Earlier this election cycle, Nate and Maria appeared on Odd Lots to talk about prediction markets and election betting. It was a fun conversation -- and we're releasing it now for anyone hoping to get their final bets in.

Political prediction markets — where traders can make bets on election outcomes — have been around for years. But in this cycle in particular, we've seen an explosion of interest, with people constantly checking the odds on sites like Polymarket and PredictIt to assess the state of the US presidential race. But how accurate are these markets? How do people make money on them? What do they tell us beyond what traditional polling or modeling already indicates? On this episode, Odd Lots hosts Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway speak with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova, the co-hosts of the new podcast Risky Business. Silver is, of course, a famed election modeler, and both are serious poker players with good instincts for gambling and odds. We discuss how these markets work and what the markets and models are saying right now about the current US campaign.

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This week, Nate and Maria talk to Daryl Morey of the Philadelphia 76ers about bringing game theory and probabilistic thinking to the NBA. And, of course, Nate and Maria discuss the election.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Maria snagged her first World Series of Poker Bracelet! She and Nate break down her strategy on the crucial hands that got her the win. Then, we turn our attention to the Nobel Peace Prize and the p(doom) of nuclear warfare. And, of course, we have our weekly “Should Democrats Be Panicking?” segment. 

Further Reading:

The Big Announcement

More on Thomas Schelling 

More on Stanislav Petrov aka the man who saved the world

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Nate and Maria give a degenerate gambler's guide to the election, covering everything from Nate’s $100k gamble on Florida to listener-inspired prop bets. Maria explains why poker bots are shaking up the world of online poker. Plus, Nate and Maria lament the spread of AI “slop” online, and re-evaluate their p(doom) in light of recent developments at OpenAI. 

Further Reading:

Should Kamala Harris gamble on a Blue Florida? from the Silver Bulletin 

The Russian Bot Army That Conquered Online Poker from Bloomberg

A Further Investigation into the Existence of the BotFarm Corporation from Poker Pro 

Poker-Bots: The Call Is Now Coming From Inside The House from Legal Poker Sites

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Caroline Ellison, the second most important person who worked at FTX, was sentenced to prison this week. Nate and Maria talk about how she and Sam Bankman-Fried thought about making +EV bets (with other people’s money). They discuss her role – victim? villain? – and how she played out her real-life prisoner’s dilemma. Then, Nate gives an election update, and he and Maria discuss what people can do to influence the election in the final weeks. (Hint: It’s not donating to a presidential campaign.) Plus, Nate and Maria say farewell to two degenerate gamblers who passed away this week.

Further Reading:

Charity Navigator 

More on Betsy Paluck’s research 

Willy Nelson’s discography 

Dana Carvey’s Biden impression from SNL

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Nate and Maria discuss Anna Sorokin’s (AKA Anna Delvey) spin on Dancing with the Stars. Then, they debate the merits and limits of voting in your self interest, and Nate explains why Nebraska has his attention on the election map. 

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Kalshi, a company that offers prediction markets, sued the US government in an effort to legalize betting on elections. Nate and Maria discuss the pros and cons of election prediction markets. Plus, Nate gives an election update and Maria learns what to do when there’s no plus-EV move.

Further Reading:

Ready Your Bets: Election gambling is going mainstream in the US from Politico

Election Betting Halted After Appeals Court Agrees to Hit the Breaks from WSJ

Betting On Elections Can Tell Us A Lot. Why Is It Mostly Illegal? from the New Yorker

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Nate and Maria discuss the Harris-Trump debate. Then, Nate gives an update on his election model, and Maria shares the outcome of her irrational move at a poker tournament in Barcelona.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Maria sits down with the great Brian Koppelman (Rounders, Billions, The Bear) to learn about how he navigates risk in Hollywood and beyond. They discuss his methods of determining when a risk is worth taking, how to offset risk with hard work, and the time he bet big on Billions.

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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Nate and Maria briefly discuss the latest election news. Then Tim Harford, author and host of Cautionary Tales, joins to discuss two of history’s most compelling con artists: Sam Israel III and John Law. Risk-related lessons are learned.

Further Reading:

A Con Man Who Lives Between Truth and Fiction from the New York Times

The Murderer, The Boy King, and The Invention of Modern Finance from NPR (featuring our EP Jacob Goldstein!)

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The Leap from Maria Konnikova

Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver 

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