In the latest episode of the STR Data Lab, Jamie Lane and co-host Scott Sage break down May's U.S. market performance. They highlight a 7% increase in available listings—the lowest growth seen in three years—and an 11% rise in demand, which has led to a 3% increase in occupancy rates. Despite these gains, occupancy rates still trail behind 2019 levels, albeit with signs of a rebounding market.

Jamie points out that the average daily rate (ADR) growth is up 1.5%, with a noticeable shift towards larger rental units. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) has also seen a promising increase of 4.5%, signaling a positive shift after two consecutive years of declines. However, urban centers like New York and San Francisco are experiencing a drop in listings due to regulatory challenges, in contrast to the growth seen in suburban, mountain, and coastal regions.

The duo discusses the slowdown in supply growth, attributing it to cautious new investment and market conditions. They highlight robust performance in smaller and mid-sized cities like Bloomington, Buffalo, and Albany. The conversation also covers the impact of international travel dynamics, the strength of the dollar, and the critical role of marketing the U.S. as a welcoming destination.

Looking ahead, Jamie and Scott forecast stable demand growth at around 6-7%, driven by overall travel spend and short-term rental adoption. They emphasize the resilience of the upscale and luxury segments, which are outperforming due to limited supply and growing demand. Jamie predicts a slight increase in RevPAR for 2024 and more substantial growth in 2025, contingent on stable supply growth and favorable economic conditions.

The episode concludes with a discussion on potential wild cards, such as interest rate changes and their impact on investment in the short-term rental market. The hosts express cautious optimism for the sector, advising operators to focus on differentiated, high-quality offerings to maintain a competitive advantage.

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Episode 86