【聊了什么】

特朗普2.0执政百天过后，共和党正在国会推动一项被称为“大而美法案”（One Big Beautiful Bill）的一千多页的一揽子法案。这项法案试图将移民、税改、福利等多个领域的政策打包通过，让特朗普的议程永久化。这背后有何深层动机？为何选择在此时以这种方式推进？这项法案的具体内容是什么，又将对美国政治、经济及普通民众产生哪些深远影响？

播客文字稿（付费会员专享）：https://theamericanroulette.com/big-beautiful-bill-ugly-transcript/

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【时间轴】

00:01:00 “大而美法案”（One Big Beautiful Bill）的背景与共和党动机

00:06:48 预算协调程序 (Budget Reconciliation) 详解

00:14:29 为何不单独延续税改，而选择“一揽子”方案？

00:21:12 法案核心：减税措施详解

00:49:31 社会保障与福利改革：Medicaid与SNAP

01:08:16 法案中的开支增加项目

01:10:36 众议院投票的政治动态与特朗普的角色

01:15:54 法案在参议院的前景与挑战

01:22:22 法案对中期选举的潜在影响

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾：

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

小华：媒体人

【 What We Talked About】

Following President Trump 2.0's first 100 days in office, Republicans in Congress are pushing a more than 1,000-page megabill dubbed the "One Big Beautiful Bill." This legislation attempts to bundle policies across multiple domains, including tax reform, welfare, and immigration, aiming to make Trump's agenda permanent. What are the underlying motivations behind this move? Why choose this particular moment and method for advancement? What are the specific contents of this bill, and what profound impacts will it have on American politics, the economy, and ordinary people?

Podcast Transcript (Paid Members Exclusive): https://theamericanroulette.com/big-beautiful-bill-ugly-transcript/

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【Timeline】

00:01:00 The "One Big Beautiful Bill": Background & Republican Motivations

00:06:48 Budget Reconciliation Explained

00:14:29 Why a "Package Deal" Instead of Just Extending Tax Cuts?

00:21:12 Core of the Bill: Tax Cut Measures Explained

00:49:31 Social Security and Welfare Reform: Medicaid & SNAP

01:08:16 Spending Increases in the Bill

01:10:36 Political Dynamics of the House Vote and Trump's Role

01:15:54 The Bill's Prospects and Challenges in the Senate

01:22:22 Potential Impact of the Bill on Midterm Elections

【The Links】

https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-05/61422-Reconciliation-Distributional-Analysis.pdf

https://theamericanroulette.com/tax-on-tips/

https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tax-cuts-2025-budget-reconciliation/

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/opinion/josh-hawley-dont-cut-medicaid.html

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