Nate and Maria discuss the assassination attempt on Donald Trump and the psychology of conspiracy theorists. They talk about what Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance means for the election. And they parse the latest in the Democrats’ intra-party fight over Biden.

Also on the show: Nate’s day at jury duty is a case study in bad bluffs.

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Nate and Maria really, really, really want Joe Biden to drop out of the race. 

Maria gives a psychological consult on the best way to convince Biden to quit. Nate estimates Biden’s chances of defeating Donal Trump if he stays in – and Kamala Harris’s chances of winning the election if she replaces Biden.

Also: An update from the Main Event of the World Series of Poker.

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Maria talks with Women’s Chess Grandmaster Jennifer Shahade about what chess and poker teach you about life; how statistics can help you think about having kids; and the time Maria lost a chess match in four moves. 

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In this bonus episode, Nate and Maria discuss last night’s debate between President Biden and former President Trump. They argue that Biden should drop out of the race, and discuss what might happen if he does.

Further Reading:

“Joe Biden Should Drop Out” from Silver Bulletin

“CNN Presidential Debate: President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump” from CNN

“Important Post Debate Analysis" from X user @drewjanda 

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This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria unveil Nate’s 2024 election model. (The forecast is bad news for Maria.) Also, they explain what insurance industry troubles tell us about the market for risk. And they discuss some key mistakes people make when thinking about risk.

Further Reading:

“Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast” by Nate Silver and Eli McKown-Dawson

“Climate Change Has Hit Home Insurance. Is Health Insurance Next?” from the Wall Street Journal

“The Home Insurance Crunch: See What’s Happening in Your State” from the New York Times

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This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss the reasoning behind Macron’s decision to hold early elections in France, how heat waves could help communicate the reality of climate change, and what we can learn from the impending sriracha shortage. The theme that ties it all together: How to think about long-term risk.

Further Reading:

“The stakes are high in Macron’s gamble” from the Financial Times

“What A Sriracha Shortage Teaches Us About Supply Chains” from Forbes

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This week on Risky Business, Nate and Maria discuss whether Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor should retire, the perils of sports betting among professional athletes, and what the return of Roaring Kitty means for traditional market analysis. 

Further Reading:

“Sonia Sotomayor Should Retire Now” from The Atlantic

“Should Sonia Sotomayor Retire?” from Slate

“MLB bans Padres’ Tucupita Marcano permanently for betting on baseball” from the NYT

“Lifetime bans and careers in tatters – recent sports betting scandals show how fringe players are vulnerable” from CBC

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This week on Risky Business, Nate gives his analysis of what Trump’s guilty verdict may mean for the election, Maria shares the biggest mistakes she’s seen at the World Series of Poker so far, and Nate reveals an interesting ripple in the sports betting ecosystem ahead of the NBA Finals.

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Nate and Maria are in Vegas for the first week of the World Series of Poker. On today’s show, they share their top tips for acing the World Series, explain the politics behind last week’s approval of a new kind of crypto ETF, and unpack new rules for airline delays.

Further Reading:

“SEC Unexpectedly Expedites ETH ETF w/ Eric Balchunas” from Galaxy Brains

“Biden-Harris Administration Announces Final Rule Requiring Automatic Refunds of Airline Tickets and Ancillary Service Fees” from USDOT

To Buy Into Maria’s WSOP Action:

Visit “StakeKings” 

Or “PokerStake” 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

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Nate and Maria start with something light: p(doom) and the possibility that AI will bring about the end of life as we know it. Then, Nate breaks down the news about the presidential debates and makes a shocking recommendation to the Democratic Party. And – most importantly – our hosts preview the upcoming World Series of Poker in Vegas.

Further Reading:

“OpenAI: Exodus” by Zvi Mowshowitz

“Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden” by Ezra Klein

“21 Tips for Acing the World Series of Poker” by Nate Silver

To Buy Into Maria’s WSOP Action:

Visit “StakeKings” 

Or “PokerStake” 

For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters:

“The Leap” from Maria Konnikova

“Silver Bulletin” from Nate Silver

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