Inflection Point

On today's episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Andreas Steno Larsen and Alfonso Peccatiello for a special announcement: Their new podcast “The Macro Trading Floor” will be launching Sunday, April 17th on the Blockworks network with a VERY special guest.

To stay up to date with the new show, subscribe here: apple.co/38Maf8f

With inflation soaring over 8%, bond markets selling off, and the Fed turning increasingly hawkish, Andreas and Alfonso explain how to maneuver the market during these uncertain times.

The two macro powerhouses put their money where their mouth is by each announcing an actionable trade idea — but to hear that, you'll have to tune in!

Referenced In The Show:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-04-05/will-russia-s-war-in-ukraine-cause-wheat-shortages-raise-food-prices-more?cmpid=socialflow-facebook-business

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-07/u-s-mortgage-rates-rise-for-fifth-week-with-30-year-at-4-72?cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-billionaires

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

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Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・The Macro Trading Floor

(03:07)・Macro Outlook

(06:00)・Stock Market Outlook

(09:05)・The Housing Market

(11:29)・Alpha vs Beta Market

(14:21)・Blockdaemon Ad

(15:31)・Andreas' Trade Idea

(20:26)・Alf's Trade Idea

(27:03)・Final Thoughts

In this episode I am joined by my colleagues and special guest hosts Jack Farley and Byron Gilliam. We went through a whole range of topics today, beginning with the bond market.

We gave everyone an update on the rate hikes that the market is pricing in (spoiler alert: it's a lot), the historic rout happening at the long end of the curve, and how the Fed is likely to respond.

We also discussed how to play a bond sell off, and the "risk vs reward" of investing in risk assets at the current time. We also covered the additional tail risk of Shanghai's recent COVID shutdown, and how that may exacerbate the current inflationary impulse.

Next we went on to discuss Peter Thiel's recent comments at Bitcoin 2022, in which he decried the "gerontocracy" of Warren Buffett, Jamie Dimon and Larry Fink. He also said that Bitcoin could eventually grow larger than the global stock market, which is currently worth roughly $115 trillion.

Next we moved on to the growth of Lightning Network, and the recent announcements that from both Strike and Robinhood.

Finally we moved on to discuss Terra's $100 million purchase of AVAX, but for our takes there you will have to tune into the episode.

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

--

Blockdaemon connects businesses to blockchains through 3 key services; staking & delegation, fully managed nodes, and the revolutionary Ubiquity API suite.

Blockdaemon has mastered nodes; managing 36k+ of them for major exchanges, financial companies & custodians. With 100% Slashing insurance, you can trust Blockdaemon to connect your business to blockchains.

More info at https://onthemargin.link/blockdaemon

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Referenced In The Show:

Jim Bianco Thread On Bonds: https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1512106368647536649

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:36) Permissionless

(01:48) The Bond Market

(06:20) The Stock Market 

(12:10) Zoltan Pozsar Calls For Bretton Woods III

(16:40) Risk/Reward In Risk Assets

(20:20) Lockdowns In Shanghai

(25:40) Peter Thiel Bitcoin Miami 2022 Speech

(32:05) The Lightning Network 

(40:35) Blockdaemon Ad

(41:45) LFG Acquires $100 Million in Avax

(57:18) Final Thoughts

On today's episode of On The Margin, Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Eric Basmajian, founder of EPB Macro Research. After correctly identifying signs of decelerating growth months ahead of most, Eric comes back to the podcast to share how he forecast the economic slowdown.

As the yield curve inverts, GDP numbers begin downward revisions and investors deal with soaring prices across the whole commodity complex. Eric lays out the major warning signs that can help identify cyclical changes in the economy.

Referencing Edward E. Leamer's paper "Housing IS the Business Cycle,” Eric also gives listeners a crash course on the connection between housing and economic growth. To hear more, tune in!

Read Housing IS The Business Cycle: https://www.nber.org/papers/w13428

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(06:46)・The Economic Pyramid

(13:24)・Housing IS the Business Cycle

(29:05)・Fireblocks Ad

(30:24)・Falling Corporate Profits

(35:33)・Risk Assets

(40:55)・Is Inflation Transitory, Or Not?

(47:25)・Rising Populism

(53:34)・How To Solve The Growth Problem

In todays On The Margin weekly roundup, Mark & I begin by discussing the 2yr 10yr yield curve inversion. Is the bond market signalling a recession on the horizon? What will this mean for other asset classes such as stocks, commodities & crypto?

We then transition to discussing the work from home dynamic and whether employees will cause an exodus out of big cities, whilst demanding the same wages. What does this mean for the labor market throughout 2022 & beyond?

Finally, we dive into Zoltan Pozsar's recent 10 page note published by Credit Suisse titled 'Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III'. For that discussion, you'll need to tune into the show.

Come join the hosts of On The Margin at Blockwork's Permissionless! Next month in Palm Beach, Florida - we invite you to a packed few days of Panels, Parties, and Crypto! Get your ticket now at https://blockworks.co/events/permissionless/

Zoltan Poszar Money, Commodities, and Bretton Woods III - https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=51io-WTBd-V

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:14) Permies and Permissionless!

(02:42) The Yield Curve Inverted: What next?

(09:40) The Yield Curve & Stocks

(20:57) Commodities Bull Market

(26:02) Wages: Location vs Quality of Work

(30:11) Fireblocks Ad

(31:29) Remote Workers Migrate

(34:15) Ruble Bounces Back

(44:17) Michael's Weekly History Fact

(46:50) Zoltan Poszar Calls For Bretton Woods III

(54:01) Thoughts on Luna & Terra

In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest Mike McGlone, the Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. With 20+ years in the industry as a Trader, Analyst & Strategist, Mike offers a unique perspective on the forces driving global markets, with particular expertise on global commodity markets.

As war between Russia & Ukraine continues, we invited Mike back to On The Margin to share his insights into how continued conflict effects wheat, oil, natural gas & agriculture markets throughout 2022. Mike also shares how the S&P 500 is facing a market correction similar to 2008, the political reaction to inflation, how the Fed will be forced to hike rates to curb inflation & how crypto will perform in this environment.

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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If you like this episode be sure to subscribe to our newsletter at https://blockworks.co/newsletter

Timestamps:

(00:00)・Introduction

(00:46)・Fed Rate Hikes

(04:20)・Bitcoin Market Outlook

(10:43)・Oil Outlook

(16:52)・Political Pressure Of Rising Gas Prices

(23:07)・Market Similarities To 2008

(27:24)・Fireblocks Ad

(33:07)・Sanctions On Russia

(37:55)・U.S vs China: Great Power Competition

(46:48)・Assets To Own In This Environment

In this episode, Mark and I got deep into the biggest stories of the week. We covered the rising costs of oil, and the $11 billion and $16.5 billion relief packages from California and Germany.

We also got into recent comments from Ray Dalio of Bridgewater and Larry Fink of Blackrock embracing crypto, but why that might not be as sunny as it first may seem.

And finally we closed the session out on where we currently are in crypto's market cycle. For that discussion, you'll need to tune into the show.

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by returning guest & former Hedge Fund Manager Russell Clark of Russell Clark Investment Management. After spending over a decade as an Investment Manager, Russell joins On The Margin to discuss the period of change we find ourselves in. From trends in inflation to the evolution of market structure & reliance on clearing houses, Russell provides a big picture macro framework for thinking about markets, & the world more broadly.

Russell shares his thoughts on the connection between real wages & food prices, what conflict in Ukraine means for food, energy & U.S treasuries as a global reserve asset, the unwinding of the 50 year petrodollar system, how a Russian debt default could increase market volatility, recent price action in commodities & so much more!

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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In this week's round up, Mark and I were joined by special guest Brent Johnson of Santiago Capital. Among many other things, Brent is famous for his "dollar milkshake theory," which is his view of what a sovereign debt crisis will look like in the future.

Brent kicked things off by giving us a rehash of the milkshake theory and his thoughts on what the dollar may do over the course of the next decade. Next we dug deep into the US - China relationship, and got Mark's and Brent's views on who is winning in the power competititon.

Next we examined the historic decision to confiscate Russian central bank assets, and the implications that may have for treasuries and the dollar as foreign exchange reserves.

Finally, we concluded by looking at the collapse of Russia's economy and imminent default on their debts. We discussed the implication that will have for markets, but for that info you have to listen to the episode.

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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In this episode of On The Margin Mike Ippolito is joined by Neil Howe Author of the best-selling book The Fourth Turning. Cycles often resurge throughout history, booms & busts, highs & lows, ascending & descending empires. We often forget history is full of these recurring cycles, thats why we invited Neil Howe to On The Margin, an expert on generational cycles to the show to discuss what the cycles of history tell us about America's next rendezvous with destiny.

Neil provides his assessment of the current saeculum, describing the post global financial crisis era and the polarization this has exacerbated. Neil goes on to share his thoughts on comparisons between the fourth turning and the economic cycle popularly phrased by Ray Dalio as the long term debt cycle, explaining how this led to unprecedented central banking responses around the world. To hear Neil's thoughts on all these issues, you'll have to tune into the episode.

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Listen to this episode on Apple or Spotify.

Apple: https://tinyurl.com/mry8y4k3

Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/3vnnkrkw

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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In this week's episode, Mark and I covered two topics: Biden's execurive order on crypto, and inflation data. We kicked things off with the Biden's executive order. We covered what it actually is, what it isn't, and which agencies the order referred to.

After that, we took a deep dive into February's inflation print. We also took a look at the rising cost of oil and how that impacts economies. Mark gave us a bit of a history lesson in terms by comparing today's oil shock with the one from the 1970s.

We also took a look at what the Fed is likely to do when faced with two opposing forces: financing conflict and facing down a possible recession and searing hot inflation.

For our thoughts on that last issue, you'll have to tune into the episode.

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Fireblocks is an enterprise-grade platform delivering a secure infrastructure for moving, storing, and issuing digital assets. Fireblocks serves over 725 financial institutions, has secured the transfer of over $1.5 trillion in digital assets, and has a unique insurance policy that covers assets in storage & transit. For more information, please visit https://onthemargin.link/fireblocks

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