【聊了什么】

距离美国中期选举越来越近，生活成本、伊朗战争和选民对特朗普的不满，让民主党的全国民调看起来一片大好。但民调里的“蓝色海啸”，究竟能冲出多少席位？重新划分的选区、各州不同的候选人，以及那些看似打成平手的内部民调，都在提醒我们：全国领先，不等于处处能赢。

本期我们从众议院与参议院的选情，聊到共和党的中期选举大会、费特曼的亮相，以及邮寄选票和重新划区之争。节目最后转向 AI：原本主要发生在科技圈内的安全争论，正与各地对数据中心的反对交汇，进入中期选举的政治议程。越来越多人要求 AI“慢下来”，但要把这些不同的担忧变成有效监管，仍然困难重重。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目，欢迎加入会员计划，支持我们继续做下去：

https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:36 中期选举临近：生活成本、战争与选民情绪

03:42 民主党民调领先：浪潮还是海啸？

14:44 全国领先，为什么未必能换来更多席位

20:26 偏蓝州的选情为什么仍有悬念

27:45 内部民调为何总显示“五五开”

29:30 农业州的成本压力与德州候选人争议

34:25 共和党的中期选举大会与特朗普的算盘

39:12 费特曼为何出现在共和党大会

43:54 共和党筹款优势为何难以变成选战优势

49:15 邮寄选票争议

52:31 密苏里选区重划

56:14 AI 安全争论：谁希望技术慢下来

1:03:01 数据中心反对派和安全派合流

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

小华：媒体人

【What We Talked About】

As the U.S. midterms draw closer, the cost of living, the war with Iran, and voter dissatisfaction with Trump have put Democrats in a strong position in national polls. But how many seats can this “blue tsunami” in the polls actually deliver? Redrawn districts, differences among candidates, and internal polls showing surprisingly close races all point to the same caution: a national lead does not mean Democrats will win everywhere.

In this episode, we discuss the House and Senate races, the Republicans’ midterm convention, and John Fetterman’s appearance at the event. We also look at disputes over mail-in ballots and redistricting. Finally, we turn to AI: once a niche issue, concerns about safety and data center construction are becoming part of midterm politics. The debate has gone mainstream, but regulation that could meaningfully slow AI still seems a long way off.

【Support Us】

Support the show by joining our membership program:

https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Business inquiries and listener mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

00:36 The midterms approach: living costs, war, and voter sentiment

03:42 Democrats lead in the polls: a blue wave or a blue tsunami?

14:44 Why a national lead may not translate into more seats

20:26 Why races in blue-leaning states remain uncertain

27:45 Why internal polls so often show a dead heat

29:30 Rising costs in agricultural states and a candidate controversy in Texas

34:25 The Republican midterm convention and Trump’s strategy

39:12 Why Fetterman appeared at the Republican convention

43:54 Why Republicans’ fundraising edge may not become an electoral edge

49:15 The dispute over mail-in ballots

52:31 Redistricting in Missouri

56:14 The AI safety debate: who wants to slow things down?

1:03:01 Where data center opponents and AI safety advocates converge

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

【相关链接 The Links】

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

长岛市的新楼一栋接一栋，纽约的房租为什么还是让人住不起？冻结房租，究竟保护了谁，又把谁留在了门外？本期，我们与城市规划师、播客《城市传说 Urban Myths》主播

我们从纽约的租金稳定制度聊到房东的财产权、租客之间的不平等，以及近年引发美国自由派争论的“丰饶主义”（Abundance）。当住房、交通和公共设施都不够用，政府应该怎样增加供给？为什么一些支持“住房是人权”的人，却反对在自家附近多建几套房子？那些原本为了保护居民、环境和弱势群体而设立的规则，又如何成为建设的障碍？

我们也讨论纽约实际把事情做成的办法：City of Yes 如何为建房松绑，经济发展公司 EDC 如何连接政府与私人资本，马姆达尼如何在左翼理想与治理现实之间周旋。从长岛市的重新规划，到 Gowanus 的改造与居民监督，看纽约市怎样才能把东西建起来，并让居民分享建设带来的好处。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:00 长岛市：新楼越建越多，房租为什么还在涨

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，纽约诉讼律师

小华：媒体人

罗雨翔：城市规划师，播客《城市传说 Urban Myths》主播

【What We Talked About】

New buildings keep going up in Long Island City—so why is New York’s rent still out of reach? Who does a rent freeze protect, and who gets left out? In this episode, recorded in person in Long Island City, we sit down with urban planner Yuxiang Luo, host of Urban Myths. Starting with our own experiences renting in the city, we explore New York’s housing crisis and what it would take to turn Mamdani’s housing promises into reality.

Our conversation spans New York’s rent stabilization system, landlords’ property rights, inequalities among tenants, and “Abundance,” an agenda that has sparked debate among American liberals in recent years. When housing, transit, and public infrastructure fall short, how should the government expand supply? Why do some people who believe “housing is a human right” oppose building more homes in their own neighborhoods? And how have rules originally designed to protect residents, the environment, and vulnerable communities become barriers to construction?

We also look at how New York gets things done: how City of Yes opens the door to more housing, how the New York City Economic Development Corporation (EDC) connects government with private capital, and how Mamdani navigates the tension between left-wing ideals and the realities of governing. From Long Island City’s rezoning to redevelopment and resident oversight in Gowanus, we ask how New York can get things built—and ensure residents share in the benefits.

【Support Us】

【Timeline】

00:00 Long Island City: Why Are Rents Still Rising as New Buildings Go Up?

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

Lokin: Lawyer

罗雨翔 (Luo Yuxiang): Urban planner; host of 城市传说 Urban Myths

【The Links】

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

2026年中期选举初选进入尾声，两党的结果已经打破了不少看似稳固的判断。特朗普仍然牢牢影响共和党，但他亲自背书的候选人在多场关键初选中接连落败；民主党则有七名现任众议员倒在党内挑战者手下。特朗普的背书在哪些地方仍然有效？现任优势又为什么正在民主党内部失灵？

本期我们从密歇根、威斯康星和明尼苏达的选举结果谈起，讨论民主党建制派、进步派与民主社会主义者围绕“可当选性”、巴以议题、族裔代表和党内资源展开的路线之争。我们也分析了初选民调为什么会大幅失准：投票人群的构成、最后时刻的势头、竞选资金与组织能力，怎样让看似稳固的领先在投票日突然消失。

我们也讨论了可能决定参议院控制权的大选地图：德州、密歇根、缅因、俄亥俄、阿拉斯加、佐治亚、北卡和爱荷华，哪些是真正可能翻盘的战场，哪些只有在浪潮选举中才会出现意外？2026年的中期选举不只是红蓝之间的较量，也是两党内部关于谁能代表自己、谁能真正赢下大选的争夺。

本期节目录制于8月16日。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

00:35 开场：进入2026年中期选举初选盘点

05:11 特朗普背书破功，共和党掌控力出现松动

12:23 七名民主党现任众议员为何输掉党内初选

19:10 密歇根与威斯康星：进步派、建制派与“可当选性”

40:24 明尼苏达与民主社会主义者的扩张

43:16 初选民调为什么接连失准

48:24 德州与密歇根：参议院争夺的两种难题

55:31 缅因州：Susan Collins 还能守住席位吗

58:37 俄亥俄州：Sherrod Brown 的翻盘机会

1:06:00 阿拉斯加：同名候选人与排序复选的变量

1:12:16 佐治亚与北卡：民主党为什么领先稳固

1:16:53 爱荷华：地方议题能否撬动红州

1:22:13 蒙大拿、内布拉斯加与堪萨斯的冷门可能

1:25:54 Fetterman 与参议院控制权的关键一票

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

小华：媒体人

【 What We Talked About】

The 2026 midterms have not yet entered their final stretch, but the party primaries have already upended several assumptions that once seemed settled. Donald Trump still holds considerable sway over the Republican Party, yet several candidates he personally endorsed have lost key primaries. Meanwhile, seven incumbent House Democrats were defeated by challengers from within their own party. Where does Trump’s endorsement still carry weight? And why is the advantage of incumbency breaking down among Democrats?

We examine the results in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, focusing on the struggle among the Democratic establishment, progressives, and democratic socialists over electability, Israel and Palestine, racial representation, and party resources. We also explore why primary polling missed the mark so badly: how turnout composition, late momentum, campaign spending, and organizing capacity can make an apparently secure lead disappear on Election Day.

We also survey the Senate map that could determine control of the chamber, including Texas, Michigan, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Iowa. Which races present genuine opportunities to flip a seat, and which would become competitive only in a wave election? The 2026 midterms are not simply a contest between red and blue. They are also an internal struggle over who represents each party and who can actually win a general election.

This episode was recorded on August 16.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

05:11 Trump-backed candidates fall short as his grip on the GOP shows signs of weakening

12:23 Why seven incumbent House Democrats lost their primaries

19:10 Michigan and Wisconsin: Progressives, the establishment, and “electability”

40:24 Minnesota and the rise of democratic socialists

43:16 Why primary polling keeps missing the mark

48:24 Texas and Michigan: Two different challenges in the battle for the Senate

55:31 Maine: Can Susan Collins hold on to her seat?

58:37 Ohio: Sherrod Brown’s path to a comeback

1:06:00 Alaska: Same-name candidates and the ranked-choice voting wildcard

1:12:16 Georgia and North Carolina: Why the Democrats’ leads look solid

1:16:53 Iowa: Can local issues put a red state in play?

1:22:13 Could Montana, Nebraska, or Kansas deliver an upset?

1:25:54 Fetterman and the decisive vote for control of the Senate

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

同样讨论总统罢免权，FTC 不是例外，美联储却是；同样声称尊重文本和原意，保守派大法官在出生公民权、投票权和跨性别权益案中，却一次次更换自己的法理工具。

本期我们与 Nancy、品达一起盘点美国最高法院 2025-2026 开庭期：特朗普的“单一行政权”走到了哪一步？谁仍然被视为美国人？《投票权法》还剩下多少效力？跨性别学生为什么被排除在女子校队之外？当法院的判决越来越只能用政治解释，偶尔对特朗普说“不”，究竟是制度制衡，还是“小骂大帮忙”？

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

01:39 FTC 与美联储：特朗普能解雇谁

08:02 “单一行政权”如何成为保守派共识

28:29 出生公民权与谁算“美国人”

43:31 TPS 终止：移民身份和司法审查

53:35 投票权法、黑人选区与政治划区

1:02:02 最高法院还有稳定法理吗

1:13:01 跨性别学生参加女子体育案

1:20:53 校园体育为什么不能套用精英体育逻辑

1:33:32 Alito 退休乌龙与大法官的个人政治

1:41:21 Barrett 为什么总成为右翼攻击目标

1:44:36 法院改革与对特朗普“小骂大帮忙”

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

Nancy：普林斯顿大学政治学博士生，耶鲁法学院法律博士

品达：美国政治观察人士，《孤岛繁星》主播

【 What We Talked About】

When considering the same question of presidential removal power, the Court decided that the FTC was not an exception, but the Federal Reserve was. And while the conservative justices continue to profess their commitment to textualism and originalism, they repeatedly switched doctrinal tools in cases involving birthright citizenship, voting rights, and transgender rights.

In this episode, Nancy and Pinda join us to review the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2025-2026 term. How far has Trump’s vision of the “unitary executive” advanced? Who still counts as American? How much remains of the Voting Rights Act? Why can transgender students be excluded from girls’ school sports? As the Court’s decisions become increasingly difficult to explain through legal doctrine alone, do its occasional rulings against Trump represent genuine institutional checks, or merely “small rebukes, big assists”?

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

01:39 The FTC and the Federal Reserve: Whom can Trump fire?

08:02 How the “unitary executive” became a conservative consensus

28:29 Birthright citizenship and who counts as “American”

43:31 Ending TPS: Immigration status and judicial review

53:35 The Voting Rights Act, majority-Black districts, and partisan redistricting

1:02:02 Does the Supreme Court still have a coherent legal doctrine?

1:13:01 The case over transgender students participating in girls’ sports

1:20:53 Why school sports cannot be judged by the logic of elite athletics

1:33:32 The false report of Alito’s retirement and the personal politics of the justices

1:41:21 Why Barrett remains a favorite target of the right

1:44:36 Court reform and the Supreme Court’s “small rebukes, big assists” approach to Trump

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Nancy：Princeton Politics PhD student, Yale Law School graduate

Pinda：American political enthusiast

【The Links】

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

有人真的死了，有人消失近一个月后出来证明自己还活着，还有人虽然活着，政治生命却已经结束。本期从林赛·格雷厄姆突然去世、麦康奈尔的健康疑云和 Graham Platner 因性侵指控退选聊起，盘点华盛顿这个夏天的死人、活人和“政治死人”。

我们也讨论格雷厄姆留下的权力真空、美国国会的老人政治、民主党候选人接连出现的丑闻，以及 ICE 执法如何影响缅因州和德州选情。后半段转向重新升级的伊朗战争、霍尔木兹海峡控制权和特朗普提出的20%通行费，最后聊到他为何在中期选举前重新炒作2020年选举舞弊。

本期节目录制于7月18日。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

01:20 林赛·格雷厄姆突然去世

08:21 从反特朗普到核心盟友：格雷厄姆的政治遗产

13:39 妹妹接班：南卡参议院席位如何继承

20:54 麦康奈尔“还活着”与国会老人政治

29:03 Graham Platner：从民主党新星到政治死亡

33:23 候选人审查与进步派的政治素人困境

39:52 ICE 枪击事件如何进入缅因州选战

44:56 Ruben Gallego 的竞选资金与桃色丑闻

52:06 伊朗战火重燃，停火备忘录为何失效

58:49 美国会不会用武力打开霍尔木兹海峡

01:01:57 特朗普的“海峡守护者”与20%通行费

01:05:48 特朗普重提2020年选举舞弊

01:11:45 战争拨款、国会票数与中期选举

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

小华：媒体人

【 What We Talked About】

Someone actually died, someone resurfaced after nearly a month to prove he's still alive, and someone else is alive but politically finished. This episode starts with Lindsey Graham's sudden death, the health mystery surrounding Mitch McConnell, and Graham Platner's withdrawal from his race over sexual assault allegations — a rundown of Washington's summer of the dead, the living, and the politically dead.

We also discuss the power vacuum Graham leaves behind, gerontocracy in Congress, the string of scandals hitting Democratic candidates, and how ICE enforcement is shaping the races in Maine and Texas. The second half turns to the re-escalating war with Iran, control of the Strait of Hormuz and Trump's proposed 20% transit fee, and finally why he's reviving 2020 election fraud claims ahead of the midterms.

This episode was recorded on July 18.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

01:20 Lindsey Graham's sudden death

08:21 From Trump critic to core ally: Graham's political legacy

13:39 A sister succeeds: how South Carolina's Senate seat gets passed down

20:54 McConnell is "still alive" — and the gerontocracy in Congress

29:03 Graham Platner: from rising Democratic star to political death

33:23 Candidate vetting and progressives' political-outsider problem

39:52 How an ICE shooting entered Maine's Senate race

44:56 Ruben Gallego's campaign finances and sex scandal

52:06 War with Iran reignites: why the ceasefire memorandum collapsed

58:49 Would the U.S. use force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

01:01:57 Trump's "Strait Guardian" plan and the 20% transit fee

01:05:48 Trump revives 2020 election fraud claims

01:11:45 War appropriations, the votes in Congress, and the midterms

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

美国250岁了。特朗普政府给它过生日的方式包括：把林肯纪念堂的倒影池刷成国旗蓝（然后看着藻类卷土重来、油漆片片剥落），在肯尼迪中心门口挂上"特朗普"三个字（如今盖在施工围布后面），以及在白宫南草坪架起UFC八角笼（比赛办在总统80岁生日当天）……

本期录制于7月2日、独立日前夕。我们追问三个问题：谁在给美国过生日？谁拥有美国历史的解释权？谁是美国人？

一辆开了250年的老爷车，正站上历史的分水岭。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

01:42 谁在给美国过生日，怎么过？

16:29 谁出钱、谁办事：企业赞助、隐形成本与三套大庆班子

31:27 谁拥有美国历史的解释权？

1:00:41 老爷车开了250年：世界最古老政权的奇迹与政治周期

1:09:45 谁是美国人？出生公民权案惊险过关

1:32:38 美国的"苏伊士时刻"？250岁与摇晃的国际秩序

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

Talich：美国政治和文化历史爱好者

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

Lokin：美国法学院毕业生，纽约诉讼律师

【What We Talked About】

America turns 250. The Trump administration's idea of a birthday party: painting the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool flag-blue (then watching the algae return and the paint peel away), putting "Trump" on the Kennedy Center's façade (now hidden behind construction wrap), and raising a UFC octagon on the White House South Lawn (with the fight held on the president's 80th birthday)...

Recorded on July 2, on the eve of Independence Day, this episode asks three questions: Who is throwing America's birthday party? Who gets to interpret American history? And who counts as an American?

After 250 years on the road, the old car has arrived at a historical watershed.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

01:42 Who's Throwing America's Birthday Party — and How?

16:29 Who Pays, Who Runs the Show: Corporate Sponsors, Hidden Costs, and Three Competing Committees

31:27 Who Gets to Interpret American History?

1:00:41 250 Years on the Road: The Miracle and Political Cycles of the World's Oldest Surviving Government

1:09:45 Who Counts as an American? Birthright Citizenship's Narrow Escape

1:32:38 America's "Suez Moment"? Turning 250 in a Teetering World Order

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our hosts and guests:

Talich：Aficionado of American politics, culture, and history

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

6月12日，美国商务部以国家安全为由，限制 Anthropic/Claude 最新模型 Mythos 5 和 Fable 5 向外国人开放。随后，Anthropic 将这两个刚刚发布、被视为公司最强能力代表的模型全线下架。一个 AI 产品更新，为什么会突然变成国家安全事件？所谓“外国人不能用”，又如何影响到整个 AI 行业？

本期我们从技术层面解释大语言模型的“护栏”：它为什么需要拒绝回答某些问题，为什么护栏太低会带来安全风险，护栏太高又会误伤正常科研和普通用户。Anthropic 一直主张 AI 监管，但当政府真的出手，监管又立刻变成出口管制、国籍边界、法律灰色地带和政治表态问题。

我们也把讨论推到更大的层面：Anthropic 的价值观、AI 公司与军方合作、硅谷加速主义者的反应、开源模型和 AI 安全之间的矛盾，以及特朗普和桑德斯都提到过的 AI 国有化、主权基金和全民分红。AI 不只是技术产品，也正在成为国家安全、文化战争、劳动力市场和人类社会未来秩序的一部分。

【推广】

我们和Superlinear Academy合作，为听众争取到了AI基础课程的优惠，使用专属折扣码购买可享受4-5折。

购买链接：coding.ai-builders.com

折扣码：美元购买MLMH，人民币购买MLMHY

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

01:13 Claude 最新模型被限，Anthropic 全线下架

05:23 技术、政治与意识形态如何交织

05:52 什么是大模型“越狱”和“护栏”

12:37 亚马逊、安全人员与模型漏洞举报

14:01 政府与 Anthropic 各执一词的罗生门

21:47 Anthropic 为什么主动呼吁 AI 监管

23:15 出口管制：美国能否限制外国人使用模型

30:12 Anthropic 的价值观、国家安全和军方合作

41:34 禁令会不会削弱美国 AI 的领先优势

43:40 硅谷加速主义者为何为 Anthropic 被锤叫好

45:03 白宫内部权力变化与 AI 政策走向

49:07 用户数据、文化战争与开源模型争议

53:12 从公司自律到国家入股：AI 巨头国有化想象

54:17 AI 冲击劳动力市场之后，社会如何分配红利

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

小华：媒体人

曹起曈：青椒，政治行为研究者

主播和嘉宾的言论不代表其所在机构或其雇主的观点。

【What We Talked About】

On June 12, the U.S. Commerce Department restricted access to Anthropic/Claude’s latest models, Mythos 5 and Fable 5, for foreign nationals on national security grounds. Anthropic then took both newly released models, widely seen as the company’s most capable systems, offline for all users. How did an AI product update suddenly become a national security incident? And how does a rule that “foreigners cannot use it” affect the entire AI industry?

In this episode, we explain the technical side of large language model “guardrails”: why models need to refuse certain requests, why guardrails that are too weak can create safety risks, and why guardrails that are too strict can interfere with legitimate research and ordinary users. Anthropic has long advocated for AI regulation, but once the government actually intervenes, regulation immediately turns into a question of export controls, national boundaries, legal gray areas, and political signaling.

We also broaden the discussion to Anthropic’s values, AI companies’ cooperation with the military, reactions from Silicon Valley accelerationists, the tension between open-source models and AI safety, and proposals raised by both Trump and Sanders around AI nationalization, sovereign wealth funds, and public dividends. AI is no longer just a technology product; it is becoming part of national security, the culture war, the labor market, and the future order of human society.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

01:13 Claude’s latest models are restricted, and Anthropic takes them offline

05:23 How technology, politics, and ideology become entangled

05:52 What “jailbreaking” and “guardrails” mean for large language models

12:37 Amazon, security researchers, and reports of model vulnerabilities

14:01 The competing narratives from the government and Anthropic

21:47 Why Anthropic has actively called for AI regulation

23:15 Export controls: can the U.S. restrict foreigners from using AI models?

30:12 Anthropic’s values, national security, and cooperation with the military

41:34 Will the ban weaken America’s lead in AI?

43:40 Why Silicon Valley accelerationists are cheering Anthropic’s troubles

45:03 Shifting power inside the White House and the future of AI policy

49:07 User data, culture-war politics, and the open-source model debate

53:12 From corporate self-regulation to state ownership: imagining AI nationalization

54:17 After AI disrupts the labor market, how should society share the gains?

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our hosts and guests:

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): Assistant professor at the Tufts Fletcher School

The views expressed by the host and guests do not represent the opinions of their employers or any affiliated institutions.

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

【聊了什么】

本期我们请来《翻转体育》主播Hualun，一起聊即将在美国、墨西哥和加拿大举行的世界杯。但这不是一期预测谁会夺冠的节目，而是借世界杯看美国：一个全球化程度最高的体育赛事，进入美国之后，会怎样撞上美国式的基础设施、城市规划、体育商业和政治现实？

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

01:29 雷暴、酷暑与美国基础设施的第一道考题

03:36 橄榄球场改足球场：人工草皮与球员体验

06:14 MetLife Stadium：纽约决赛为什么在新泽西

07:57 豪华球场之外，美国交通有多抽象

10:18 停车场国家如何承办世界杯决赛

13:15 天价球票、抽签和二级市场

21:31 美资进入欧洲足球，美国元素越来越重要

24:46 美国足球的崛起，以及它离欧洲主流还有多远

27:33 特朗普政府、旅行限制和远征球迷的麻烦

30:20 当政治人物开始表演“球迷身份”

36:31 MLS、梅西效应与美国足球能否真正出圈

45:21 不靠谱夺冠预测

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

小华：媒体人

Hualun：《翻转体育》主播

【What We Talked About】

In this episode, we are joined by Hualun, host of 泛转体育, for a conversation with Xiao Hua and Harry Wang about the upcoming World Cup in the United States, Mexico, and Canada. But this is not really a prediction episode about who will win. Instead, we use the World Cup as a lens to look at the United States: what happens when one of the most globalized sporting events runs into American infrastructure, urban planning, sports business, and politics?

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

01:29 Thunderstorms, summer heat, and the first infrastructure test

03:36 Converting NFL stadiums for soccer: turf, grass, and player experience

06:14 MetLife Stadium: why the New York final is actually in New Jersey

07:57 Luxury stadiums and America’s transportation problem

10:18 How does a parking-lot country host a World Cup final?

13:15 Sky-high ticket prices, lotteries, and the resale market

21:31 American capital enters European football

24:46 The rise of U.S. soccer, and how far it still is from Europe’s mainstream

27:33 The Trump administration, travel restrictions, and visiting fans

30:20 When politicians perform their identities as sports fans

36:31 MLS, the Messi effect, and whether U.S. soccer can truly break through

45:21 Tournament favorites: Spain, France, Argentina, or England?

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our hosts and guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

Hualun: Host of 《翻转体育》

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

Same Room 纽约华语播客节

纽约文化沙龙致力于拓展线下活动的公共性。我们主张众说纷纭而非整齐划一；我们拥抱多元视角而非标准答案。我们审视和反抗无意识的价值规训与随波逐流；我们冷酷地剖析自己的偏见，热忱地唤醒失落的维度。我们邀请每一颗寻找意义的心灵进入这个空间，真诚地感知、言说、倾听、理解。

这也是中文播客在这几年带给我们的力量之源。我们习惯于在异步时空中，独自聆听那些散落全球的美好中文——他们记录大时代、解构流行文化、观察城市与政治、想象参与世界的新方法……我们赞叹于那些独特的观点，并且渴望回应与共鸣。

于是我们决定：让这些声音在同一个空间回响。我们邀请来自 11 个播客的 12 位主播，从录音室出来，走进同一个房间，带着自己的叙事与视角，用声波碰撞，激荡出一个丰饶的公共声场。我们也邀请你，放下耳机，走进房间，成为塑造这个声场的在场者。

参与主播：

《起朱楼宴宾客》大卫翁

《疲惫娇娃》小杨

《美轮美换》Lokin

《城市传说》罗雨翔

《行星酒馆》东尼

《唠点纽约嗑》Rachel 47 / 杨蒙恩

《纽约漫谈录》欧阳斌

《残言片语》仁慈 / 伊如

《硅谷 101》/《新新人类》一闻

《选修课》老赵

活动形式：

三场对话，每场一小时。具体分组与话题会在未来公布。

时间：2026-06-14 周日 2-6 PM

地点：Cooper Union Rose Auditorium

地址：41 Cooper Sq, New York, NY 10008

报名链接：https://luma.com/1ver2cyw

【聊了什么】

本期我们请杨一回到节目，从 CBS《60分钟》一周之内的大清洗和 Scott Pelley 被解雇聊起。一个仍然赚钱、仍有收视率、仍是美国新闻界殿堂级的节目，为什么会突然陷入公开内战？Bari Weiss、Nick Bilton、Paramount/Skydance 并购以及Paramount和WBD合并、特朗普政府与 FCC 审查，又怎样共同构成了这场风波背后的权力结构？

我们也回顾《60分钟》的历史：Don Hewitt 如何把杂志叙事、明星记者和好莱坞式戏剧感带进电视新闻；它是怎样成为美国电视新闻的神话，又怎样影响中国观众对外媒和调查报道的想象。我们也讨论了在流媒体、算法和 AI 时代，这套电视新闻神话还能撑多久。

我们同时还聊了最近发生在美国网络媒体界的大新闻——BuzzFeed被收购和Vox Media旗下New York Magazine、Vox.com和Vox Media Podcast Network被Jame Murdoch部分收购，这部分内容将在《去现场》播出，欢迎关注《去现场》收听更多内容。

【支持我们】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去：

也欢迎加入我们的会员计划： https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

会员可以收到每周2-5封newsletter，可以加入会员社群，参加会员活动，并享受更多福利。

合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

02:02 CBS《60分钟》大清洗与 Scott Pelley 被解雇

09:27 为什么《60分钟》被视为美国新闻业的“大教堂”

13:22 Bari Weiss、Paramount 与 CBS 新权力结构

17:37 萨尔瓦多监狱报道被叫停：纸媒思维误入电视台

20:17 《60分钟》为何能成为殿堂级节目

21:22 Don Hewitt 如何创造电视新闻杂志

31:32 好莱坞叙事、明星记者与调查报道的黄金时代

35:22 烟草调查与《60分钟》的新闻理想神话

38:52 《60分钟》与中国

51:47 《60分钟》在 CBS 内部的特殊地位

55:52 《60分钟》的模式还能撑多久

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

小华：媒体人

杨一：旅欧媒体人，播客《去现场》主播

【 What We Talked About】

In this episode, Yang Yi returns to the show as we begin with a week of turmoil inside CBS’s 60 Minutes: a sweeping purge of senior staff and the firing of Scott Pelley. How did a program that is still profitable, still watched, and still regarded as one of the great institutions of American journalism end up in open internal war? And how do Bari Weiss, Nick Bilton, the Paramount/Skydance and Paramount/WBD merger, the Trump administration, and FCC scrutiny together shape the power structure behind this crisis?

We also look back at the history of 60 Minutes: how Don Hewitt brought magazine-style storytelling, star correspondents, and a Hollywood sense of drama into television news; how the show became a myth of American TV journalism; and how it shaped Chinese audiences’ imagination of foreign media and investigative reporting. We also ask how much longer this model of television news can survive in the age of streaming, algorithms, and AI.

We also discussed two major recent developments in American digital media: the acquisition of BuzzFeed, and James Murdoch’s partial acquisition of New York Magazine, Vox.com, and the Vox Media Podcast Network under Vox Media. That part of the conversation will be released on 去现场. Follow 去现场 for more.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

00:00 Opening note: this episode and the On the Ground preview

02:02 The purge at CBS’s 60 Minutes and the firing of Scott Pelley

09:27 Why 60 Minutes is seen as a “cathedral” of American journalism

13:22 Bari Weiss, Paramount, and the new power structure at CBS

17:37 The pulled El Salvador prison segment: when print-media thinking enters television

20:17 How 60 Minutes became an institution

21:22 How Don Hewitt created the TV news magazine

31:32 Hollywood storytelling, star correspondents, and the golden age of investigative TV

35:22 The tobacco investigation and the journalistic idealism behind 60 Minutes

38:52 60 Minutes and China

51:47 The special status of 60 Minutes inside CBS

55:52 How much longer can the 60 Minutes model survive?

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

杨一：Europe-based Media Professional; Host of 去现场

Support on Patreon | 爱发电上赞助

Same Room 纽约华语播客节

沙龙致力于拓展线下活动的公共性。我们主张众说纷纭而非整齐划一；我们拥抱多元视角而非标准答案。我们审视和反抗无意识的价值规训与随波逐流；我们冷酷地剖析自己的偏见，热忱地唤醒失落的维度。我们邀请每一颗寻找意义的心灵进入这个空间，真诚地感知、言说、倾听、理解。

这也是中文播客在这几年带给我们的力量之源。我们习惯于在异步时空中，独自聆听那些散落全球的美好中文——他们记录大时代、解构流行文化、观察城市与政治、想象参与世界的新方法……我们赞叹于那些独特的观点，并且渴望回应与共鸣。

于是我们决定：让这些声音在同一个空间回响。我们邀请来自 11 个播客的 12 位主播，从录音室出来，走进同一个房间，带着自己的叙事与视角，用声波碰撞，激荡出一个丰饶的公共声场。我们也邀请你，放下耳机，走进房间，成为塑造这个声场的在场者。

参与主播：

《起朱楼宴宾客》大卫翁

《疲惫娇娃》小杨

《美轮美换》Lokin

《城市传说》罗雨翔

《行星酒馆》东尼

《唠点纽约嗑》Rachel 47 / 杨蒙恩

《纽约漫谈录》欧阳斌

《残言片语》仁慈 / 伊如

《硅谷 101》/《新新人类》一闻

《选修课》老赵

活动形式：

三场对话，每场一小时。具体分组与话题会在未来公布。

时间：2026-06-14 周日 2-6 PM

地点：Cooper Union Rose Auditorium

地址：41 Cooper Sq, New York, NY 10008

报名链接：https://luma.com/1ver2cyw

【聊了什么】

五月的特朗普，活在两个截然不同的美国里。党外，他的支持率跌到 34% 上下的历史低点，油价冲破每加仑 4 美元、部分州突破 5 美元，民众一边为夏天的出行账单肉痛，一边看着华盛顿忙着把总统头像印上 250 美元纪念钞、给林肯纪念堂旁的雕像镀 24K 金；党内，他却把"复仇之旅"推向高潮——卡西迪、马西、康宁三位现任参议员接连在初选中落马，党内地位达到随心所欲的封神状态。

本期我们从伊朗僵局聊起，一路谈到 17.76 亿的反武器化基金、选区重划的焦土战争，中期选举最新形势，以及万斯的失势与卢比奥的崛起。

本期节目录制于美国时间5月31日。

【支持我们】

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合作投稿邮箱：[email protected]

【时间轴】

1:53 伊朗战争还能否收场

8:31 油价飞涨：夏天为何是选举前的经济观察窗口

12:35 17.76 亿反武器化基金：起诉自家 IRS，再和解套现

20:59 华盛顿面子工程：250 美元纪念钞与白宫东翼舞厅

23:56 特朗普的历史级低支持率

25:54 选区重划博弈：弗吉尼亚、南卡到阿拉巴马

37:19 特朗普的复仇之旅：连斩卡西迪、马西、康宁三位参议员

43:23 康宁 vs 帕克斯顿：蝎子与青蛙的寓言与选情

56:12 民主党：缅因 Platner 丑闻与加州初选

1:03:52 2028 风向：万斯失势、卢比奥崛起与"帝王之术"

【我们是谁】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

本期的主播和嘉宾：

王浩岚：美国政治爱好者，岚目公众号主笔兼消息二道贩子

小华：媒体人

【 What We Talked About】

In May, Trump lived in two entirely different Americas. Outside the party, his approval sank to a record low of around 34%, gas prices broke $4 a gallon (over $5 in some states), and while Americans winced at their summer travel bills, Washington was busy putting the president's face on a $250 commemorative bill and gilding a statue near the Lincoln Memorial in 24K gold. Inside the party, however, he pushed his "revenge tour" to its peak — sitting Senators Cassidy, Massie, and Cornyn all fell in their primaries, cementing his grip on the GOP to the point of near-total dominance.

This episode runs from the Iran stalemate to the $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" fund, the scorched-earth battle over redistricting, the latest midterm outlook, and Vance's decline alongside Rubio's rise.

Recorded May 31.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Join our membership program: https://theamericanroulette.com/paid-membership/

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: [email protected]

【Timeline】

1:53 Iran: Is There Any Way Out of This War?

8:31 Surging Gas Prices: Why Summer Is the Economic Window Before an Election

12:35 The $1.776B Anti-Weaponization Fund: Suing Your Own IRS, Then Settling for Cash

20:59 Washington's Vanity Projects: The $250 Bill and the White House East Wing Ballroom

23:56 Trump's Historic Low Approval

25:54 The Redistricting Wars: From Virginia to South Carolina to Alabama

37:19 Trump's Revenge Tour: Taking Down Cassidy, Massie, and Cornyn

43:23 Cornyn vs. Paxton: The Scorpion and the Frog, in Texas

56:12 The Democrats: Maine's Platner Scandal and California's Primary

1:03:52 Eyes on 2028: Vance's Fall, Rubio's Rise, and the Art of the Throne

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

Our Hosts and Guests:

王浩岚 (Haolan Wang): American political enthusiast, chief writer at Lán Mù WeChat Official Account, and peddler of information

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

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