美轮美换 The American Roulette

【聊了什么】

灾难性的辩论表现让拜登的年龄问题再次成为核心焦点。主流媒体和自由派精英纷纷呼吁民主党更换候选人。但是，临阵换将真的是更好的选择吗？

在本期播客中，我们回顾了拜登和特朗普在2024年首场辩论中的表现，讨论了辩论结果如何影响选情，分析了更换候选人的利弊，以及如果拜登坚持不退，他和民主党是否还有翻盘的可能。

本期播客录制于6月29日。

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欢迎加入我们最新推出的会员计划

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合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:00:53 拜登和特朗普的辩论表现回顾

00:08:06 政策从来不是辩论的重点

00:13:55 这场辩论对选情的影响

00:16:40 拜登和拜登团队的失误

00:20:01 关键还在于摇摆选民

00:22:24 拜登辩论策略的失误

00:24:56 辩论后的舆论反应

00:30:54 主流舆论要求换人的呼声和民主党高层力挺拜登

00:36:30 更换候选人的利弊

00:43:20 拜登作为候选人的合法性

00:47:30 谁能劝得动拜登

00:49:35 有人可以替换拜登吗？

00:56:27 替换拜登的流程是怎样的？

01:01:10 不负责任的预测

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者

小华：媒体人，美政观察者

【 What We Talked About】

Biden's disastrous debate performance has once again brought his age to the forefront of public concern. Mainstream media outlets and liberal elites are calling for the Democratic Party to replace their candidate. But is switching horses midstream really the better choice?

In this episode, we reviewed Biden and Trump's performances in the first debate of 2024, discussed how the debate results might impact the election landscape, analyzed the pros and cons of replacing the candidate, and explored whether Biden and the Democratic Party still have a chance to turn things around if he refuses to step down.

This episode was recorded on June 29th.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

00:00:53 Review of Biden and Trump's debate performances

00:08:06 Policy was never the focus of the debate

00:13:55 The debate's impact on the election landscape

00:16:40 Mistakes made by Biden and his team

00:20:01 The key still lies with swing voters

00:22:24 Flaws in Biden's debate strategy

00:24:56 Public reaction after the debate

00:30:54 Mainstream calls for candidate replacement and Democratic leadership's support for Biden

00:36:30 Pros and cons of replacing the candidate

00:43:20 Biden's legitimacy as a candidate

00:47:30 Who could persuade Biden to step down?

00:49:35 Is there anyone who could replace Biden?

00:56:27 What's the process for replacing Biden?

01:01:10 Update on our predictions

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

【拓展链接】

恐慌、哀嚎、换马拜登？民主党完蛋？——复盘第一次总统大选辩论后的过激反应

012 | 拜登老矣，尚能饭否 Is Biden Too Old to Run?

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

特朗普选择副总统的过程被他办成了一场《飞黄腾达》，迷雾重重。这期节目录制于5月25日，但截至6月中旬，似乎也没有新的进展可以补充。一方面，特朗普确实将悬念拉满，另一方面，其实明面的牌早就摊得差不多了。除了特朗普的心思我们无法猜测，其他可以讨论的内容，你都可以在本期播客中听到。可以遇见，随着总统辩论和党代会的临近，我们距离谜底揭晓也不远了。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

02:00 什么时候开始挑副总统候选人

05:05 切尼搬家：为什么总统和副总统不能来自同一个州

08:10 选副总统的基本原则：平衡选票

10:05 平衡选票之拜登选贺锦丽（Kamala Harris）

11:42 贺锦丽（Kamala Harris）的亚裔背景为什么被忽视

14:58 平衡选票之特朗普选彭斯（Mike Pence）

18:32 特朗普看重的忠诚到底是指什么

26:38 忠诚对于追求特朗普政府内职务的人更重要

28:44 尼基·黑利（Nikki Haley）

30:16 马可·卢比奥（Marco Rubio）

33:05 对副总统的执政经验的要求

40:05 特朗普需要潜在的副总统候选人干什么

41:30 继续聊黑利（Nikki Haley）

43:06 埃莉斯·史蒂芬尼克（Elise Stefanik）

46:45 JD 万斯（JD Vance）

49:10 盛产副总统的参议院

50:48 卢比奥（Marco Rubio）

52:10 蒂姆·斯科特（Tim Scott）

54:33 汤姆·科顿（Tom Cotton）

01:01:53 凯蒂·布里特（Katie Britt）

01:02:58 本·卡森（Ben Carson）

01:04:21 卡丽·莱克（Kari Lake）

01:06:23 拉瓦斯瓦米（Vivek Ramaswamy）

01:08:42 道格·伯古姆（Doug Burgum）

01:11:14 克里斯蒂·诺姆（Kristi Noem）

01:18:38 莎拉·赫卡比·桑德斯（Sarah Huckabee Sanders）

01:20:12 关于今年的总统辩论

01:26:43 格雷格·阿博特（Greg Abbott）

01:30:44 拜伦·唐纳兹（Byron Donalds）

01:32:20 图尔西·加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard）

01:33:53 神棍一下特朗普会选谁

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者

【 What We Talked About】

This year, Trump's selection of a vice presidential candidate has turned into a real-life version of "The Apprentice," shrouded in mystery. We recorded this episode on May 25th, and even by mid-June, there doesn't seem to be much new information. On one hand, Trump has genuinely kept the suspense high; on the other, it shows that the obvious options have already been laid out. While we can't predict Trump's thoughts, you can catch up on everything else worth discussing in this episode. As the first presidential debate and GOP convention approach, the revelation of his choice is likely not far off.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

02:00 When to start picking the Vice President candidate

05:05 Dick Cheney: Why the President and Vice President cannot be from the same state

08:10 Basic principles of choosing a Vice President: Balancing the ticket

10:05 Balancing the ticket: Biden choosing Kamala Harris

11:42 Why Kamala Harris's Asian background was overlooked

14:58 Balancing the ticket: Trump choosing Pence

18:32 What loyalty means to Trump

26:38 Loyalty is more important for those seeking positions within the Trump administration

28:44 Nikki Haley

30:16 Marco Rubio

33:05 Requirements for the Vice President's governing experience

40:05 What Trump needs from potential Vice Presidential candidates

41:30 Back to Nikki Haley

43:06 Elise Stefanik

46:45 JD Vance

49:10 The Senate as a breeding ground for Vice Presidents

50:48 Marco Rubio

52:10 Tim Scott

54:33 Tom Cotton

01:01:53 Katie Britt

01:02:58 Ben Carson

01:04:21 Kari Lake

01:06:23 Vivek Ramaswamy

01:08:42 Doug Burgum

01:11:14 Kristi Noem

01:18:38 Sarah Huckabee Sanders

01:20:12 About this year's presidential debates

01:26:43 Greg Abbott

01:30:44 Byron Donalds

01:32:20 Tulsi Gabbard

01:33:53 Irresponsible prediction on who Trump will choose

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Talich: U.S. politics, history, and culture enthusiast

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

英国导演Alex Garland的新作《美国内战》(Civil War)以一场虚构的美国内战为背景，引发了广泛关注和争议。作为A24迄今为止最大制作，电影集全明星阵容和炫目视效于一身，更因触及当下美国社会分裂、政治极化的议题而备受瞩目。然而，电影却避开了最敏感的政治问题，转而以四名战地记者为主角展开叙事，聚焦新闻伦理和人性挣扎，也因此被批评为避重就轻。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴 The When】

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期节目的主播和嘉宾：

【 What We Talked About】

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

【Timeline】

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Hosts and Guests of This Episode:

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

经过两天的审议，纽约法院陪审团裁定特朗普在“封口费”一案中34项伪造商业记录罪名全部成立。 由此，特朗普成为美国历史上第一位被刑事定罪的前总统。这一审议结果不仅震惊了美国政坛，也对特朗普未来的政治生涯投下一层不确定的阴影。

结果公布当天，我们紧急录制了本期节目，回顾整个案件的发展过程，并深入分析了不同政治团体的反应、公众舆论以及特朗普被定罪的法律和社会影响。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

01:08 陪审团9小时审议之后迅速判决意味着什么

08:03 “封口费”案回顾

13:30 关键证人盘点

22:30 有罪判决对选情的影响

32:04 右翼对判决的反应

35:28 负面党派情绪

38:54 民主党的应对策略

45:10 特朗普真的会入狱吗？

49:51 特朗普面临的其它三项刑事诉讼

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者

小华：媒体人，美政观察者

【 What We Talked About】

After two days of deliberation, a New York court jury found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the "hush money" case. This made Trump the first former U.S. president in history to be convicted of felony crimes. The verdict not only shocked the American political scene but also cast a shadow of uncertainty over Trump's future political career.

On the day the verdict was announced, we recorded this emergency episode to review the development of the case and to analyze the reactions from different political groups, public opinion, and the legal and social implications of the verdict.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

01:08 What does it mean for the jury to reach a verdict after mere 9 hours?

08:03 Review of the “hush money” trial

13:30 Review of key witnesses and testimonies

22:30 How does the guilty verdict affect the presidential election

32:04 Reactions from the right

35:28 How the verdict deepens partisanship

38:54 Strategic repsonses from Democrats

45:10 Will Trump really go to prison?

49:51 The other three criminal lawsuits Trump is facing

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

本期节目是《端传媒》的播客节目《端闻》中的一期，小华在节目中讨论了近期美国总统拜登政府与《纽约时报》之间的矛盾冲突。

《纽约时报》在政治立场上一向被视为倾向民主党和自由派，但拜登团队最近却对《纽约时报》相当不满。Politico最近的一篇报道将这一矛盾摆到了公众面前。在节目中，我们深入分析了事件的来龙去脉。

播客录制完成后，双方的矛盾非但没有平息，反而因《纽约时报》执行总编周看的一次专访再度引发热议。我们在《美轮美换》会员通讯中对事件的最新进展进行了讨论，欢迎通过注册电子邮箱，免费阅读这期会员通讯的内容。

【支持端传媒】

欢迎你成为端传媒的订阅会员，支持华文世界不可或缺的深度报道和多元声音：https://bit.ly/3QDXSy3 【使用此链接可「尊享八折」，一次解锁端传媒、华尔街日报、当今大马会籍】

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如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

【 What We Talked About】

The New York Times has long been viewed as leaning towards the Democratic Party and liberal ideologies. However, the Biden team has recently expressed strong dissatisfaction with the paper. A recent Politico report brought this discord into the public eye. In this episode, we delve into the origins and development of this saga.

After the recording of the podcast, the conflict between the two parties did not subside. Instead, it reignited due to an interview given by the Joe Kahn, the Executive Editor of The New York Times. In the latest edition of The American Roulette’s newsletter, I discuss the latest developments in saga. You can register with your email address to read this subscriber-only newsletter for free.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

美国国会两院已经先后通过了一揽子对外援助法案，其中包含了强制字节跳动剥离TikTok条款。美国总统拜登于4月24日迅速签署令其生效。TikTok在美国再次面临存亡危机。TikTok的未来命运将如何？事件将会如何发展？对于其他具有中国背景的全球化公司，此事件又将带来怎样的影响？

本期节目最初于4月初录制。随着事件的进展，部分内容已经过时。我们于4月23日根据最新情况进行了补充录制。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

1:21 TikTok事件不那么新的进展

3:20 TikTok危机：2020年与现状对比

8:20 字节跳动和TikTok在华府的策略失误？

13:05 TikTok的“弹窗”策略过火了吗？

19:37 “中国公司” vs. “美国公司”

21:25 Jeff Yass角色和特朗普的态度

24:30 中国背景的全球公司面临的困境

27:26 如何与美国媒体有效沟通

29:45 哪些人在反对TikTok法案

34:25 拜登与民主党对TikTok的矛盾态度

40:28 TikTok和哈马斯以色列冲突、年轻选民以及大选

45:38 用户隐私法案与Maria Cantwell

51:00 TikTok法案通过之后的走向

59:04 特朗普如再次当选对TikTok会有怎样的影响

1:00:19 4月23日之后的最新进展

1:08:23 迈克·约翰逊态度的大转变

1:18:10 拜登签字生效之后会发生什么？

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

杨方曦（Ivy Yang）：小波咨询创始人、FT中文专栏作家

小华：媒体人，美政观察者

【 What We Talked About】

Both chambers of the U.S. Congress recently approved a $95 billion foreign aid package that includes a clause mandating ByteDance to divest TikTok. President Biden acted swiftly, signing the bill into law on April 24th, thrusting TikTok into another existential crisis in the U.S. What lies ahead for TikTok? How will this situation unfold? And what implications might this have for other global companies with ties to China?

This episode was initially recorded in early April. With the latest development, some of the original content has become outdated. We recorded an update on April 23 to reflect the latest developments.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

1:21 Not-so-recent developments in the TikTok situation

3:20 The TikTok crisis: 2020 vs. now

8:20 Did ByteDance and TikTok make strategic errors in DC?

13:05 Has TikTok's “push notification strategy” gone too far?

19:37 "Chinese company" versus "American company"

21:25 Jeff Yass's role and Trump's stance

24:30 The challenges faced by global companies with Chinese backgrounds

27:26 How to effectively communicate with U.S. media

29:45 Who is opposing the TikTok bill

34:25 Biden and the Democratic Party's conflicting views on TikTok

40:28 TikTok, the Hamas-Israel conflict, young voters, and elections

45:38 The privacy bill and Maria Cantwell’s involvement

51:00 The direction things might go after the TikTok bill is passed

59:04 How would a Trump re-election affect TikTok

1:00:19 Latest updates after April 23

1:08:23 Mike Johnson’s flip-flop

1:18:10 What will happen after Biden signs the bill

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

杨方曦 (Ivy Yang): Founder of Wavelet Strategy, FT Chinese columnist

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

【拓展链接】

欢迎在抖音、微信号、小红书等平台关注“方曦说”

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

我们和《这集我看过》的主播徐天聊了马丁·斯科塞斯1976年的电影《出租汽车司机》如何反映和预示了美国社会与政治的多层次变迁。从西部片的传统概念到70年代城市衰败的背景下的男女关系描绘，我们揭开电影中隐藏的社会文化纹理。通过主角Travis的故事，我们探索了片中角色的道德虚无、孤独感以及与Incel群体的联系，以及它们如何呼应与当代的极右派政治。

本期节目由《美轮美换》和《这集我看过》联合制作播出。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

01:54 从西部片里的西部谈起

03:08 70 年前后城市西部片的设定

05:45 西部片里经典男女关系

12:30 《出租汽车司机》剧情简介

13:44 Travis 的道德虚无

14:41 Incel 群体和 Travis

17:55 Travis 的孤独感

19:30 Travis 形象后面是编剧 Schrader 的个人经历

23:45 Variety Photo Player Theater 和 LGBTQ 亚文化群

26:15 时代广场与城市衰败

29:58 1975 年的纽约城市财政危机

31:01 美国最大的贫民窟 The Bronx

32:52 90 年代的时代广场改造工程

35:38 Palantine 和两党解决城市犯罪的方法

43:52 便利店抢劫案和创作中的刻板印像

49:55 皮条客角色设定的问题和作为特例的电影

54:31 射杀黑人劫匪和政治正确

56:43 持枪许可

58:43 为什么要买枪

59:40 Travis 买的枪

01:00:25 枪支文化的消费特点

01:02:25 影片中的男女关系

01:07:57 影片中的暴力

01:08:49 行走的矛盾：Travis 和枪

01:11:15 行走的矛盾：出租汽车司机看 LGBT

01:13:08 电影结尾处理：导演和编剧对于 Travis 角色的两种看法

01:17:04 Travis 和特朗普时代的极右派有什么可比性

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期主播和嘉宾：

Talich：美国政治/文化历史爱好者

徐天：历史研究者、影迷

本期节目的制作人是小华，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是木七果。

【 What We Talked About】

American Roulette, together with Xu Tian, host of 这集我看过, discuss Martin Scorsese's 1976 film "Taxi Driver." In this episode, we unpack the movie’s reflection on and foresight into the multifaceted changes within American society and politics. We start from the traditional motifs of Western films and further dive into the depiction of male-female dynamics amidst the 70’s urban decay, dissecting how the film handles the nuanced socio-cultural layers of that time. We examine protagonist Travis and his journey, his moral nihilism, pervasive sense of isolation, and its affiliations with the Incel movement – and of course, how all these elements still echo within contemporary far-right political discourse.

This episode is co-produced by The American Roulette and 这集我看过.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

01:54 The ‘West’ in the Western genre

03:08 The depiction of the “Urban West” in 70s cinema

05:45 Gender roles in Westerns

12:30 Overview of "Taxi Driver" plot

13:44 Travis Bickle's moral nihilism

14:41 The Incel community and Travis

17:55 Exploring themes of loneliness

19:30 Insight into screenwriter Paul Schrader's personal experiences influencing the film

23:45 The Variety Photo Player Theater and its role in LGBTQ subcultures

26:15 Times Square as a symbol of urban decline

29:58 The 1975 financial crisis in New York City

31:01 The Bronx: Depiction of America's largest slum

32:52 The Times Square redevelopment effort in the 90s

35:38 Palantine's approach to urban crime

43:52 Stereotypes and creativity: the convenience store robbery scene

49:55 Portrayal of the pimp’s character and the film's unique stance

54:31 Addressing racial tensions: the shooting of the black robber

56:43 Gun permits

58:43 Why buy a gun

59:40 The gun Travis bought

01:00:25 Consumer aspects of gun culture

01:02:25 Revisiting male-female relationships within the film

01:07:57 Violence in the film

01:08:49 Travis Bickle: The embodiment of contradictions with his gun

01:11:15 "Taxi Driver" and its nuanced view on LGBT issues

01:13:08 Film ending: Diverging perspectives of the director and screenwriter on Travis's character

01:17:04 Drawing parallels between Travis Bickle and far-right ideologies in contemporary context

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

Xu Tian: historian and movie fan

This episode is produced by Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast.

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

81岁的拜登已成为美国历史上年龄最大的在任总统。倘若他成功连任并完成第二任期，届时他将高龄86岁。而对手特朗普，同样已年届77。无论选举结果如何，都将是美国总统年龄的一个新纪录。近期，拜登的年龄问题再次成为公众舆论的热点。本期节目中，我们试图慎入探讨拜登的年龄议题：“年龄门”是否会是拜登在2024年大选中败北的决定性因素？当公众讨论拜登的年龄时，他们究竟在谈论什么？

【会员计划】

美轮美换会员计划上线了！

加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。

会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。

年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year

月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month

微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk

感谢你对美轮美换的支持！

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

2:52 特别检察官Robert Hur提交的报告让拜登的年龄问题再次成为焦点

11:17 拜登的国情咨文演讲反响

14:12 拜登年龄问题为何比其他同龄政界人士引发更多争议

23:48 2020年拜登自称为“过渡期总统候选人”，他变卦了吗？

29:00 换马是否能为民主党带来更大胜算？

37:55 美国“老人政治”的问题

48:33 民调还靠谱吗？

1:01:11 为什么拜登如此不受欢迎

1:08:20 拜登的竞选战略

1:14:15 如果大选前如果拜登出现意外，可能引发的连锁反应

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者

小华：媒体人，美政观察者

本期节目的制作人是Lokin和小华，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是木七果。

【 What We Talked About】

At 81, Joe Biden is the oldest serving U.S. president. Ever. His potential second term would end with him at 86 years old, should he secure re-election and fulfill a second term. Looking across the aisle, his opponent Donald Trump is not much younger at the age of 77. No matter how the election unfolds, it will set a new precedent for the age of a U.S. president. Recently, Biden's age resurfaced to the forefront of public discourse. In this episode, we delve into the complexities surrounding the discussions of Biden's age: Could the issue become the pivotal factor that determines Biden's fate in the 2024 elections? When the public discusses Biden's age, what exactly are they talking about?

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

2:52 The report by Special Counsel Robert Hur once again highlights concerns about Biden's age

11:17 Reactions to Biden's State of the Union Address

14:12 Why does Biden's age provoke more debate than other similarly-aged politicians?

23:48 Biden described himself as a "bridge candidate“ in 2020 – has he changed his position?

29:00 Would the Democratic Party have a better chance of winning by changing their candidate?

37:55 The issue of gerontocracy in U.S. politics

48:33 Can opinion polls still be trusted?

1:01:11 The reasons behind Biden's unpopularity

1:08:20 Biden's 2024 campaign strategy

1:14:15 The potential repercussions of an unforeseen event involving Biden before the election

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

This episode is produced by Lokin and Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast.

【拓展链接】

Fine, Call It a Comeback

Democrats Have a Better Option Than Biden

Recorded Interview: Robert Hur, President Biden Transcript

Puck

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

四年一度大选年，美国边境的移民危机毫不意外再次成为舆论和公众关注的焦点。更不意外的是，两党在解决边境危机的问题上无法达成妥协，最新移民法案刚推出就宣告死亡。为何移民问题在美国成为了无解的难题，这一问题又会如何左右2024年大选的走势？

【参与调研】

斯坦福商学院的研究者在进行一项关于美国H1B工作签证中国申请人的问卷调查。如果您今年计划参与H1B工作签证抽签，我们诚挚邀请您参与我们的研究。请访问 goto.stanford.edu/h1b 参与我们的调查。

本调查一共有两次问卷，共计约20分钟。完成两次调查将获得10美元的Amazon礼品卡，虽然是杯水车薪，但您的想法将为我们研究者理解来美华人移民提供重要贡献。如果您认识亲朋好友参与今年的H1B工作签证抽签，也欢迎您将这一信息转发给他们，或在您的公司群组中扩散。非常感谢！

【会员计划】

美轮美换会员计划上线了！

加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。

会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。

年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year

月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month

微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk

感谢你对美轮美换的支持！

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

01:25 边境危机的背景

03:57 红州往蓝州运送移民是怎么回事

07:53 非法入境美国的移民面临的处境

14:41 为什么处理无证移民和难民问题如此棘手

16:48 拜登政府面临的移民危机和之前有什么不同

28:08 “非法移民” vs. “无证移民”

30:10 两党和选民对移民的不同态度

32:03 最新移民法案的前因后果

40:45 移民问题在政治中扮演的角色

01:01:51 进步派在反对法案通过的时候都在反对什么

01:04:30 移民问题会如何左右2024年大选的走势

01:06:55 如何才能增加美国人对移民的支持

01:22:09 共和党到底要什么

01:29:42 拜登如何“关闭边境”

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者

本期节目的制作人是Lokin和小华，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是小然。

【 What We Talked About】

Every election cycle, the immigration crisis at the U.S. border inevitably emerges as a major point of focus of public attention and discourse. Equally unsurprising is the inability of the two parties to reach a consensus on addressing the issue, with the latest immigration bill effectively dismissed shortly after its introduction. The persistent deadlock raises the question that we hope to tackle in this episode: why has immigration become an intractable issue in the US? How will this shape the course of the 2024 election?

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: americanroulette.ghost.io

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

01:25 Background of the border crisis

03:57 Red states transporting immigrants to blue states

07:53 The situation for immigrants experience after entering the U.S. illegally

14:41 The complexity of dealing with undocumented immigrants and refugees

16:48 Differences in the immigration crisis under the Biden administration compared to previous administrations

28:08 "Illegal immigrants" vs. "undocumented immigrants"

30:10 Varied attitudes towards immigration from different political parties and voters

32:03 Background and implications of recent immigration laws

40:45 Immigration issue's role in politics

01:01:51 Progressive opposition to the immigration bill

01:04:30 The impact of immigration issues on the 2024 election outlook

01:06:55 Strategies to enhance American support for immigration

01:22:09 GOP's objectives on immigration issue

01:29:42 How could Biden "shut down border"

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher

This episode is produced by Lokin and Xiaohua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Xiaoran. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast.

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

从斯坦佛到哈佛，美国精英大学的校长们先后历劫。2023年10月7日以色列哈马斯冲突升级之后，中东问题在美国精英高校成为争议焦点，各大校长们也被卷入风波。为什么有的校长因此下台，还有一些校长却得以“幸存”？

【会员计划】

美轮美换会员计划上线了！

加入会员计划的付费会员每周可以通过邮箱收到2-4篇newsletter，包含对美国政治、媒体、文化时事的解读，以及深度政治、政策分析，帮助你全方位了解美国。

会员计划在上线首个月有限时8折优惠，请通过以下链接进行订阅。

年付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/year

月付会员：https://theamericanroulette.com/month

微信/支付宝付费（仅支持年付，我们会在支付完成后会在2个工作日内在后台完成设置）：https://buy.stripe.com/3cs9DnaUE4O52Z25kk

感谢你对美轮美换的支持！

众筹平台链接：

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

01:01 共和党初选的最新进展和分析

05:30 利益冲突声明

07:03 斯坦福大学前校长Marc Tessier-Lavigne(MTL)的学术造假问题及其辞职

14:18 学生记者的胜利？

16:43 巴以冲突在美国精英大学成为争议焦点

21:15 听证会上的“明星”议员Elise Stefanik

24:56 国会听证会为何变成了马戏团表演

28:15 听证会上发生了什么？为什么校长们给出如此糟糕的回答

40:03 大学校长是都应该在争议政治话题上站队

45:30 为什么美国右翼对美国精英高校充满敌意

59:10 听证会后第一个下台的宾大校长Liz Magill

1:02:30 哈佛校长的“抄袭”风波

1:17:25 “幸存”的MIT校长和文理科在巴以冲突上的分歧

1:24:36 金融大佬Bill Ackman的闹剧

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”，一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客，选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者，在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者，成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前，talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”，更新了16集。2023年，新一轮美国大选即将开始，我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去，推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

Lokin：美国法学院学生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

曹起曈：美国政治经济学PhD，政治行为研究者

本期节目的制作人是小华和Lokin，封面设计来自欢祺，本期的音频编辑是木七果。美轮美换是一档由百花出品的播客。

【 What We Talked About】

From Stanford to Harvard, leaders of America's elite universities have faced a multitude of challenges in 2023. Following the Israel-Hamas conflict that intensified on October 7, 2023, the Middle East has emerged as a contentious issue within these top institutions, propelling their presidents into the heart of the storm. Amidst the controversy, why have some presidents resigned while others have seemingly managed to "survive"?

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Support us on AFDIAN: https://afdian.net/a/AmericanRoulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

01:01 Latest updates and analysis on the Republican primaries

05:30 Conflict of interest statement

07:03 Academic misconduct and resignation of Marc Tessier-Lavigne, ex-president of Stanford

14:18 A win for student journalists?

16:43 The Israeli-Hamas war: a contentious issue in US elite universities

21:15 Congresswoman Elise Stefanik in the spotlight at the hearing

24:56 Why congressional hearings have turned into a spectacle

28:15 What went wrong at the hearing? Poor responses from university presidents

40:03 Should university leaders take a stand on controversial political topics?

45:30 Why the American right is hostile towards elite universities

59:10 The first resignation post-hearing: Liz Magill, former president of Penn

1:02:30 Plagiarism scandal involving the former president of Harvard

1:17:25 The "surviving" MIT president

1:24:36 - The saga of financial mogul Bill Ackman

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes.

In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.”

Our Hosts and Guests:

Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher

This episode is produced by Xiaohua and Lokin, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor is Muqiguo. The American Roulette is a Baihua Media Podcast.

【拓展链接】

Why Some Academics Are Reluctant to Call Claudine Gay a Plagiarist

Theo Baker

Meet the student who helped boot the president of Stanford

Is Claudine Gay a Plagiarist?

'This is Definitely Plagiarism': Harvard University President Claudine Gay Copied Entire Paragraphs From Others’ Academic Work and Claimed Them as Her Own

How We Squeezed Harvard to Push Claudine Gay Out

Bill Ackman's celebrity academic wife Neri Oxman's dissertation is marred by plagiarism

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助