Inflection Point

In this week's episode, Mark and I kick things off with the current state of crypto markets. We next move into the economy, what the Fed is doing, and increasing economic indicators that we are heading towards a recession. Finally we wrap things up with the state of lending and credit in crypto, including the "runs on the bank" that we're seeing at Celsius and similar companies.

For Mark and my take there, you'll have to listen to the show.

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Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

SoFi’s Liz Young joins us on today’s episode of “On the Margin” for a post-FOMC rundown. When the Fed abandoned its anticipated 50 bp increase in favor of a 75 bp rate hike on the back of the Department of Labor announcing a higher-than-expected CPI of 8.6%, markets had a violent repricing.

Liz, SoFi’s head of investment strategy, walks listeners through the forces driving the Fed’s tightening cycle — she also covers the housing market, “animal spirits,” red flags signaling an earnings recession, and the Fed’s reaction function to the wealth effect.

Does Liz think we should anticipate a recession and continued Fed hawkishness? To find out, you’ll have to tune in.

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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Referenced In The Show: 

Fed Likely to Consider 0.75-Percentage-Point Rate Rise This Week: ​​https://www.wsj.com/articles/bad-inflation-reports-raise-odds-of-surprise-0-75-percentage-point-rate-rise-this-week-11655147927?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1

Coinbase To Cut 18% of Workforce, CEO Wary of Potential Recession: https://blockworks.co/coinbase-cut-workforce-ceo-wary-of-potential-recession/

Tech layoffs top 15K in a brutal May: https://techcrunch.com/2022/05/27/tech-layoffs-top-15k-employees-in-a-brutal-may/

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(01:11)・FOMC Meeting

(02:56)・Increased Volatility & Market Reaction To A 75bp Hike

(07:26)・The Housing Market

(12:01)・Fireblocks Ad

(13:19)・A Deep Recession On The Horizon

(21:35)・Inflation Is THE Fed's Greatest Fear

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mark, Dan Tapiero and I discuss the latest FOMC meeting, the 75 basis point raise and the carnage rippling through the markets.

Inflation is at record highs but are the FED’s rate hikes a precision tool or a blunt instrument that will cause lasting market damage?

We explore the global financial market, crypto’s outlook and the most likely outcome of the bear market. Will the Fed raise rates until the market breaks? Will the money printer turn back on? Tune in to find out!

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter:

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Referenced in the show:

John Collison (Stripe) conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller

https://youtu.be/-7sWLIybWnQ

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Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Jurrien Timmer joins the show. As markets were in turmoil on Monday after a surging 8.6% inflation print on Friday, Jurrien joined the show to discuss all the macro forces driving markets. With bond yields spiking, equity markets selling off, crypto getting crushed, credit showing signs of stress and investors fleeing for the exit bidding the U.S Dollar higher, it's clear the "Fed taking away the punch bowl" caught investors out as liquidity dried up and correlations went to one.

Jurrien goes on to discuss projected earnings, inflation expectations, the breakdown of a 60/40 portfolio during financial repression and the commodity supercycle thesis. Will the Fed be able to thread the needle? Looking back at periods throughout history, Jurrien helps answer that question, but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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Referenced In The Show: 

US Home-Price Appreciation Accelerates for Fourth Month: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-31/us-home-price-appreciation-accelerates-for-fourth-month#xj4y7vzkg

The Four Stages of an Economic Slowdown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LuB2RcrXFHE

Grant Williams Reveals the End Game for Central Bank Money Printing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs4z8eU1qvI

Sohn 2022 | John Collison in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7sWLIybWnQ

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(01:06)・Market Turmoil

(03:24)・Rising Cost Of Capital

(10:37)・Are We Heading For An Earnings Recession?

(16:12)・The Fed's Goal Is Demand Destruction

(21:56)・Inflation Expectations, The Fed Put & Rising Real Estate

(30:35)・Fireblocks Ad

(31:54)・Historical Stocks/Bonds Correlation

(41:11)・Unwinding Of The 60/40 During Financial Repression

(45:51)・The Commodity Supercycle

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mark and I tackle the growing bubble in consumer credit. We take a look at the personal savings rate and compared it to the sudden staggering increase in revolving credit.

We discussed the evolution of banking in recent history, the growing and worrisome trend of "Buy Now Pay Later" and Apple's foray into that field, and covered the overall psychology of consumers during a recession.

We ended the episode by covering BlockFi's down round, and whether or not we can expect more of the same in crypto and tech. For that take, you'll have to tune into the show.

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Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

--

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” former senior Federal Reserve trader Joseph Wang joins the show for a discussion on quantitative tightening. Citing Joseph's most recent piece "Turbo Tightening,” Mike and Joseph walk listeners through the monetary mechanics driving the Fed's balance sheet and the $2 trillion at the reverse repo. They then break down what this means for markets, specifically risk assets.

As the Fed begins its quantitative tightening program, Joseph shares the scenarios which could lead to both a soft and hard landing for the Fed. As economist Lacy Hunt recently pointed out, “Since the Fed's founding in 1913, monetary tightening has resulted in hard landings in all but about 10 % of the cases. Some of the soft landings avoided a U.S. recession but still caused a financial crisis."

Upon sharing his outlook for equities, bonds, inflation and risk assets, Joseph says there’s “a lot more pain to come.” This is a conversation you can't afford to miss as we wade through uncertain markets. To hear Joseph's thoughts, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

Turbo Tightening: https://fedguy.com/turbo-tightening/

Charlie Rose: Sir James Goldsmith Interview - 15.11.94: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwmOkaKh3-s

Fed Governor Christopher Waller says he's prepared to take rates past 'neutral' to fight inflation: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/30/fed-governor-christopher-waller-says-hes-prepared-to-take-rates-past-neutral-to-fight-inflation.html

Monetary policy normalization in the euro area: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/date/2022/html/ecb.blog220523~1f44a9e916.en.html

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(00:50)・Quantitative Tightening

(08:07)・Soft Landing For Quantitative Tightening

(13:05)・Hard Landing For Quantitative Tightening

(21:21)・"A lot More Pain To Come" For Risk Assets

(28:41)・Fireblocks Ad

(29:58)・Raising Rates To Destroy The Wealth Effect

(37:40)・Treasury Market Liquidity

(42:01)・The End Game For The QE Era

(45:32)・De-Globalization

(47:14)・Expect a 30% Correction In Stocks

(50:47)・Will Something Break & Powell Be Forced To Pivot?

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Charts Discussed In Today's Episode: https://bit.ly/3Q4P4zA

In this week's episode, Mike and Mark get into a subject that is near and dear to everyone's heart: layoffs. The episode begins by getting into the raw numbers: initial and continuing jobless claims, the change in recent reports from ADP, and the record number of mentions of "hiring freeze" from CEOs.

Next Mike and Mark cover how monetary policy and liquidity translate to demand and hiring needs at company. They cover things from the investor point of view, as well as the employee point of view and how you should think about taking on equity compensation.

Finally, they cover insider trading laws in crypto and recent negative statements coming from the New York AG. For that discussion, you'll have to tune into the episode.

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

--

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” David Rosenberg joins the show to discuss the mounting risk of recession.

Investors are battling with the highest inflation the US has seen in 40 years. PMIs are contracting in China, M2 growth is turning negative, and consumers have begun to reign in spending. David forecasts a substantial economic slowdown and sees the threat of recession creeping closer — he also predicts a surprise shock that markets have yet to realize.

Is a deflationary sucker punch on the horizon? You'll have to tune in to find out!

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David Rosenberg is the founder and President of the research firm Rosenberg Research. You can sign up for a free, one-month trial on their website: rosenbergresearch.com.

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(00:53)・Inflation

(14:43)・Leading Indicators For Inflation

(23:40)・Fireblocks Ad

(24:57)・Declining Productivity

(35:11)・The Great Narrative Unwind

(45:48)・The Powell Put: Comparisons To Paul Volcker

(50:24)・The Powell Pivot

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

The On The Margin weekly round up returns! After a busy week in Palm Beach for the Blockworks event Permissionless, your favourite weekly round up is back to discuss the biggest stories in markets.

Mike and Mark focus on tackling the narratives that were popular during the bull market to see how they are holding up during 2022's unwind. Can the Fed raise rates considering the amount of outstanding debt the US has, are we really in a supercycle, how will the bear market compare to previous market declines and so much more.

To hear their thoughts, you'll just have to tune into the episode!

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Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

--

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

--

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Ben Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse joins the show to discuss the crypto winter and bear market many investors are experiencing.

As sentiment shifts, Bitcoin dominance begins rising & macro forces drive widely viewed risk assets lower, Ben gives a measured & data driven analysis of the fundamentals driving Bitcoin and crypto more broadly. Should we expect more pain to come or are investors preparing for a bottom in the near future? To find out, you'll have to tune in.

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Follow Ben Cowen: https://twitter.com/intocryptoverse

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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

--

Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(01:08)・Bitcoin Dominance

(09:31)・Sentiment Shifts In Crypto

(13:10)・Bull, Bear & Base Case

(16:30)・Comparisons Between Crypto & The 2000 Tech Bubble

(23:16)・Timing A Bear Market Bottom

(28:22)・Diminishing Returns In Crypto

(33:12)・Fireblocks Ad

(34:30)・Building In A Bear Market

(39:48)・The Macro Forces Driving Crypto

(45:08)・The Ethereum Merge

(52:15)・Surviving A Bear Market

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.