility Overview

(04:51) Magnificent Seven Concentration

(06:24) Dispersion Trades

(10:49) Market Risks & Correlations

(14:09) Mantra Ad

(15:15) The Carry Trade

(18:14) Market Volatility Vs Credit & The Economy

(23:44) Impact Of Short Volatility & Hedging On Markets

(31:25) Permissionless Ad

(32:04) Artificial Intelligence And Alex's Startup Rose AI

(34:54) Collecting & Using Market Data

(39:44) The Future Of Finance

(43:46) Future Of The AI Industry

(46:20) Alex's Thoughts On Crypto

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

This week we discuss the unwinding of the carry trade, the impact of correlations during deleveraging events, and which assets stand to benefit the most from increased liquidity and upcoming rate cuts. We also delve into the widening of credit spreads, steel man the recession argument, and examine the state of the labor market. Enjoy!

--

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

--

Polkadot is the foundation for an open and resilient web. Governed by its users, Polkadot empowers the largest DAO of 1.3M DOT holders to shape the network’s future. Home to 500+ apps and chains backed by $6B in shared security, Polkadot is revolutionizing DeFi, GameFi, AI, RWAs, and more. With upgrades like Async Backing, Agile Coretime, Elastic Scaling, and JAM on the horizon, now’s the time to join.

Start your journey today at polkadot.com/get-started

--

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

01:38 Reflecting On The Market Unwind

07:41 No Asset Spared In Deleveraging Events

12:23 Polkadot Ad

13:22 Navigating Extreme Volatility

18:39 Assessing Liquitidy Signals

21:23 What Benefits The Most From Liquidity & Rate Cuts?

23:36 Looking At Credit Spreads

26:14 Steel Man-ing The Recession Argument

42:30 Permissionless Ad

43:10 State Of The Labor Market

45:38 Where Is Economic Growth?

50:37 Is The Recession On Its Way?

55:18 Crypto Market Overview

01:03:36 Biggest Trading Mistakes

01:08:26 How Much Of The Carry Trade Is Unwound

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Claudia Sahm joins the show to discuss her namesake recession indicator the Sahm Rule. We deep dive into unemployment, whether or not we are in a recession, and how the Federal Reserve should be reacting. Enjoy!

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Follow guest: https://x.com/Claudia_Sahm

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow On The Margin: https://twitter.com/OnTheMarginPod

On The Margin Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/onthemargin

--

MANTRA Chain is a Cosmos SDK-based L1 blockchain addressing regulatory compliance gaps in the Cosmos ecosystem. Positioned as the "blockchain for tokenized RWAs and regulated digital assets," MANTRA offers high-performance, scalable blockchain architecture, supporting both permissionless and regulated, compliant applications. Learn more: https://www.mantrachain.io/

--

Join us at Permissionless III Oct 9-11. Use code: MARGIN10 for a 10% discount: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iii

--

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:13) What is the Sahm Rule?

(06:29) Sahm Rule Triggered

(08:37) Purpose of the Sahm Rule

(10:20) Are We in a Recession?

(14:05) Mantra Ad

(15:18) Unemployment Dynamics of the Sahm Rule

(18:16) Unemployment Dynamics of a Recession

(21:22) Sahm Rule 2.0

(22:56) Blame the Fed, Not the Sahm Rule

(24:35) July Unemployment Report

(32:10) Permissionless Ad

(32:49) How the Fed Looks at the Labor Market

(38:14) Should the Fed be Cutting Rates?

(40:38) Are We Heading for a Hard Landing?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.