Inflection Point

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Steve Van Metre joins the show to discuss Fed chair Powell's plan to crash the stock market in 2022.

With soaring inflation, the Fed embarks on its plan to tighten financial conditions at an accelerating pace with stock holders being the number one target. Steve also discusses the state of the bond market, signs of a looming recession, when we may see a market bottom, peak inflation and how a rising dollar could effect all of these scenarios the Fed is faced with.

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Follow Steve: https://twitter.com/MetreSteven

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(01:01)・Have We Seen Peak Inflation?

(03:46)・The Bond Market

(12:04)・A Rising Dollar

(14:53)・How Do Sanctions Effect The Dollar?

(18:18)・Delinquencies In China

(19:45)・Fireblocks Ad

(21:02)・Lockdowns In China

(23:38)・Is The U.S Heading For Recession?

(26:17)・Powell Wants To Crash The Stock Market

(36:02)・Signs of A Market Bottom

(40:25)・The Fed Wont Get Their Soft Landing

(42:12)・Final Thoughts

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this week's episode, Mark and I focus primarily on one story: the depegging of UST and evaporation of Luna.

We cover a brief overview of UST, what the algorithmic model was that underpinned it, and what caused it to come undone. We also got into the aftermath of an explosion like this, and the contagion that could spread out into the ecosystem.

We also discussed what new entrants to crypto should expect in a bear market, the current state of Coinbase, and Elon Musk's decision to "pause" his bid for Twitter.

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Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, joins the show to discuss the Fed’s dilemma. With markets selling off in reaction to one of the fastest hiking cycles in recent history, Peter explains how current inflation rates have "put the Fed in handcuffs.”

Peter shares his outlook for both the stock and bond markets, answering the questions: Where is the Fed put in this cycle? Will the Fed be forced to reverse course if problems arise in credit and repo markets? Or is inflation the number one enemy? To find out, you'll have to tune in!

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Follow Peter Boockvar: https://twitter.com/pboockvar

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

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Referenced In The Show:

Bretton Woods III. https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/...

"Russia, China new pipeline, to settle in euros": https://tinyurl.com/bd3hr69d

Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan: https://tinyurl.com/pb6keeh2

Ben S. Bernanke Article: https://tinyurl.com/2p968u9m

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(00:43)・Peter's Macro Outlook

(02:18)・The Bond Market Bubble

(09:40)・Unintended Consequences of Government Intervention

(15:57)・The Credit Cycle

(18:01)・Lack of Credibility In The Fed

(23:31)・Fireblocks Ad

(24:49)・The U.S Dollar

(29:40)・Zoltan Poszar: Bretton Woods III

(32:41)・Is The World Shifting Away From The Dollar?

(34:35)・The Role of Commodities Over The Next Decade

(36:24)・Equity Market Outlook

(40:56)・Will Powell Be Forced To Pivot?

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mark and I are focused on answering one question: what is going on with markets?

We kick things off with a quick summary of the equity and bond markets, both of which are having some of their worst starts to the year ever. In the case of the US 10 year, YTD performance through April is the worst it's been since 1778!

Next we moved onto three unsustainable states of being in the market today: 1) equity valuations 2) debt to GDP and 3) wealth inequality. We discussed each of these topics at length, and outlined their connections to one another.

Finally we ended on the transition away from capital to labor, but for that you'll have to tune into the show.

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Follow Mark Yusko: https://twitter.com/MarkYusko

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/blockworks_

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

--

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

--

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” founder and managing director of DeFi Advisors Michael Nicoletos shares the macro forces driving the dollar higher. As risk mounts, recession warnings loom, and investors take flight for safe haven assets, it's no wonder the dollar finds itself rallying past March 2020 highs.

With an expertise in FX markets, Michael shares how the dollar wrecking ball will impact the global economy, particularly emerging markets, as growth continues to slow and the world scrambles for greenbacks. To hear Michael’s take, you’ll have to tune in!

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Follow Michael Nicoletos: https://twitter.com/mnicoletos

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Referenced In The Show:

Bretton Woods III. https://static.bullionstar.com/blogs/uploads/2022/03/Bretton-Woods-III-Zoltan-Pozsar.pdf

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(00:50)・Michael's Macro Outlook

(06:30)・US Dollar Wrecking Ball

(10:04)・The Russian Ruble

(15:00)・Fireblocks Ad

(16:17)・Bretton Woods III

(26:13)・What's Going On With The Yen?

(28:31)・Trouble In Emerging Markets

(35:28)・Is The Fed Behind The Curve?

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

In this episode, Mark and I started off with an old topic that is just resurfacing: the criminal charges being levied against ex-Tiger Cub Bill Hwang.

Next we moved onto the slowing growth in GDP, precipitous rise of the DXY, and the damage being done to tech stocks compared to crypto.

Finally we ended things on Fidelity's decision to allow 401K participants to include Bitcoin and the Labor Department's response. For that take, you'll need to tune into the episode.

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Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

--

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

--

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today’s episode of “On the Margin,” 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale gives listeners the details on his four horsemen of market risk signals and what they tell us about potential hazards brewing in the market.

Along with host Michael Ippolito, Darius walks us through his point of view on the Fed’s inflation fears, the Bank of Japan’s reinstatement of yield curve control, and warning signs coming out of China. They also speculate on the 40-year bull run on the bond market: Could we soon be witnessing a regime change? To hear Darius’ take, you’ll want to tune in.

Referenced In The Show:

BoJ Announcement on the Conduct of Fixed-Rate Purchase Operations: https://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2022/rel220420d.pdf

China’s Population Flatlines With Fewest Births Since 1950: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-17/china-s-population-flatlines-with-fewest-births-since-1950

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Follow Darius Dale: https://twitter.com/42macroDDale

Follow Mike: https://twitter.com/MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

--

Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

--

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(01:13)・Darius' 2022 Market Outlook

(08:51)・6-12 Month Cyclical Outlook

(12:39)・The Fed's Inflation Fears

(16:11)・The Four Horsemen of Market Risk

(20:32)・Growth To Value

(22:43)・BoJ Announces Yield Curve Control

(28:26)・Fireblocks Ad

(29:45)・Is The Bond Bull Market Over?

(35:50)・The Chinese Credit Cycle

(39:22)・The Rise & Fall of Empires

(43:04)・A Polarising World & Shift To De-Globalization

(45:54)・Venture Capital Flows Into Crypto

In this episode, Mark and I kick things off with Netflix's earnings. After posting their first ever subscriber loss, the stock tumbled nearly 40% costing recent investor Bill Ackman $430 Million in just three months. We covered what this recent sell-off might portent for tech stocks moving forward.

After Netflix we moved on to discuss the Yen and it's rapid slide against the dollar. Mark gave some color as to why the Yen functions as a reserve asset for global investors, and what its depreciation means for markets.

Finally we covered the recent rise in food prices, the Bitcoin lightning network, and crypto valuations. For that, you'll have to tune into the show.

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Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

--

Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

--

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike Ippolito is joined by Blockdaemon CEO & Founder Konstantin Richter to discuss the rise & fall of crypto culture. When sentiment shifts in crypto markets, founders build conviction. Konstantin reminds us of previous cycles & shares why he has never been more optimistic on the future of crypto than right now.

Mike & Konstantin also discuss the founding of Blockdaemon, the pro's & con's in centralization vs decentralization, the outlook for a multichain future & designing new governance systems in an increasingly digital world.

Read The Rise & Fall of Crypto Culture: https://andrecronje.medium.com/the-rise-and-fall-of-crypto-culture-3d0e6fd3e0e9

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Follow Konstantin Richter: @konstantin11

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

--

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

--

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

--

Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(01:46)・The Rise & Fall of Crypto Culture

(09:07)・Are Institutions Failing Us?

(15:21)・Proof-of-Work vs Proof-of-Stake

(20:34)・Centralization vs Decentralization

(29:27)・Blockdaemon Ad

(30:37)・Blockdaemon

(38:19)・A Multichain Future

In this week's episode, we started off with a recap of Bitcoin Miami from Mark. Next we launched into March's record breaking CPI print, and where Mark sees inflation heading from here.

Next we moved into PPI (Producer Price Index) and PMI (Purchasing Manager's Index), what those economic indicators mean, and what they can tell us about the next 18 months of growth. We took a look at food inflation, various asset prices, and how investors should be thinking about the volatile environment we find ourselves in.

Finally we closed on Elon's attempted purchase of Twitter, but for that take you'll have to check out the show.

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Follow Mark Yusko: @MarkYusko

Follow Mike: @MikeIppolito_

Follow Blockworks: @Blockworks_

--

Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

--

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

--

If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

--

Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(01:36)・Takeaways From Bitcoin Miami 2022

(05:08)・8.5% Inflation Print

(06:56)・U.S. PPI Hits Record High

(13:48)・Chinese PMI Rolling Over

(16:52)・Expecting shorter cycles

(23:38)・Negative Asset Class Returns In 2022

(28:55)・Blockdaemon Ad

(30:04)・Financial Repression

(32:07)・Elon Musk Offer's To Buy Twitter